More on War


More on the topic I introduced yesterday. I’ve been reading about the Stuxnet attack on the centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran. There’s also Alex Gibney’s documentary Zero Days – available on Showtime. Now that I more fully understand what David Sanger of The New York Times has been talking with Charlie Rose about over the past few years, it gives me pause to wonder. Why would Iran, essentially attacked cybernetically by the US, agree to the Nuclear Deal with the Obama Administration?

Some think Iran gave up its nuclear ambitions early in the new millennial decade, and the to-do over nuclear development was more for home grown consumption – to enrich members of The Revolutionary Guard and keep nationalist fervor at a peak. I suppose that’s possible. But when Ahmadinejad went too far in provoking the Israelis, is it possible they were convinced Israel would attack and destroy the nuclear sites that may or may not have been operating? Or did the deal with Obama just buy them time? Or maybe some or all of the above is true?

One thing of which I’m sure: there will be consequences for Stuxnet. Think Libya’s Lockerbee bombing in retaliation for Reagan’s attack on Gaddafi’s home that killed his stepchild. The Reagan attack was retaliation for a Berlin discotheque bombing carried out by Libyan nationals. Osama and Al Qaeda were responsible for various bombings in retaliation for US troops’ presence in Saudi Arabia. These bombings included the embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia (although Iran and Hezbollah were blamed as cover for our relationship with the Saudis) and, of course, the Twin Towers. So the bottom line here is that revenge is baked into the DNA of the residents of the Middle East. I’m highly dubious they will turn the other cheek after what we and Israel have done to them – and likely continue to do to them – with cyberwarfare.

I expect they now have turned their attention and resources from nuclear to cyber. I fully expect to see them retaliate in an oh so big way – within this decade. And when they do, you’d best be prepared…you know, the chickens – the garden…but also a full house generator run by a separate LP gas tank. Yes, as soon as we have the resources, I intend to invest in such an outfit.

And what will our new administration do about all this? First, they will likely withdraw from the agreement with Iran, and Congress will vote to re-introduce sanctions. But what about the rest of the countries party to the agreement – UK, France, Russia and China – where will they be on this? My best guess is they’ll want to leave it alone. There’s nothing in it for them to revisit the agreement. This is particularly true in light of the fact that Iran – possibly allied with Russia and/or China – will go after us. And with the trade sanctions imposed by DtheT on China, and Putin having a new, best buddy in the White House – China will have justification and Russia will be emboldened to do so. The eyes of the rest of the world will be averted. We will get our comeuppance. Bigly. Ouch.

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