“A focused mind is one of the most powerful forces in the universe.”

“Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things unseen.”

Two messages from today’s Fortune Cookies after lunch at the Chinese buffet.

The stalemate is over and gumment workers are back at it. At least for the time being.

Good news: when we go to D.C. on Saturday the Smithsonian will be open and Em can look at dinosaur bones.

The bad news: the unchastened fringe will be back at it, first in December with the budget and then on January 15th with the debt ceiling. January 15th is my birthday. Maybe my present will be a long term plan that includes cooperation and putting the good of the country first. About as likely as my getting a miracle.

“It is the mark of the mind untrained to take its own processes as valid for all men, and its own judgments for absolute truth.”
― Aleister Crowley, Magical and Philosophical Commentaries on The Book of the Law

In times like these men should utter nothing for which they would not be willingly responsible through time and in eternity.
Abraham Lincoln

“There is only the trying. The rest is not our business.”

T.S. Eliot

In the spirit of “if you can’t beat ’em, emulate ’em”, I am going to shut down Planet Susan. There will be no more pithy posts until the United States government is reopened and the debt ceiling is raised. Planet Susan is a wonderful place, with happiness and thoughtful discourse. I don’t want it polluted with the ugliness and misery here on Planet Earth. So as of this moment, it is shut down. Shuttered. No longer functioning. Kaput. Fini…

You’ll get nothing more from me until it’s done.

So there …{insert Bronx cheer here…}

Don’t Shut It Off

Remember this great scene from Ghostbusters? The ‘man from the EPA’ insists that the spectre-capture team is in violation of some standard or another, and insists the vat of spooks must be shut down. We all know what’s coming, we anticipate it – dread it? – and then it happens.

Well, gentle readers, your esteemed Congressmen and two crazy women of the Tealiban are about to do the same thing by pushing the country over the abyss into default. The horse doc from G’ville who goes by the name of Yoho (ho and a bottle of rum…sorry, couldn’t resist) insists it wouldn’t have any impact. Maybe he’s been injecting himself with those horse tranqs, or has traded in his vet shingle for a degree in global economics from the University of Incredibly Irresponsible. Nevertheless, unless something changes, or someone (Barry O) develops some ‘nads, this will be a shock felt ’round the world, in about the same amount of time it took for the G’buster’s containment vessel to blow through the roof. In fact, unless something major is decided this weekend, I predict you’ll start to see impacts to the market early next week.

Will that be enough to change their positions? Nope. As Marlin Stutzman said, they gotta get something out of all this. That something will be a global financial meltdown. And when it happens? Like the man from the EPA, they will take no responsibility for their actions, and will blame the Dems for the disaster. And their cousin-wedding contingent in those red states will continue to swallow their hypocritical dogma, frankly because they don’t know any better. I sound elitest, you say? Hey, buddy, I got mine. I’m at the age where I won’t feel the pain right away. I’m not looking to buy a house or a car, not dependent on an export business, or even worried particularly about the stock market. In fact, after the meltdown will be a good time to buy stocks, because they will be quite inexpensive.

So after the fall, what will world leaders do? Declare war on us? Invade some third world country to rob them of their resources in an attempt to survive? Interesting notion, but likely no. World leaders will blame us, band together against us and declare economic war. But I predict it won’t come to that. Those folks (Koch Bros) who are funding this clown posse will phone them and say, rather succinctly, “Fix it”. But you can’t put those poltergeists back into the attic, my darlings. Damage done, credibility lost, another major step to self destruction. Well, we lasted 237 years…that’s pretty good, isn’t it?

P.S. The legend under the Koch boys’ picture is “America: meet your new owners”.

Bibi’s Tired Iranian Lines

Here was my response to Roger Cohen’s column in this morning’s New York Times:

Rouhani came to New York to address the UN but really to send a limited signal to the US that the sanctions have worked and Iran is suffering. It’s a limited signal because the hard liners are willing to be Slim Pickens and ride the economic bomb all the way down. Bibi is speaking directly to Barack Obama. Bibi wants to help the Tehran hard liners, knowing that Iran will implode. He wants Obama to delay any substantive discussion about lifting sanctions to ensure that Iran implodes. If Iran implodes, ironically, it opens the way for three possible outcomes: a desperate Iran buying a bomb from North Korea, internal revolution and then external attack from Al Qaeda. Iran is the last bastion of Shiadom that the Sunnis would like to take over to build the putative new Caliphate. Syria is the template for this approach. The challenge for Al Qaeda would be to find enough fighters to carry it off. That’s where Saudi Arabia comes into the equation. That’s the game that’s afoot here. Journalists like Dexter Filkins and Charlie Rose are being used by all sides to bolster their position. I predict the US will drag its feet, and the hard liners will have their way with potentially significant consequences for everyone, but in particular for Israel. Whether Iran gets a bomb or is taken over by Al Qaeda, it still leaves Israel as the last remaining real ‘infidel’ in the Middle East. Bibi, be careful what you ask for: you just might get it.

I know this is fundamentally a rehash of my previous post about Iran, but Roger’s superficial take on the situation was annoying. He should dig deeper and think more broadly.

Now let’s talk a bit more about the shutdown. Representative Marlin Stutzman truly expressed the situation. Here it is:

We’re not going to be disrespected,” Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told The Washington Examiner. “We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is.”

“We’re not going to be disrespected.” By whom? For what? “We have to get something out of this.” To save face? And finally, “And I don’t know what that even is”. We started this revolution, knowing in our hearts that we were right and the American people were on our side, but now it turns out it’s all gone bad, everybody’s mad and we’re stuck, not sure whether to blast our way out or give up. Sounds like a hostage situation to me. Remember this one? Similar situation.

Finally, baseball: and what happened yesterday afternoon and early evening to the Pittsburgh Pirates playing the St. Louis Cardinals?

Here’s the headline:

Wainwright, Cards blank Pirates, take over first place

Brains over brawn, just like I said…

Two wild card games down. Tampa Bay Rays handily beat the Texas Rangers (good thing) and Pittsburgh Pirates body slammed the Cincinnati Reds. Other words come to mind to describe that game, with reference to the Pirates’ fans: boorish, neanderthals, rude, crude and obnoxious…you get the idea.

Johnny Cueto, the Reds pitcher, was harassed beyond the point of any definition of crowd enthusiasm. While Michael and I agreed that Pittsburgh was likely to take the game, I did not anticipate the rabidity of the onlookers. Reminded one of the old days in the Roman Colosseum with the gladiators. Johnny’s lucky to still have his head. There was no excuse for their behavior.

Having said that, what are the Pirate team’s odds of moving ahead? I say poor. Why? Listen, gentle readers, to Grandma Susan explain the finer points of baseball, based on having watched at least 100 games this season…wow…that’s at least 250 hours spent watching …Michael, take exception to my musings if you will, but this is what I believe to be so.

Baseball is both a physical as well as a cerebral sport. Yes, it requires those gentlemen to utilize their brains as well as their muscles. And based on what I saw from Pittsburgh last night, they have the muscle, but do they have the brains? I say Nay.

The stats show that Pittsburgh hasn’t successfully gotten this far in 21 years. I can see why. It is likely this team plays as did the last one that succeeded 21 years ago. In other words, they have not evolved as other teams have (e.g. Oakland, Boston, Tampa Bay) using sabermetric concepts. They just bludgen the ball. A team that does that cannot succeed.

Watching “sabermetric” teams is like solving a really complex math problem, or a clever crossword puzzle with an embedded metapuzzle. You can observe strategy at work in a physical manifestation.

For example: the A’s know that a particular pitcher has a problem fielding bunts. So what do they do? First batter, first pitch: they bunt. The pitcher messed it up (as they knew he would) and the guy was done for that game. He left within 3 innings. Now that’s strategy, not sabermetrics, per se. But teams whose front office adopted sabermetric methods tend to play with a more cerebral approach to the game. They analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the other team, and take advantage of the weaknesses while trying to avoid the strengths. That’s what it takes to win ball games nowadays. And that clearly isn’t what Pittsburgh has demonstrated. A pox on their house, I say. There you have it, folks.

It’s a long way to the World Series, but I’ll make this prediction here and now: the team that wins will be one that combines brains, athleticism and heart to succeed. We’ll see who that ends up being. The field includes the following teams:

Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
Atlanta Braves
Tampa Bay Rays or Cleveland Indians, depending on who wins tonight
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Dodgers

Boston and Atlanta have played the best for the longest. Detroit is in the American League Central, which is kinda not so challenging. Los Angeles battled their way up from lots of troubles to take the NL West. So who will emerge victorious? Michael is coming down to visit tomorrow, and we’re going to run the stats and place some fictitious bets. We’ll see. Obviously my favorite is Oakland, but my head says probably not. So if it can’t be Oakland, maybe it can be Atlanta. Or Tampa…Anybody but Pittsburgh!

Iran Staggers as Sanctions Hit Economy

Y’all thought I was going to write about the government shutdown today, right? Nope. Waste of time, as nothing will change until someone at Treasury cuts off House of Representative members paychecks. Then we’ll see how pure their dogma remains!

Back to the point of this post: Iran. On October 5th, 2012, i.e. nearly one year ago, I wrote a blog post that I titled “Contrasts”. You can go to Site Admin and look for it. The contrasts I referred to were the difference between Europe and Japan’s efforts to avoid deflationary spirals with Iran’s inflationary problems due to the government’s move to exchange rials for hard currency for “essential items”. It was intended to stimulate Iran’s private sector to increase the flow of goods like meat and other items that were experiencing shortages. But the actual effect was a wholesale flight from the rial to other hard currencies, which pushed the value of the rial from the posted 12,800 to the dollar to about 38,000 to the dollar. The ‘new’ official listed exchange rate is 24,816 to the dollar, but good luck finding those terms if you’re a Tehran housewife trying to buy dinner. There was a slight improvement in the rate after Rouhani won the presidency, but – as the article above indicates – Iran is still in deep trouble. Which explains why Rouhani was in New York last week and talking on the phone to Obama. The writer, Rick Gladstone, uses a bus manufacturer as an example of the problems brought about when the monetary exchange called Swift was barred from doing business with anyone in Iran. The net result for this bus manufacturer was having to make cash transactions with help from relatives in Dubai to buy parts in China. Sometimes the money got there; sometimes it didn’t. If the parts were defective, he had no recourse to send them back in exchange for good parts. In other words, this previously successful businessman has burned through all his savings, and is now on the verge of bankruptcy. As is the country of Iran.

Ahmadinejad was never candid about the problems that existed in the country. He pointed out the high level of cash reserves the government possessed. But what he failed to mention was the inability of the government to access about 75% of those reserves, since they were frozen in bank accounts in the U.S. And they were barred from spending the other 25% anywhere other than the countries to which Iran sells oil, primarily China. This has effectively ruined the country’s economy, which some predict can only last a few more months. By the way, the caption in French above Mahmoud’s head is roughly translated to Iran has no reason to worry…

So Rouhani has no choice but to try to negotiate for an end to sanctions. He wasn’t shy about that when he came calling last week. But his time line and the rest of the civilized world’s time line may not be on par. But one has to wonder: if things get that bad in Iran, what could happen? Maybe three possible outcomes: revolt of the masses sick and tired of being sick and tired; capitulation on the part of the Iranian government on its nuclear program, and the lifting of the sanctions; or an invasion of a weakened Iran by Al Qaeda, with the express goal of transforming Iran from the primary, remaining Shia stronghold to another element of the purported Sunni caliphate. Wouldn’t that be a surprise, and a big ole’ kick in the head for the boys and girls at Foggy Bottom?

One last note – couldn’t resist this. Ryan Lizza’s piece about the events leading to the shutdown was entitled “Where the GOP’s Suicide Caucus Lives”. Another writer came up with a similar label about them: they’re “lemmings with suicide vests”…funny…hey, gotta see the humor in all this right?