I just updated Word Press, so now I have to get used to a new format. I’ll survive – I’m confident.

Today is day 439 prior to the election. Biden is still ahead by double digits, even though it doesn’t appear he’s doing anything to promote his candidacy. I’d argue the best thing he can do for himself – and us – is to keep his yap shut. The less he talks, the more likely it will be that he will defeat the biggest mouth in the west. I believe we’re all tired of the ‘jaw-jacking’ as folk in southwest Georgia are wont to say.

So keep it up, Señor Biden…Mum’s the word; less said the better; shut it; no talking, por favor; silence is golden.

Was having a bad day yesterday; got up too early and then got interrupted every time I tried to lie down again..so didn’t try to write until evening…then found the site to be down..thank you, as always, dear brother John for fixing the server.

So what’s on tap for today? I guess I’m still thinking about the economy…a quick glance at Marketwatch and I find the Dow is down a trifle, on news about the bond market being inverted…yes, it is and it will likely stay that way for a while. It takes a fair length of time for the recession to show up after this indicator starts beeping.

Paul Krugman’s column is about Trump picking a fight with Europe over tariffs (dumb) and how wrong-headed the Germans have been about debt (they have some experience with too much of it) and how they need to spend on infrastructure – as do we. Geez…duh..duh..duh.

Why do we keep repeating these things over and over? Several reasons. Start with Japan. Instead of taking the pain of writing off zombie loans, they poured money into building what is now referred to as ‘bridges to nowhere’. Japan – the same country that brought you the Fukushima disaster – clearly has some institutional/cultural issues that keep getting in their way to righting their tilting ship – tilting for the past 20 years. They have demographic issues; gender issues (women no longer wanting to be stay at home moms – gee I wonder why? Another DUH!) and they have no immigration. But I digress…Japan is held up as the reason why countries like Germany avoid spending on needed infrastructure to try to stimulate a moribund economy. It was Larry Summers that proposed the idea of negative interest rates, which Europe adopted…helped a bit … but not really.

Then there’s nationalist politics. You can’t fight demographics unless you’re willing to embrace immigration, which Europe is now not willing to do. So everybody is doing exactly the wrong thing to fix their problems and political economists are cheering on the wrong headed ideas because of ideology, not pragmatism. It appears to be the story of the moment…everywhere. Where is another John Maynard Keynes when you need him – or her?

How will all this end? Wow – the shadow? Already showed him. War. That’s the next logical step..feels a bit overdue, you say? Be careful what you wish for.

I’m sorry this isn’t a better post – I need to get focused on book 3, and not get so distracted by current events. Try to do better tomorrow.

“For what shall it profit a man if he shall gain the whole world and lose his soul?” Matthew 8:36

Didn’t write yesterday ’cause the lovely Susan, Patricia Mary and I did our quarterly brunch..I tried to be a better listener yesterday instead of talking…it was nice.

Back to the title..did a lot of Bible quoting from mostly the OT in the first two books; now on to the NT for book 3. But this quote stuck in my mind as I was reading Neal Irwin, Ross Douthat and some other guy named Ruchir Sharma who works for Morgan Stanley and contributes pieces to the currently being scalded NYT. But you have to invert it for current reality. How about “For what shall it profit America and the planet if we shall regain our souls and lose the whole world?”

A recession be a comin’ people, is the consensus perspective. All the indicators are there when dem bones be thrown. It was Douthat who exclaimed that Trump would be blamed when the recession comes and it would be his undoing. Several of the commentators for Irwin’s piece decried the reality that Republicans always cause the recessions and the Democrats have to clean up the mess. Reminds me of the great quote from Mrs. Lintott (The History Boys), whom I have quoted before..

“History is a commentary on the various and continuing incapabilities of men. What is history? History is women following behind with the bucket.”

A slight variation required here: American history is a commentary on the various and continuing incapabilities of Republican men..history is Democrat women following behind with the bucket.”

What are the current demographics of the two parties in terms of gender? Hmm..let’s check.. why it’s 56% Democrat, 37% Republican and 7% Independent or whatever else (like Libertarian or Green or other small affiliations). So there are half again more women pursuing the Democratic path versus the Republican road at the moment, so I stand by phraseology; not Democrats and women but Democrat women. We will make all the difference?

But back to my point from the quote. Douthat I suppose wants Trump to be defeated; he and Bill Maher are pining for a recession that will pull the plug on the Trump dynasty of one term. But clearly this is a case of be careful what you wish for…if the equality divide is wide, a recession will make it decidedly wider. Can America – or the world – handle that? Nope. But alternatively, is there anything that can be done to stop the decline? Of course! In this order, we should 1) negotiate an end to the tariff wars; 2) have another referendum and stop the Brexit insanity; 3) summon another Bretton Woods to stabilize national currencies to facilitate global cooperation. What are the odds that these three things will happen, in or out of the requisite order? About 5.25%. Where’d I get that number? Out of my left ear. But wait and see what happens…only the shadow knows…

So 444 more days and all is decidedly not well. The rumbling on Wall Street after German numbers got put up indicates skittishness on the part of investors. We’re talking about the Fed taking back two interest rate increases so Mr. Powell can keep his job. What a bunch of complete cowards. We’ll pay for that down the road.

How does one play all this, if one is retired and has a semi-positive cash flow but is looking to the future? Ms. Orman would tell you to pay off all your debts and hunker down. I think that’s wrong. There was a time to buy stocks; it’s ended. There was a time to buy real estate – that’s big time over. So what to do now? Nothing. Don’t change anything. I intend to KBO, as the market softens and goes down to less than 20k by year’s end. I intend to keep working on the Tallahassee house, replacing the kitchen flooring (gotta call that flooring guy in Tally) and then working on the stairs – removing the carpet and staining the wood if it’s decent, or adding risers if not – likely with the help of that flooring guy. So yes, I will be spending money, but not on the Jupiter house. I think in the end I will end up with Kirsten in Tally in about 6 years. The Jupiter house will sell, not because of the house but because of the land. I think developers will buy next store and persuade the county to let them build mini-mansions on the 29.5 acre plot – Hovnanian opened that door and others will walk through. That will certainly not hurt our land value. But the house will need a new roof by then, and it’ll be time to move on.

Enough about that – the writing on book 3 is going well; I’m enlisting Emily and Susan R’s help with illustrating it. Yes, a picture book. Makes sense when my prime character is a 16 year old girl named Maya – sanskrit for illusion..or better description, a human who can make people think illusion is real. She’s gonna grow up fast, and a couple decades later, come back to be the major character in the second series – after the dissolution of America. I will start thinking more about that outline. Need a name for it.

All of this has come about because of the extension of Maggie Atwood’s Handmaid’s Tale – currently in season 3 on Hulu. The final episode – #13 – showed that strong women can and will sacrifice to save children. And that’s what America will need when our Giliad comes to pass. You have to admit, Mags really knew something when she put this notion out there – back in the 80’s. I’m just picking up on what she and the other writers that carried it forward began.

That’s all. Gonna go call that flooring guy.

Scrolling back through the years, I found the post starting to talk about the 2016 election – 445 days before it occurred. How about that – this is not a new phenomenon for me. But on day 445, I predicted that Hillary Clinton should not be given the Democrat nod, because she couldn’t win the general election, if pitted against establishment Republican candidates like Jeb Bush. There were several reasons why. First, after two Democrat terms, voters would be itchy for a change. Second: she was likely the most hated woman in America. Nonetheless, I thought maybe she could pull it off when competing with a demagogue like DtheT. Clearly that was wrong-headed thinking.

So this time, what are the Dems thinking of doing? Nominating Elizabeth Warren. Do we not learn, people? Fact: voters do not vote FOR candidates; they vote AGAINST candidates. Elizabeth Warren is possibly not as hated as Hillary, because she has less history. But in the end, I’d argue we will stick with the incumbent, rather than choose someone who the average voter doesn’t know and certainly doesn’t trust. So it goes to “the devil you know is better than the indian maiden you don’t know.”

So if I were to make a prediction now – wait for it – OLD Uncle Joe will continue with the gaffes, which the millennials will use as an excuse to not vote for him and it will be a head to head race between Bernie the Big Head and Loonie Lizzie. DtheT will win in a landslide. You heard it here first. No surprise – right?

I’ve already factored him in to win in my fiction…so things will get worse, per my soothsaying. How much worse? Much..not because of DtheT per se, but because his candidacy, election, presidency and re-election are totems for the condition America finds itself in. And that is why I write – the entire 5 book series will tell the tale of our downward descent into dissolution. ‘Cause that is where we are headed. Dissolution. Say it again: dissolution. No longer these United States, but separate countries, more like the breakup of the Soviet Union but in reverse – going from democracy to something new that, as yet, have no names. But they’ll be geographic, north, south, east, west. Different entities with different names, flags, capitals, anthems and borders. State legislatures will pool together to make parliaments of sorts. So in practice, it’ll be like the European Union. You won’t necessarily see border guards – too many roads in and out of each area. But you might see fencing. And relations with our borders to the north and south? They’ll be the heroes. And who first came up with this idea? Why, Maggie Atwood, of course, in creating Giliad out of a piece of America. Yes, Virginia, the new America will have its own Gilead in the heartland. And who will be the ultimate victims of all this political and economic dissolution? The next generations of children, who will suffer mightily. But this time, it won’t be caused by a bloody civil war. It will end, to quote Eliot, “not with a bang but a whimper.” That is what I’m writing about..dammit.

Man, 446 days ’til the you know what seems like forever. So maybe if I break it down into pieces, it won’t seem so far away.

OK – milestones. My next book, And Forbid Them Not comes out on Labor Day, September 2nd. So that’s 19 days from now. So that’ll be day 427. The next book, Let Them Come Unto Me comes out on Halloween. That is 59 days later, so that’ll be day 368. Incidentally, October 31st is also the deadline that could lead to a No Deal Brexit..just thought you’d wanna know… Three days later, and it’ll be exactly a year ’til the election. I think that does help a bit!

So there you have it…the best way to eat an elephant – or prepare to defeat the elephant – is one bite at a time. Ciao.

days left til the election and the news is all over the place – who’s ahead, who’s slipping, will “Uncle Joe’s” gaffes ruin his chances – especially since he’s the front runner?

I’m beginning to think Lizzie Warren and Bernie the big head have the right idea – Medicare for all. Let’s go ahead and turn into the equivalent of the British health service that’s broke and can’t attract good help because of low pay. But at least everyone will have coverage, right? Hmm..be careful what you wish for. We strive for mediocrity in all things, and we’re decidedly on the path to attain it.

The economy is showing signs of softness but it’ll take something more than the tariff war to send it into a tailspin. Even mediocre (there’s that word again) corporate profits haven’t been enough to kill the Dow. Why? Too much of ‘other people’s money’ to throw into a stock market so overheated it’s spewing lava…there’s that reference to all of us on islands in the volcano again. But really, people, isn’t that the case? Don’t you sometimes feel like you’re holding your breath, waiting for the next headline? Mass shootings; financial fraud revealed; financial fraud accompanied by sex crimes accompanied by spectacular suicide..now that’s fodder for every grist mill out there. Poor Jeffrey – escaped at every turn, but finally brought really low by greedy lawyers talking stupid girls into telling their seamy stories…we live in the pages of the National Enquirer..which is also going broke. Sigh.

OK..is there anything good out there on the horizon? I’m thinking … thinking…no, not really.

HBO started a 10 part series last night called Our Boys about two incidents from 2014 in Jerusalem. Three Israeli boys are kidnapped and murdered, ostensibly by somebody on the other side of the literal wall. So somebody exacts revenge by kidnapping, torturing and murdering a sixteen year old Arab boy. Only two episodes of the series so far, but what I’ve seen makes clear three things. First – nationalism is alive and well in Israel, aided, abetted – nay promulgated – by Bibi Netanyahu to maintain his power and corruption. Israel is as divided – between ultra religious and secular – as the US is red and blue. Second – the police are inept interviewers, always assuming the worst about their neighbors on the other side of the wall instead of taking their problems seriously and trying to address real issues. And third – it doesn’t take much to spark violence between the groups. Moreover, there are very few folks – on either side – trying to staunch the emotion that leads to violence. Yes, boys and girls, brothers and sisters, Israel is sitting on a powder keg of its own creation. By trying to ensure the holocaust never happens again, the youth of Israel have become ever so much like their former persecutors from the earlier days of Nazism. And the Israeli Arabs look and often act like the Jews from the WW II vintage Warsaw ghetto. It’s a bizarre situation; can’t see how it’ll get better any time soon. But one thing this series does, that is so vitally important if there is to be some kind of solution: it puts a human face on and gives a back story to – all these teenaged boys. Why can’t we all just get along?

…you know the rest. School started today for Emily and Kiernan. Em is back at Jupiter High; Kiernan starts first grade at Franklin Academy. Here’s the first day of school annual pic.

It feels like every time there’s another mass shooting, it boosts the beliefs on both sides of the debate. All common sense has gone out of the window. When it adds to the demographic reality that life spans are decreasing in the US, will anyone pay attention – or even care to try to change it? We all seem to live on different islands in the same pool of hot lava. Does it ever occur to anybody that putting those islands together is the only way to get out of the volcano?

Apparently not. Greed and ideology are a toxic mix…tho’ the purveyors of the isms have more of the greed than the philosophy. Grows tiresome. Are we just holding our breath, waiting for the next shooting to whip up the same debates that go nowhere? On average, there’s one every two weeks, so another week to go and boom! We’ll be at it again.

Where will it happen? Shopping mall? How about using the old double trick used by jihadis of two bombs – one immediate and one delayed – to maximize the casualties and get those first responders that steal the limelight from these true believers? It’s all insanity, but real nonetheless. Thoughts and prayers won’t make it stop. Electing Joe Biden probably won’t make it stop. And turning the US into a gun-free dictatorship isn’t the answer either. It’ll take another generation, but we need to change the culture that makes these guys step out from behind the laptop console and go targeting real people. According to one guy who allegedly ‘deprograms’ white supremecists, their goal is not to outdo one another – it’s to match little Timmy McVeigh’s record at Oklahoma City. Will it wind down after that? Nope – just create a new record to try to exceed.

But what are the actual odds of being killed in a mass shooting in America? Impossible to say – six different articles on the internet have six different numbers. But I think it’s safe to say the odds are less than normal ways to be accidentally killed – car, motorcycle or bike wrecks come to mind. But if you go in your car without a seatbelt being buckled; or on your bike without a helmet, then you are increasing your odds. With the number of guns in America such that there is one for every man, woman and child, there wouldn’t be much you could do to prevent it – maybe other than wearing a kevlar vest all the time. But that would likely increase your chances of being killed by a cop. You must be ready to shoot – otherwise, why would you be wearing kevlar?

Not a good situation. But we’ll just KBO (keep buggering on..thank you, Winston).

A mere 449 days left until the election, and we’re all biding our time and hoping to survive until that day of nerves or nirvana. I, for one, am skeptical that any of the current Democratic candidates can survive the race intact – and that the party as a whole can rally ’round one candidate. So I’m preparing myself for the worst…fodder for the writing mill, if nothing else.

Research for a major project is always interesting and sometimes enlightening. I’ve been doing family history research in preparation for writing something called Clemmie – about an uncle who died 75 years ago in Weewak, New Guinea. Questions we didn’t know how enough to ask are now being both asked and answered in my attempt at authenticity in the writing. If that is possible, then the product will be good…although the writing of it will require a leap of faith. I find it difficult to put into outline form that which will become the dialogue necessary to tell the story. It’s a mashup of Field of Dreams and Lincoln at the Bardo. Heaven is a house in south Miami which no longer exists – did you know that?

Of Days left before the November 3rd election to rid us of this meddlesome pest (quote from Henry II re: Becket – with slight modification)

Trump ain’t no priest, that’s for sure, much less an Archbishop. But his followers do think him a martyr for a cause – one that’s on the verge of death..no more white supremecy.

But let’s talk about China. Gzero’s annoying Ian Bremmer provided perspective. Sadly, he should have been taking notes when Charlie Rose interviewed him. He and Ammanpour make the same deadly mistake of monopolizing the conversation instead of letting the subject speak. Anyway, the perspective? There are three perspectives on the trade war with China. One from a Democrat politician (useless), one from a Chinese ex-pat finance gal and one from a former Prime Minister of Australia. Interesting sources, eh?

Forget about the Dem politician – gave Trump kudos for starting the trade war by confronting China’s violation of WTO rules, then trashed him for his methodology for dealing with the aftermath – cause he coulda done better? Don’t know – Gzero boy didn’t ask him.

The Chinese lady in finance says Trump’s trade war is actually helping China by forcing it to be more independent of its manufacturing base. I agree with this point. But she didn’t look beyond it – bring on the Aussie Ambassador.

He made two good points. First: China negotiated the way it always did – promise until it’s time to sign and then waffle on accountability. That’s how we got in trouble in the first place. But he added a second good point. Xi has stepped out from where the old guard was – taking a much more assertive lead in global economic affairs for which he is vulnerable to his many enemies within the party. Reference President Rouhani of Iran signing onto the nuclear treaty, with lots of criticism from the power brokers in the Republican Guard.

But Xi perceived a global weakness in leadership and decided to use China’s vast resources to maneuver things to China’s benefit. And who did he emulate in doing this? Why, the US of course. Same situation was occurring after WW II, and the Marshal plan was instituted – ostensibly to held rebuild Europe, but in reality to transition America’s manufacturing from war materiél to bricks and steel and everything needed to rebuild what Britain and we bombed in Germany, and what Germany destroyed in Britain and France. Unlimited demand – kept the economy going. Did we get paid back? Not directly – the rationale was to keep these countries out from under the Soviet sphere, so it was the kickoff to the cold war. But rebuilt Britain, France and Germany did actively trade with the US after rebuilding, so it was an excellent investment. Xi is investing in Iran, the horn of Africa and Venezuela. He’s building ports in all those countries. Why would Xi want ports in the middle east and western hemisphere? No doubt to bolster trade, right? Hmm..hawks would tend to disagree. I think he’s preparing for whatever comes his way.

But just remember: 450 more days ’til bliss or blister.