Lots to talk about today, having saved up for three whole days. Inspiration sometimes takes a little while to rise.
On Wednesday, I watched the webinar entitled Survivors of Coronavirus May Hold the Secret to Stopping Covid-19. However, his presentation wasn’t really about using affected people’s plasma directly. It was another take on Scripps’ work developing what they refer to as monoclonal antibodies in the lab.
The first part of the presentation was about the Cvirus itself, and how it works. We’ve seen that already, so move on. Then he described the body’s reaction to the virus. This was the slide he used.
Antibody tests detect the binding antibody, rather than the neutralizing. As a result, there’s no way to tell how effect human’s antibodies are from their plasma to help other infected people. That was it. Move on to other topics. And here I thought we were going to talk about the effectiveness of that plasma as a treatment – just because that’s what the title implied. Nope.
Next he talked about all the different types of vaccines being developed. Here’s that illustration:
None of these is how Scripps intends to pursue a treatment for SARS-2. Instead, they will take antibodies from humans that have been infected, define the ‘shape’ of the key part of the S protein, replicate that shape in the lab, inject it into other humans and watch which they develop antibodies. Using the lab gets at the need for billions of doses of this treatment, instead of taking it straight from the human donor.
But then again, we’re still stuck with the time frame: 12-18 months, and that’s if everything goes well. You and I both know things are not and probably will not go well in the near future. I’m suggesting third quarter of 2022 before we will have this treatment available on a widespread basis. They’ll work with health care workers first. Why? Because the results are terrible and we need those health care workers.
Yesterday, according to Worldometer, there were over 28,000 new cases and 1400 deaths in the US. So, you say, that’s not all that different. Actually, it is. Where prior to this, 80% of the cases were occurring in 20% of the states, now they’re spread out all over the country. As we ‘open’ more states, more cases of Cvirus are being developed. As of 2:30 today, we are seeing nearly 12,000 new cases. Here’s what I find fascinating. Each day, if you divide the total number of deaths by the total number of cases in the US, you get a fairly consistent 6%. Yesterday was 96354/1620902 = 5.94%. It is fairly constant, which says to me that the death rate is remaining consistent. Alternatively, if you look at the closed cases, the ratio of recovered to dead is 80%/20%. In Italy, for most of the most difficult time for them, that ratio was 60%/40%. Now Italy is 99% recovered/1% dead. What does that tell me? The Cvirus has run its course in Italy, and moved on to other shores to infect you and me. While it was there, Italy had a death rate of 539/million population. We are currently at 294 per million. Assuming the virus behaves here as it behaved there, we will see over 172,000 people lose their lives. Right now, we’re at 97,102. So we’re likely about half done with this pandemic before it exhausts all its hosts.
Those are rather sobering numbers. But what’s the takeaway? Continue to self-isolate. Eat right and get enough sleep. Wash your hands. Take your temperature and get one of those oximeters that snaps on your middle finger of your left hand. It measures your blood oxygen and heartbeats. According to Dr. Eric Topol, your heartbeat increases before you even get a fever. Early detection and treatment is often the key to survival if you should get it.
Other news? Ray contacted our old writing group. The person he emailed did not recognize his name. We went there at least 4 times, and everybody loved Ray’s work. Our conclusion? We should start our own writers’ group right here in Jupiter. Name? Jupiter Writer’s Guild/Wranglin’ Writers. I like it. Guild implies professionalism; no rank amateurs we. And Wranglin’ Writers is intended to convey that we engage in long, complicated disputes or arguments. No superficial writers, we. Very cool. I’ve even had business cards make up to reflect that. Can’t wait to start handing them out.
Finally, I did as I said I was going to, and contacted my therapist for a Zoom session. We did that yesterday, and it was good – maybe better than in person. We’ll have another session next week and likely for the duration. Why go out if you can Zoom in?
I love it. My temperature is 98.1° F. My blood oxygen is 96% and my heartbeat is 85 bpm. Still alive.