Day 432 and the topic du jour is again the weather – should we stay or should we flee to Tallahassee? That is the question we are currently waffling about.

My instinct is to stay put, dashing the hopes of in-house daughter that she’ll have the house to herself, weather be damned. Yeah – that makes as much sense to me as the current model runs.

What we got here is failure to communicate (Strother Martin, Cool Hand Luke). The two pre-eminent models, the European and the GFS – otherwise known as the American – don’t agree on where the eye of the storm is going. Thus far, neither has been particularly accurate with this hurricane. It was supposed to hit Puerto Rico (bless their hearts) but instead, changed course and hit the Virgin Islands. The American model has been updated this year, so it’s the maiden voyage for the ‘new and improved’ version. Wonderful. It says the storm will hit Florida somewhere near Jacksonville. The European model has been the most accurate the last few years in predicting storm paths, and it’s the one that says Dorian is going to hit us dead on. So what does the weather service do? The split the difference between the two and predict a mid-state direct hit. Either way, at least half of the east coast of Florida will be hit simultaneous with what’s referred to as king tides. What’s that? Higher than normal tides that coincide with new or full moons. That will occur just about the time the storm makes landfall in Florida. Coastal areas will see longer retention times for water because it can’t recede with the higher tides. Not our problem.

What to do? Prepare as best we can. The generator works; we have flashlights and lanterns for when we lose power. We have a gas cooktop, gas hot water heater and gas dryer, so they will all be available to use. Just have to ensure a steady gasoline supply to keep the generator fed…the Achilles heel of hurricane preparedness. The local gas stations all seem to run out about the same time. Ah well…we’ll just KBO.

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