Let’s talk about the current state of the Republican ‘establishment’. I think the picture to the left says it all. Why do I label them as lemmings? Because they are acting like those little critters. Let me ‘splain.

Here’s the scoop from Wikipedia.

A lemming is a small rodent, usually found in or near the Arctic, in tundra biomes. Lemmings are subniveal animals, and together with voles and muskrats, they make up the subfamily Arvicolinae (also known as Microtinae), which forms part of the largest mammal radiation by far, the superfamily Muroidea, which also includes rats, mice, hamsters, and gerbils.

Wikipedia goes on to say their breeding habits are somewhat chaotic, resulting in either an overabundance that stresses the habitat, or near extinction. So let’s talk about what happens when the habitat gets stressed.

Lemmings have become the subject of a widely popular misconception that they commit mass suicide when they migrate, by jumping off cliffs. It is in fact not a mass suicide but the result of their migratory behavior. Driven by strong biological urges, some species of lemmings may migrate in large groups when population density becomes too great. Lemmings can swim and may choose to cross a body of water in search of a new habitat. In such cases, many may drown if the body of water is so wide as to stretch their physical capability to the limit. This fact, combined with the unexplained fluctuations in the population of Norwegian lemmings, gave rise to the misconception.[6]

Which brings us back to Republicans. Apparently their breeding has exceeded their habitat, so they are figuratively jumping off cliffs into fjords or some other cold body of water. Why do I say that?

1) Donald Trump;
2) The Senate refusing to confirm Merrick Garland as the next Supreme Court justice;
3) The North Carolina bathroom caper
4) The eternal, perpetual do-nothing Congress.

Only a weakened party would have a candidate like Trump rise to the fore; only a suicidal party would allow him to actually get the nomination, without so much as a whine or a whimper. With Trump as the Republican nominee, any 5 year old could tell that Hillary Clinton will win the election, with a majority of electoral votes from winning the usual blue states, along with Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia and maybe even Nevada. When she wins, there will likely be a tie in the Senate when you include the Democratic Vice President. With that on the horizon, the lemmings, er Republican lame duck Congress will try to quickly get Judge Garland confirmed as the replacement for Scalia. Then the Democrats will say, “Wait until after the inauguration and let the ‘people’ have their say.” Funny and ironic? Not really.

And then there’s the Republican hijinks in North Carolina that may very well defeat the sitting Republican governor, who ran on a platform of moderation. If this is moderation, holy moley! I think the cartoon says it all. But does the governor change his position? Nope. He’s taken his place in the Muroidea line and is well on his way to the big jumping off place into oblivion.

But what do all these Republicans have in common? The first two cartoons say it all: resolute and decisive leadership. Get in line and follow..all the way to the precipice. See ya!

And what will be the reaction after all these predictions come to be? “We weren’t sufficiently resolute and decisive. We need to be even more conservative. We must alienate even more people of color and gender.” Yeah…that’ll work. One of these days y’all will get around to realizing things have changed and you’ve become obsolete. Or, to quote that great line from A Knight’s Tale

Wat: You have been weighed.
Roland: You have been measured.
Kate: And you absolutely…
Chaucer: Have been found wanting.
William: Welcome to the New World. God save you, if it is right that he should do so.

I think God might take a pass this time. Too much using his name in vain for evil purposes. Oh whale…who nose?

6 inches

I saw this piece from Walt Hickey, who puts together Significant Digits for the Fivethirtyeight website. I laughed out loud, and had to read it to Erik, it was so clever. Here goes.

“Three months ago, Inky, an octopus being detained at a holding facility in New Zealand calling itself the National Aquarium, mounted a daring escape to freedom that involved breaking free of his enclosure, dragging his body along the floor, and exiting to the ocean through a six-inch drain. The details of how the prisoner of conscience — who was held without trial for two years on evidence of his affiliation with the cephalopod sect of the Mollusca phylum — escaped are only now coming to light. Worth noting is that octopi are vastly intelligent and capable of memory, and I can only assume that Inky is radicalizing his brothers-in-multiple-arms for the coming war.” [The Washington Post]

Don’t you just love it? A nod to Walt Hickey of Fivethirtyeight.com for his clever take on an otherwise pedestrian piece.

Yesterday, Paul Ryan said count him out as the Republican presidential nominee. I believe he will stick to his guns. Apparently bettors do as well, since his name has left the Predictwise building. So if not Paul, then who? And why won’t he take the mantle upon himself? Got some ideas.

First question: if not Paul, then who would be the nominee? I don’t think anybody knows that at the moment, as the final tally of delegates hasn’t appeared. But if all the indicators are correct, the two key states with a bunch of delegates are California (172) and Pennsylvania (71). California awards the bulk of its delegate by congressional district results; Pennsylvania keeps 80% of its delegates uncommitted. So DtheT has to take virtually every congressional district in New York to have a shot at amassing the 1237 he needs for a first ballot win. He’d have to get the bulk of California districts as well, and allegedly his organization is in disarray and unprepared to mount the disciplined campaign needed to take California. Or does it require discipline? I’d argue California Republicans would prefer Trump over Cruz, and Kasich might as well stay home. There you have it – Trump will get close enough to 1237 to go into the convention with a strong case for the nomination, if not the full 1237. Ryan saying, “Don’t count on me” nearly guarantees that outcome.

But the bigger issue is this: how come Paul Ryan won’t come to the rescue of the party? After all, the next generation of Supreme Court decisions needs for the Republicans to win. Is he being parochial – looking out for his own political interests? If he were, he’d not have taken the Speaker’s chair. No – I think he realizes they’re going to lose, and is trying to preserve the Republican majority in the House in case the Senate goes down with the higher ticket. That is a much higher likelihood than first seemed to be the case. It only takes 4 Senate seats to flip if Hillary wins. And Ryan is betting that Hillary wins and the Republicans lose the Senate. He’s the little

Dutch boy with his finger in the dike. Yoiks!

So which states are the 4 most likely to flip?

Wisconsin
Ohio
Florida
?

Wisconsin. Watch for Russ Feingold to come back. Ohio – Rob Portman is behind in the polls and the Democrat Ted Strickland was narrowly defeated in the 2010 gubernatorial race by John Kasich. Florida will see a very popular young Democrat, Patrick Murphy, against a more liberal Democrat accused of ethics violations, Alan Grayson.

The fourth one to flip is anybody’s guess, and there are actually a couple of vulnerable Democrats: Harry Reid of Nevada (who is retiring) and Michael Bennet from Colorado. But with the Republicans in disarray, I’d argue those seats will remain Democrat.

So bottom line: Senate will likely – once again – be evenly divided, when you include a Democratic VP. Sigh. Another 4 years of gridlock.

Oh – one last thing – remember that group called the Supreme Court? When Hillary wins, the lame duck Congress will try to get Merrick Garland approved beween November and January. If you were a Democrat in the Senate, would you go along with that? I think not. Sorry…no I’m not. The Republicans have been hoisted on their own petard, and as I’ve said before: there isn’t a more deserving group to suffer.

Well, 60 Minutes is clearly desperate for material, so they’ve again dredged up this story about the 28 page document initially suppressed by the Bush Administration. Inertia has set in, and the Obama Admins have no desire to open that proverbial can of worms. And frankly, at this point, why bother? Between the two retired pols that talked with Steve on the program, all’s been revealed anyway. Some lower level Saudi government officials helped the 9/11 hijackers get along in California until they were ready to fly on planes and blow up the buildings. Okay? That’s it. Big whoop.

But that got me to thinking and wondering: what would have prompted the Saudi government to support this plot in the first place? And after thinking a bunch of deep thoughts, I’ve come to three conclusions:

1) The lower-level Saudis helped the plotters because it’s what they’ve always done to keep the radicals happy and away from plotting against the Royal family;

2) They felt a certain allegiance to the group because they were followers of Osama Bin Laden; the Bin Laden family has close ties to the Royal family; and

3) Most important of all: the Saudi Royal family=Saudi Arabian government never thought they’d pull it off, and it would be safe to humor them and buy peace.

In other words, the foolish Saudis thought we Americans were smarter than we were. They certainly dropped enough hints to the Bush Administration – the intel community knew something was coming, and they failed to stop it because they didn’t think the group could pull it off either. After all, lots of plots had come and gone, and none had succeeded before, eh? So what we have here is the proverbial black swan. Who knew?

I’m not cynical enough to believe that the Bush Administration knew it was going to happen and let it for political reasons – only the Russians pull stunts like that, and only to cover up major corruption left over from the Yeltsin era. Nah – bureaucratic bungling is only part of the issue – the rest was a misguided belief in our security systems. That’s certainly changed, eh? But has it really?

We have spent more than half a trillion dollars on security since 9/11. And how many genuine plots have been uncovered? Obviously that’s hard to say because an uncovered plot generally doesn’t make the news. But I’d argue that since the 9/11 attack was effectively a black swan event, we have spent huge sums in pursuit of the unattainable – a 100% secure country. How much has France spent on homeland security since 9/11? Between 29 and 36 billion Euros a year. And has that kept them safe? Ask the staff at Charlie Hebdo; the Jewish deli; the concert hall. It has not kept France safe.

Okay, so nobody can buy safety. So what do we do?

1) Understand the roots of the problem and be candid about them;
2) Once the roots are understood, find ways to address the problems, recognizing that for some it’s too late and a certain level of violence can be expected.
3) Use statistical analysis to figure out how to best address existing violence. Trying to find everybody means we likely find nobody and plots will continue to be hatched and succeed.
4) After a generation or so, it’s likely the problem will go away on its own.

Wow – all that is heresy in this post-9/11, “let’s kill them all” world. But you can’t kill them all: killing the ones there breeds more terror and more terror breeds killing more and … you get the idea. So let’s find a new way to go about it and try telling the truth instead of covering up, making up and turning a blind eye to root causes. What is there to lose? Current strategy not working. Try new strategy.

So simple…hah!

Got to thinkin’ yesterday about Trump’s real role in this Republican presidential drama. Maybe he’s the teaser stallion here. Others have suggested such in posts, but for the wrong candidate – usually Hillary Clinton. Chuckle. Let me ‘splain.

On horse breeding farms, there are usually two or more very unlucky males who serve as ‘teaser stallions’. They are adept at sorting out which mares are in heat, and ready to mate. But the poor things never get to mate, because other stallions are better breeding prospects because of their background and genetics. So what does that have to do with this Presidential Primary season?

I now begin to see Trump as the teaser stallion, whipping the mares (the gullible schlemiels in the Republican electorate) into a frenzy, along with the not-so-gullible cynics in the media. His job is to be as outrageous and offensive as possible so the media will pay attention and so the schlemiels will think the Republican party is on their side, with every possible ism known to humanity. But just like with the teaser stallions, it’s his job to get close but not clinch the deal – i.e. not ‘mate’ by having more than 1,237 delegates committed to him.

Then, when the convention comes, because he is so outrageous, he will be bought off and the ‘real stud’ – Paul Ryan – who, by the way, is the Chairman of the Convention, can step in and be the putative nominee. I see it now for what it is – very slick. The question is: was this planned, or will it just work out this way? Is Trump the orchestra leader or just the horn player?

It really doesn’t matter. He’ll play his part, because it’s worth it to him in the only currency he truly understands – wealth. He doesn’t want to be President – that’s the only indication of his sanity thus far demonstrated. There won’t be “riots in the streets” – in fact, there will be a collective sigh of relief from all corners. And the docile Democrats won’t know what hit them until they lose Florida and Ohio in the election and slowly begin to see what happened. But too late. They will protest with their own version of conspiracy theories, but who’ll listen? Please – that’s yesterday’s news cycle. Wow – aren’t we all a bunch of suckers?

Will Paul Ryan be a good president? Maybe. But I think he is a very ambitious guy who is the ‘new’ Jeb Bush. I had the right idea all along – just the wrong generational candidate. Sorry, Jeb – you can go back to practicing devil craft, and let the new generation of Beelzebubs take it from here. I’m sure Paul will be around for pointers on how to be a good warlock. Sigh.

Here’s a quick update on the numbers for the Republican nomination. So far, Trump has 680 delegates. Neither of the other two can do anything but slow him down, so who cares about their totals so far? Concentrate, people!

Trump has 680 so far. Working in conjunction with Nate Silver and his Five Thirty Eight blog, I calculate Trump is likely to get another 508 delegates. That will give him a total going into the July Republican convention of 1188, a full 49 delegates short of the outright nomination. That feels about right to me. Nate seems to think he’ll be only 29 short, but I like my number better. So it seems like standard wisdom now that there will be a brokered Republican convention in July in Cleveland. Gosh – I’m really shocked and surprised by that. No I’m not. You know I’m not since you know I predicted this outcome – how many months ago? Check previous posts – I was talking about this outcome in Pennsylvania at Christmas. Yes, I continue to be the Oracle – just ask me anything except the Power Ball numbers.

So what happens then? Will this be another Lincoln in 1860 or will the Republicans wimp out and jump like lemmings into the sea with their DtheT candidate? Okay, since I see myself as the Oracle, I’ll go ahead and predict the outcome.

There will be a billion eyes watching around the world as the first round of the delegate count begins in Cleveland. Everyone will be holding their breath as Trump falls short of the necessary 1237. There will be speeches, both for and against Cruz as the alternate candidate. There will be a second ballot, and the numbers will even out a bit – fewer for Trump, more for Cruz and less more for Kasich.

That’s when the real deals begin to be made. Will it be a third party? Will Trump do what he’s wanted to do all along – be bought off by the Republican establishment and take his marbles and go home? What happens to the millions of schlemiels that voted for him along the way? Here’s what happens.

There is a deal made in the back rooms of the convention hall. Trump says he’s rethought the situation and realizes he would be letting down the country by continuing when it’s obvious that there is a conspiracy on the part of the Democrats to steal the race. Details of the conspiracy will follow, based on information he gleaned from his ‘sources’, all of which he will have made up. As a consequence, he will give all his delegates to….drum roll, please! It surely won’t be Ted Cruz – everyone hates him. It won’t be John Kasich because he really is a loser. In fact, it won’t be any of the candidates that have pursued the nomination thus far. It won’t be Mitt Romney – another loser. Who will it be? Why, it’ll be little Paul Ryan, the current Speaker of the House. He will cast those big eyes down, and say he’s only doing this for the country and for the party. And he will get all Trumps and Kasich’s delegates and he will win the nomination. And he will win the presidency over Hillary. Funny how things turn out, huh? And after the smoke clears and Ryan nominates a right wing Supreme Court justice who will be swiftly approved by the Republican dominated Senate, Trump will tally up how much value his brand accrued with this exercise in American democracy. It’s in the billions – no, let’s let Trump be Trump. He will say publicly that it was worth a cool trillion dollars to the Trump name for him to have pursued this ersatz campaign. And those schlemiels? They’ll say they knew all the time he was just pretending. And as long as a Republican wins, who cares? After all, Republicans take care of us the best.

You heard it here first, folks. Sit back and watch it – and say, “I’ll be damned – she was right again. Scary.”

Indeed.

A Twilight Zone episode from 1961, entitled It’s a Good Life starred little 7 year old Billy Mumy playing a 6 year old named Anthony. Anthony had a very powerful mind, and could destroy anything he wanted to with that power. The family was a little intimidated by him as a result, as anyone that told him “No” got zapped and went away. Sound like anyone we know that runs an Asian country with North in its name? You betcha.

Kim Jong-un, or the “Young-un” as I call him, has gotten a little carried away, playing with his toys like missiles and nukes. As a consequence, the UN voted to place onerous sanctions on North Korea. China – North Korea’s last friend – joined in on the sanctions that allow any ship going to North Korea to be searched and seized if it’s shown to be North Korean. This happened in The Phillipines this week.

The question, of course, is how will the Young-Un react to this? And second, given enough time, will sanctions cause instability in the country, the fear of which has prevented China from being firm with its little brother since he took over in 2012. His older half-brother was supposed to take over, but got busted for trying to go to Disneyland in Tokyo. Funny, huh? Well, maybe not.

The Young-un got into a fight with his uncle about who controlled fisheries on the west coast of the country. As a result, uncle was purged and killed – along with his entire family. Allegedly, the Young-un had his cousin killed by being burnt alive with a flame thrower. Nice, huh? As you can see from his picture, The Young-Un has put on a few pounds, allegedly from gorging on swiss cheese since he ascended to the throne of leadership. He apparently has joint trouble, having disappeared from view in 2014 for about a month – allegedly having surgery on his ankles – ankles that have to support all that weight. He and his wife – a former Korean singer – have just one daughter. So succession within his immediate family won’t happen. That means if and when he’s gone, unless he has a son, leadership will go to the Disneyland boy or to the other son that follows Eric Clapton all over the place. It’s anybody’s guess how that’ll turn out. But the Young-un is still young – somewhere between 32 and 34, depending on who you ask. But in the ensuing years, he can still do a lot of damage – to his own country and the countries surrounding him. Is that likely to happen?

Those in the know believe the Young-un got very nervous as the US invaded Iraq and then bombed Libya. He fears a similar outcome for his regime. The boy king keeps the nukes handy to ward off any such intrusion. Recall there are nearly 29,000 American troops currently stationed in South Korea. Pyongyang is only 120 miles from Seoul, the capital of South Korea. The military strength of the two respective nations is about equal, but with the south’s population double that of the north, the south could immediately ramp up troop strength to double that of the north. A nuclear provocation against the south could make that happen. It’s also been suggested that the US is going to provide South Korea with the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system. It is thought that China’s buy-in to deploying such a system signals their concern about the Young-uns adventurism in nuclear deployment.

So what’s next for the world and North Korea? According to a piece I read over the weekend, Pachinko winnings in Japan help pay for North Korea’s nuclear adventurism. Some ex-pat North Koreans in Japan play pachinko – a wildly popular pinball game – and give the proceeds to North Korea to protect family members stuck in the North. Finding routes for these payments and stopping them is likely the only way to cut off this funding and put a crimp in the Young-Un’s follies. But the price to be paid by these families – and eventually the entire southern part of the Korean peninsula – is what’s at stake here. Just like with little Anthony in the Twilight Zone episode, it’s not a good idea to make him mad. If you do, he could turn you into a Jack in the Box.

Reviewing a bit of history, I was surprised to find that there were, in fact, three Democratic candidates that ran against Lincoln the Republican in 1860. There was Stephen Douglas, John Breckinridge and a guy named John Bell. I’d heard of John Bell Hood, the reckless Confederate general, but hadn’t heard about John Bell. But here’s my point: the Republican party in 2016 bears a striking resemblence to the Democratic party in 1860, without the issue of slavery. How so? Let me ‘splain.

John C. Breckinridge was the vice president under James Buchanan, a one-termer whose ambivalence toward slavery gave him a slot in the ‘worst presidents ever’ list. A splintered Democratic convention resulted in Breckinridge and Illinois Senator Stephen Douglas both being nominees for president. Breckinridge was called the ‘southern Democrat’ and Douglas just plain ‘Democrat’. While popular history has it that Douglas was Lincoln’s principal adversary in the election, the actual results don’t support that. I’ll get to that in a minute.

John Bell’s nomination was the result of former Whig’s getting together with a couple of other splinter groups to form the “Constitutional Union” party, which obviously advocated to oppose secession. The clear result? Three Democratic candidates split the popular and subsequent electoral vote, allowing the Republican Lincoln to win the national election with northern and western votes. Bell took Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee. Breckinridge swept the south, and Douglas only won Illinois. Something very similar to that will happen in the 2016 election.

Let’s look at the current factions in the Republican party. While the three candidates don’t necessarily compare directly with the three southern Democrats, the split in ideology is analogous. Essentially, we have a ‘moderate’ (Rubio), a radical conservative (Cruz) and DtheT, who can only be described as a canny marketer whose candidacy is the result of too many years of stringing poor whites along with promises not kept. Rubio is too light-weight to win, as DtheT – and Chris Christie showed us in the debates. Ted Cruz is gratingly pedantic, turning off the electorate as well as his peers with his alienating style and substance. And DtheT is – well, you know what he is – everybody knows what he is. His popularity is as much a product of the distaste for the rest of the field as it is wishful thinking on the part of the electorate that they really can put a thumb in the eye of their elected Washington cadre.

So if the analogy holds – and current ‘establishment’ Republican rhetoric continues in the current vein – you could see multiple Republican candidates in the form of DtheT and

‘third-party’ entities emerging from the Cleveland convention in June. That would be semi-analogous to the election I thought this one would resemble: Nixon versus Humphrey and Wallace in 1968. But instead of DtheT, I had Jeb Bush in the role of Nixon (typecasting if there ever was) and him clearly winning. But I hadn’t dug deep enough. It seems DtheT and Nixon actual had a tie in common – Roy Cohn. Ironic, ain’t it? Roy and Nixon helped Tail-gunner Joe McCarthy become an ‘ism’, and Roy was DtheT’s attack dog attorney in the ’90’s. Oh my. What can be said about that? Wow.

So I suppose you could call 2016 a mash-up of 1860 and 1968, but with the opposite result: Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States, with 322 votes in the electoral college to Trump’s 218 and the third party candidate put up by the Republicans likely not even making it to the finish. When that happens, on Wednesday, November 9th, a new Republican leader will emerge that will be analogous to Bill Clinton’s emergence after Michael Dukakis’ defeat by George H.W. Bush in 1988. And who will that leader be? I predict it will be Governor Brian Sandoval of Nevada, the guy Obama thought could be his ‘trump card’ in appointing a Republican to the Supreme Court. He’s governor until 2019 when he’s term-limited out. Watch him rise as the next leader of the Republican party, and watch the ‘new’ party take over from a disappointing Clinton Presidency in 2020. And why will Hillary’s presidency be disappointing? Because anybody in that seat for the next four years is doomed to failure. Too many challenging issues; no unity in D.C. So there it is – watch it unfold and learn, grasshoppers.

Yes, the soliloquy from Hamlet as he contemplates suicide and its alternatives. That is the situation the “establishment” Republicans find confronting them. But which form of suicide? Death by Trump or death by opposing him and ending their Trump troubles? They were all asleep nine months ago when they could have rallied around Jeb! and smothered Trump’s candidacy in its infancy. But I think they liked the free media exposure his campaign afforded; they figuried he would fall on his sword at some point with his outrageous statements. But no. Now they’re stuck with him. In their dreams they can stop the Trump juggernaut. Couldn’t happen to more deserving folk.

But what about the denouement? Who will be there to say, “Goodnight, sweet prince?” I think that’s the most interesting part of this evolutionary saga. Even though Trump will not win the Presidency, his legacy will live on. The ‘new’ Republican base will look very different. Much less concerned about Planned Parenthood and Obamacare, and much more interested in radical leadership, and the potential for repressive governance. The GOP in DC is going to have to morph into a very new bird if they want to stay in power. Can they do it? Doubt it. “There’s more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” I think we are seeing the beginning of a major shift in the American ethos. But where it ends up is tough to predict. But what the hell – let’s give it a shot!

Angry. Undereducated. Meme-susceptible. Overweight. Joe the Plumber. Loves Palin and Limbaugh, but hates Coulter and Beck. Favors country music and shotguns. Thinks minorities are getting ahead at their expense. Not financially prepared to retire, but getting too unhealthy to work. These are demographic realities, not just images from my imagination. This group is fast going down the tubes, they know it, and they don’t like it. So what will be their likely recourse? They’ll rally around the next demagogue. But this one won’t be just a performance artist like DtheT. He’ll be a meaner version of David Duke. They’ll all be primed to advocate violent overthrow of the government. They’ll be big on symbols, so expect to see new flag designs with intertwined snakes and maybe a dagger or two. Sound like Berlin, 1932? You betcha. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark? Nope – in des United States. Watch it unfold…as I predicted in my play, Fear of the Sixth Extinction. Check it out.

The results are in from the South Carolina primary. After weeks of debate, polling, talking heads’ opining and everyone holding their breath, now the GOP vector is fairly well set. How so? Let us begin to analyze these outcomes.

Trump won every Congressional District in South Carolina and Jeb Bush finally quit. Whew. But there’s more data out there, and we’ll talk about that in a minute. But here’s the upshot: the only chance the GOP had of winning the presidency in November just quit. Goodbye, Satan. The GOP will miss you.

I kind of know how Patty Hearst must have felt when the cops killed the Symbionese Liberation Army (look that one up, you young’uns). It’s a shock to realize after 22 years of waiting – yes, 22 years since the Newt Gingrich-led conservative Republican takeover of the government – that it’s finally over. And it appears that the entire GOP electorate has revolted against their revolting masters. They are ostensibly supporting the man who is the furthest thing from a dream candidate for the GOP establishment that could be found. Ain’t it great? Yeah, but no. Let’s think on.

What will emerge now is a pitched battle between DtheT and Little Marco Big Heels Rubio (Lil’ M for short). The betting site PredictWise has it a 50/46% split between the two. Jeb dropping out pushed Lil’ M up 7%, as he’s now the anointed allegedly moderate candidate. Sir Ted the Dour is at 2% and might not be long for the race. So that means the GOP establishment is having to pin all its hopes on a neophyte, pretty boy who can’t stand the heat in a not-very-tough debate format, a Senator they loathe, or John Kasich? Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

PredictWise also has the outcome at a consistent 61/39% breakdown for the Democrat over the Republican in November. And that Democrat ain’t The Bern. So, gentle readers, the best – and likely only – chance the GOP had to retake the White House in the fall just left the building, and – more importantly – I’m confident the party elders know it. I’d love to be a fly on the wall at their breakfast gathering this morning.

In order for DtheT not to get enough delegates to win, this will have to be a three or four man race. That means Ted and/or Kasich will have to stay in the race for the long haul. Watch big money come pouring into Kasich’s campaign. The only hope now is for it to be a brokered election to stop DtheT. That which they wanted to avoid has now become a necessity. But in the process of stopping him, they will likely put the final nail in the coffin of the GOP. The party is now is like a patient with pancreatic cancer and Donald Trump is radiation and chemo all rolled into one. DtheT: the destroyer of cells and organs and everything else in this aging and frail body.

But the real irony – and one that eventually Op-Ed writers will stumble upon – is that DtheT is the ultimate product of all these years of ‘making shit up’ perpetrated by the party and its surrogates: The Weekly Standard, the NRA, the Dick Cheney and Fox News. The empire is crumbling because it finally produced Caligula. And the net result of all this? After Hillary wins, she will nominate someone to the Supreme Court that is left with a capital L. The dark side of the force is destroyed. Welcome back to the country of progress. I guess I won’t have to move to Norway after all. No wardrobe changes needed. Whew!