Day 433 and I suppose it’s time to talk about the weather. Thanks to the El Nino fading, our hurricane protection has now gone away. Crank up the generators, and kiss Puerto Rico goodbye – again.

You’d think by now we’d be used to hurricanes hitting us in September and October – gotten to be a habit with the weather gods. Michael, Iris, Matthew – all occurring in this time frame. We missed a direct hit with Matthew and never lost power. Iris was worse; no power for 4 days and the house got to 89° F before we bailed and went into town for a fine meal at very-much powered up McCarthy’s pub. Best meal ever! Michael went to Tallahassee and played havoc with our home and child there. So this time, we have a storm named Dorian, who was supposed to come in as a tropical storm and is now aiming at Melbourne as a Category 3. They can get the track right; never the intensity.

But geez – how many storms do we have to experience before we see the pattern? The intensification generally occurs as it gets closer to land and then may back off a bit in shallower waters. But ask the people about that at Mexico Beach that Michael wiped out last year.

I doubt they’ve made much progress in rebuilding. But they won’t get the brunt of Dorian; Daytona will. Watch out, sister in Deland! You’re a bit inland, but do you have a generator? If not, might be wise to grab one before they’re all gone – all those trees around y’all’s property may have an impact. I’ll call her and talk about it. Later, hurricane haters!

If there ever was a time to be concerned about global politics and economics, that time is now – likely more than at any time since 1939. But back then, we had Winston Churchill, FDR and yes, Joseph Stalin who made sure his troops knew that anyone retreating would be shot. That is a genuine incentive to push forward. But leaders they were – contrary to what we have today.

I’ve been reading Zinky Boys by Svetlana Alexeivich about Russia’s adventures in Afghanistan that preceded ours by a decade. Often referred to as Russia’s VietNam, I’d call that incorrect. When America left ‘Nam, a few years later we impeached a president and started to watch Saturday Night Live. When Russia left Afghanistan and experienced the explosion at Chernobyl, the empire melted down, just like the reactor. The wall between East and West Berlin came down, and shortly thereafter, the emboldened countries in eastern Europe declared their independence. Russia was too broke to send troops to fend off these moves to democracy.

Soldiers returning home in zinc coffins was the origin of the term Zinky Boys. Svetlana captured commentary from soldiers, nurses, mothers, officers and enlisted men to describe the experience of fighting an unseen enemy who was determined to oust Russian soldiers from its country. Of course, we’re still there after 18 years, but in small numbers with very limited casualties. But here’s what I’ve gleaned from reading this book, as well as her Voices From Chernobyl, from which Craig Mazzin wrote the screenplay for the HBO series. After these two major shocks to the Russian system, it showed ordinary people that the state – contrary to what they’d been told – was not infallible and – more importantly – was unable to care for them, individually or collectively. The curtain was pulled back and the guy pulling the levers was revealed to be a fraud. Only in this case, it was the system that was the fraud. Broke is broke, and we see that today in countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

What’s that got to do with my first paragraph? The paucity of leadership has created a world today running on fear, anger and hatred – very much like Germany, Italy and Japan in 1939. We are on the cusp of something ugly, generated by this craven and spineless set of politicians currently running things. There doesn’t appear to be anything better anywhere on the horizon. So be prepared to experience a conflagration on a much bigger scale than the war in Afghanistan or a nuclear meltdown. The only interesting question now is what will be the spark that sets off whatever is coming. But if history is any guide, I see militarization in all our futures.

Four hundred thirty five more days ’til the election and the world is no longer safe for democracy, It appears that many of what I’d call thought leaders are now afraid that income inequality will lead to chaos on a national – or even global – scale. They want to protect what is theirs, and are looking to history as a warning to act before it’s too late. You know all the historic examples – the fall of Greece, Rome, Bourbon France, Tsarist Russia, Soviet Russia, Libya, Syria. These falls were all caused by income inequality to greater or lesser degrees. A hungry mob is a dangerous mob.

Opiates deadened the pain of unemployment and poverty for a while. Drug companies used databases to locate parts of the country where there were the greatest number of prescriptions being written, and flooded those areas with more opiates. Brings to mind soma from Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World – deadens the body and the mind. Hard to join the revolution when you can’t tear yourself away from the couch and the video game (notice the treadmill behind him..)

The DEA was aware of all this, keeping a database themselves that detailed the drug companies’ actions. It took multiple FOIA requests and lawsuit threats to get them to turn over the data, and it contained some fascinating information – a clear example of Pareto’s law (20% of pharmacies responsible for 80% of opiates prescribed). The hypocrisy and corruption of state and federal government officials, both appointed and elected, is rampant. All this is just another brick in the wall toward – wait for it – dissolution of the various parts of this country, when enough people finally get fed up with a central government that no longer cares for its citizens.

I have no confidence that there’s a path to turn away from this inexorable slide into a breakup, any more than Franklin Pierce could have done anything to stop the civil war. It took Abraham Lincoln being elected president to set the spark that led to secession. But as I pointed out in a previous post, the south effectively brought dissolution to a reality by having three different candidates for president, since none of the three could defeat Lincoln, either in the popular vote or the Electoral College.

But there was an interesting court case reported last week. An elector voted contrary to the rest of the slate from Colorado, where he was supposed to vote for Hillary Clinton. Instead, he voted for John Kasich, and the Secretry of State nullified his vote. A federal appeal’s court said the Secretary couldn’t do that, that voters are actually voting for electors, who are not bound to follow their wishes. Confusing, ain’t it? I expect this’ll go to the Supremes, but in time for the 2020 election? Surely..if not, OMG!

But now that all this is coming out, will anything change? Not until we hit bottom and a critical mass of angry and disgusted citizenry effect change. But who will emerge – Madame Lafarge with her knitting? Or Boris Yeltsin standing on the tank, supported by the Afghantsi (the returned Russian soldiers from Afghanistan that kept the KGB from successfully ousting Gorbachev and then Yeltsin). The odds of a smart group like our founding fathers emerging from the chaos are slim..we’re so past that point of innocence.

Last week was a tough one for just about everyone – except DtheT/crazy. It seems clear being president has, in fact, driven him to the brink of madness , as I predicted. It just took longer than I expected.

He’s telling American CEOs now to abandon their efforts with China – either trading with them or working in country. He’s saying he has the power to compel this directive, using legislation passed by Congress in 1977, which was intended to curb the power of the president. Worked real well, didn’t it?

Most folk think it’s just one of his typical negotiating ploys, and that he won’t carry through with the threat. I’d say there’s a 50/50 chance that he will try, but the logistics of carrying it out are nearly impossible – not to mention the cost associated with that dissolution. I’ve used that word before – just a few posts ago. It would appear we are working toward that goal, with my prediction being it will occur some time around 2025 or 2026. And yes, Virginia, I mean a dissolution of the U S of A…no more United States, but the countries I showed in that illustration. That will be DTT/crazy’s legacy to the good voters of this country – look how powerful I am! I can destroy a country.

What to do? Don’t vote for him in 2020 – change the inexorable direction of the country. See – wasn’t that simple? But we seem to be in a situation similar to the one Winston found himself in on May 10, 1940. He said he’d hoped it wasn’t too late to change the reality that Nazi Germany was going to take over the world. I expect our allies with whom DtheT/crazy is meeting today at the G7 are hoping the same thing. So, take him on? They won’t; too many problems at home for each of them, because of the rise of nationalism everywhere. We’ve a long way to go before this is over; hang on to your hats; it’s gonna be a bumpy ride (Margo Channing; All About Eve).

I just updated Word Press, so now I have to get used to a new format. I’ll survive – I’m confident.

Today is day 439 prior to the election. Biden is still ahead by double digits, even though it doesn’t appear he’s doing anything to promote his candidacy. I’d argue the best thing he can do for himself – and us – is to keep his yap shut. The less he talks, the more likely it will be that he will defeat the biggest mouth in the west. I believe we’re all tired of the ‘jaw-jacking’ as folk in southwest Georgia are wont to say.

So keep it up, Señor Biden…Mum’s the word; less said the better; shut it; no talking, por favor; silence is golden.

Was having a bad day yesterday; got up too early and then got interrupted every time I tried to lie down again..so didn’t try to write until evening…then found the site to be down..thank you, as always, dear brother John for fixing the server.

So what’s on tap for today? I guess I’m still thinking about the economy…a quick glance at Marketwatch and I find the Dow is down a trifle, on news about the bond market being inverted…yes, it is and it will likely stay that way for a while. It takes a fair length of time for the recession to show up after this indicator starts beeping.

Paul Krugman’s column is about Trump picking a fight with Europe over tariffs (dumb) and how wrong-headed the Germans have been about debt (they have some experience with too much of it) and how they need to spend on infrastructure – as do we. Geez…duh..duh..duh.

Why do we keep repeating these things over and over? Several reasons. Start with Japan. Instead of taking the pain of writing off zombie loans, they poured money into building what is now referred to as ‘bridges to nowhere’. Japan – the same country that brought you the Fukushima disaster – clearly has some institutional/cultural issues that keep getting in their way to righting their tilting ship – tilting for the past 20 years. They have demographic issues; gender issues (women no longer wanting to be stay at home moms – gee I wonder why? Another DUH!) and they have no immigration. But I digress…Japan is held up as the reason why countries like Germany avoid spending on needed infrastructure to try to stimulate a moribund economy. It was Larry Summers that proposed the idea of negative interest rates, which Europe adopted…helped a bit … but not really.

Then there’s nationalist politics. You can’t fight demographics unless you’re willing to embrace immigration, which Europe is now not willing to do. So everybody is doing exactly the wrong thing to fix their problems and political economists are cheering on the wrong headed ideas because of ideology, not pragmatism. It appears to be the story of the moment…everywhere. Where is another John Maynard Keynes when you need him – or her?

How will all this end? Wow – the shadow? Already showed him. War. That’s the next logical step..feels a bit overdue, you say? Be careful what you wish for.

I’m sorry this isn’t a better post – I need to get focused on book 3, and not get so distracted by current events. Try to do better tomorrow.

“For what shall it profit a man if he shall gain the whole world and lose his soul?” Matthew 8:36

Didn’t write yesterday ’cause the lovely Susan, Patricia Mary and I did our quarterly brunch..I tried to be a better listener yesterday instead of talking…it was nice.

Back to the title..did a lot of Bible quoting from mostly the OT in the first two books; now on to the NT for book 3. But this quote stuck in my mind as I was reading Neal Irwin, Ross Douthat and some other guy named Ruchir Sharma who works for Morgan Stanley and contributes pieces to the currently being scalded NYT. But you have to invert it for current reality. How about “For what shall it profit America and the planet if we shall regain our souls and lose the whole world?”

A recession be a comin’ people, is the consensus perspective. All the indicators are there when dem bones be thrown. It was Douthat who exclaimed that Trump would be blamed when the recession comes and it would be his undoing. Several of the commentators for Irwin’s piece decried the reality that Republicans always cause the recessions and the Democrats have to clean up the mess. Reminds me of the great quote from Mrs. Lintott (The History Boys), whom I have quoted before..

“History is a commentary on the various and continuing incapabilities of men. What is history? History is women following behind with the bucket.”

A slight variation required here: American history is a commentary on the various and continuing incapabilities of Republican men..history is Democrat women following behind with the bucket.”

What are the current demographics of the two parties in terms of gender? Hmm..let’s check.. why it’s 56% Democrat, 37% Republican and 7% Independent or whatever else (like Libertarian or Green or other small affiliations). So there are half again more women pursuing the Democratic path versus the Republican road at the moment, so I stand by phraseology; not Democrats and women but Democrat women. We will make all the difference?

But back to my point from the quote. Douthat I suppose wants Trump to be defeated; he and Bill Maher are pining for a recession that will pull the plug on the Trump dynasty of one term. But clearly this is a case of be careful what you wish for…if the equality divide is wide, a recession will make it decidedly wider. Can America – or the world – handle that? Nope. But alternatively, is there anything that can be done to stop the decline? Of course! In this order, we should 1) negotiate an end to the tariff wars; 2) have another referendum and stop the Brexit insanity; 3) summon another Bretton Woods to stabilize national currencies to facilitate global cooperation. What are the odds that these three things will happen, in or out of the requisite order? About 5.25%. Where’d I get that number? Out of my left ear. But wait and see what happens…only the shadow knows…

So 444 more days and all is decidedly not well. The rumbling on Wall Street after German numbers got put up indicates skittishness on the part of investors. We’re talking about the Fed taking back two interest rate increases so Mr. Powell can keep his job. What a bunch of complete cowards. We’ll pay for that down the road.

How does one play all this, if one is retired and has a semi-positive cash flow but is looking to the future? Ms. Orman would tell you to pay off all your debts and hunker down. I think that’s wrong. There was a time to buy stocks; it’s ended. There was a time to buy real estate – that’s big time over. So what to do now? Nothing. Don’t change anything. I intend to KBO, as the market softens and goes down to less than 20k by year’s end. I intend to keep working on the Tallahassee house, replacing the kitchen flooring (gotta call that flooring guy in Tally) and then working on the stairs – removing the carpet and staining the wood if it’s decent, or adding risers if not – likely with the help of that flooring guy. So yes, I will be spending money, but not on the Jupiter house. I think in the end I will end up with Kirsten in Tally in about 6 years. The Jupiter house will sell, not because of the house but because of the land. I think developers will buy next store and persuade the county to let them build mini-mansions on the 29.5 acre plot – Hovnanian opened that door and others will walk through. That will certainly not hurt our land value. But the house will need a new roof by then, and it’ll be time to move on.

Enough about that – the writing on book 3 is going well; I’m enlisting Emily and Susan R’s help with illustrating it. Yes, a picture book. Makes sense when my prime character is a 16 year old girl named Maya – sanskrit for illusion..or better description, a human who can make people think illusion is real. She’s gonna grow up fast, and a couple decades later, come back to be the major character in the second series – after the dissolution of America. I will start thinking more about that outline. Need a name for it.

All of this has come about because of the extension of Maggie Atwood’s Handmaid’s Tale – currently in season 3 on Hulu. The final episode – #13 – showed that strong women can and will sacrifice to save children. And that’s what America will need when our Giliad comes to pass. You have to admit, Mags really knew something when she put this notion out there – back in the 80’s. I’m just picking up on what she and the other writers that carried it forward began.

That’s all. Gonna go call that flooring guy.

Scrolling back through the years, I found the post starting to talk about the 2016 election – 445 days before it occurred. How about that – this is not a new phenomenon for me. But on day 445, I predicted that Hillary Clinton should not be given the Democrat nod, because she couldn’t win the general election, if pitted against establishment Republican candidates like Jeb Bush. There were several reasons why. First, after two Democrat terms, voters would be itchy for a change. Second: she was likely the most hated woman in America. Nonetheless, I thought maybe she could pull it off when competing with a demagogue like DtheT. Clearly that was wrong-headed thinking.

So this time, what are the Dems thinking of doing? Nominating Elizabeth Warren. Do we not learn, people? Fact: voters do not vote FOR candidates; they vote AGAINST candidates. Elizabeth Warren is possibly not as hated as Hillary, because she has less history. But in the end, I’d argue we will stick with the incumbent, rather than choose someone who the average voter doesn’t know and certainly doesn’t trust. So it goes to “the devil you know is better than the indian maiden you don’t know.”

So if I were to make a prediction now – wait for it – OLD Uncle Joe will continue with the gaffes, which the millennials will use as an excuse to not vote for him and it will be a head to head race between Bernie the Big Head and Loonie Lizzie. DtheT will win in a landslide. You heard it here first. No surprise – right?

I’ve already factored him in to win in my fiction…so things will get worse, per my soothsaying. How much worse? Much..not because of DtheT per se, but because his candidacy, election, presidency and re-election are totems for the condition America finds itself in. And that is why I write – the entire 5 book series will tell the tale of our downward descent into dissolution. ‘Cause that is where we are headed. Dissolution. Say it again: dissolution. No longer these United States, but separate countries, more like the breakup of the Soviet Union but in reverse – going from democracy to something new that, as yet, have no names. But they’ll be geographic, north, south, east, west. Different entities with different names, flags, capitals, anthems and borders. State legislatures will pool together to make parliaments of sorts. So in practice, it’ll be like the European Union. You won’t necessarily see border guards – too many roads in and out of each area. But you might see fencing. And relations with our borders to the north and south? They’ll be the heroes. And who first came up with this idea? Why, Maggie Atwood, of course, in creating Giliad out of a piece of America. Yes, Virginia, the new America will have its own Gilead in the heartland. And who will be the ultimate victims of all this political and economic dissolution? The next generations of children, who will suffer mightily. But this time, it won’t be caused by a bloody civil war. It will end, to quote Eliot, “not with a bang but a whimper.” That is what I’m writing about..dammit.