It seems like just about every day scientists learn something new about the Cvirus. The latest news is about so-called ‘superspreaders’.
This appears to be likely an example of Pareto’s Law, which has been with us since the beginning. You know, Pareto’s Law? It’s the Principle, really, that says 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. Vilfredo Pareto figured this out at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland in 1896. It is noteworthy for how often it appears in our lives.
Earlier, I’d noticed that 80% of the cases in the US were occurring in 20% of the states. Drilling down to Florida, 80% of the cases were occurring in 20% of the counties. It is likely that the 80 for 20 is also true for zip codes within the county, if you could somehow access that data in a convenient way. You can find it on Rebekah Johnson’s ArcGIS map, but it wouldn’t be that easy to access the data to do the calculation. Anyway, we’ll assume it’s so.
But now, we are considering the possibility that 20% of people that get the virus are responsible for spreading it to 80% of the new ‘hosts’ that haven’t yet been so afflicted. These are the super-spreaders, and they occur 80% of the time in the younger generation, the cut off being age 60. So it’s ok to hang out with old people, but avoid them youngsters – they can shed virus like nobody’s business.
So what are the implications of this fact? Yes, Virginia, we’re talking about when school starts. These little curtain climbers will go back to school, give the virus to one another, and then bring it home to grandma and grandpa, who will get very ill from the virus.
So is there no hope? Nothing that can be done? So far, the advice is not to hang out at the bar, elbow to elbow with young folks tippling and shouting at one another. Also, gotta give up that karaoke bar. No singing ’til there’s a vaccine. Oh, damn..and I was so hoping to go sing Nobody Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen at a karaoke bar. Puh lease.
And what’s the market up to? Yo-yoing between 25 and 27k on the Dow. Money is just going around those infamous musical chairs. It will be thus until something fundamentally changes, one way or the other. When Fauci says we could have 100k cases per day, I think he believes there’s nothing that can stop the virus. That puts a damper on the market. The next day, there’s a news release about some new drug trial that looks promising. The market goes up. Up down, up down…enough to make a body dizzy. The answer? Wear your mask and stay away from the stock market.
Baseball is supposed to start at the end of July. How long will it stay open? Will staff and players get sufficiently sick to close it down again? Will the owners cry in their beer about how much money they’ve lost this season? Answers: likely about a month. Probably. Definitely. There you have it! Will I watch? Not likely. Half a season probably won’t even get noted in the stat books, all things considered. Might be fun to watch the Astros play and get heckled to death. Get out your trash can to beat on, everyone!
My temperature is 98.0 F. My blood oxygen is 97% and my heartbeat is 76 bpm. Feelin’ barely satisfactory (too much stale air – not enough outside time, alas).