It’s the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the first two steps are complete: development of the menu with the accompanying shopping.  Three bottles of wine (two whites and a red) and a six pack of Fat Tire beer…oh, and the food.  I already sampled the red before finishing cooking chili last night, so the prostaglandin headache was already started.  Say three times: don’t drink red wine on an empty stomach.  It will give you a lousy headache…oh, yea.

Here’s the menu:

1. Pumpkin Soup
2. Endive and Romaine Salad with homemade Caesar dressing
3. Prime Rib Roast on the charcoal smoker
4. Pork Roast cooked on the smoker
5. Roast Duck from the oven
6. Mashed Potato Casserole
7. Stuffing with Mushrooms and Onions
8. Braised Brussels Sprouts
9. Home made cranberry and pomegranate sauce with orange
10. Pumpkin Pie or cherry cobbler with Haagen Daas vanilla bean ice cream

Notice no turkey?  Trying to avoid tryptaphan poisoning.  Not sure how many guests – somewhere between 11 and 13…so maybe everyone can sit around the same table. Much better than buffet and random seating.

Plan to play charades after sufficient alcohol is consumed to loosen inhibitions…should be fun.

I am grateful for my family, first and foremost.  Anyone who puts career or money before family is a fool, and I feel sorry for them.  Children, grandchildren…they are what make life a blessing.

I am grateful my son is finally going to get his military retirement, after all these years of chasing the government and finally bringing the VA to ground. And of course I am glad for my daughter in law Tiffany, as I’ve mentioned in a previous post.  She’s a blessing, and I sleep better knowing the Pennsylvania contingent is getting along well.   Hallelujah…

I am grateful to have two beautiful daughters Kirsten and Robin.  They are both cultured and quick-witted and love to laugh and sing…what mother could ask for more?

I am grateful my granddaughter Kiernan’s surgery is scheduled for March to fix her little heart.  We will all breathe better when that’s done…

I am grateful I have a very smart son-in-law in Colter Revak, who is also a great Dad and the guy who explains what’s wrong with my car to me.

I am grateful for my granddaughters Abigail, Cate and Emily, all three very different little ladies, but each very special in her own way.  Abby has a warm heart, Cate is watchful and over the top smart, and Emily is a computer genius who is blossoming into a very beautiful young lady.  I am extremely proud of each of them.

I am grateful I have a very smart nephew in Michael Theed, who has yet to acknowledge that he will be responsible for all of us when we’re old and drooling in our wheelchairs; and nephew Kyle Theed, talented in so many ways and my compatriot in finding new investments;

I am grateful for my brother John and his wife Carol, as John helps me with my computer issues and takes care of Ma when we get a chance to get away, with help from Carol, who loves too well for her own good, but will do anything for you in a pinch; and

Finally, I am grateful for my husband Erik, who is funny and as thoughtful as a man is capable of being, and is a great Dad and Grandfather.  No woman could ask for a better deal.

I’ve been reading a book that I stole from Erik the Younger called When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein.  Published in 2000 – well before the big crash of ’08, Roger describes the ascent and failure of a hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management (LTCM).  Funny name, given that it only lasted for four years, eh?

But since When Genius Failed was written in 2000, it is instructive in that it predates recent events.  We know all about the failure of mortgage companies, hedge funds, investment bankers and big names like AIG from previous books and books made into movies  (Too Big to Fail).  But nobody was paying attention in ’98.  And the same strategies that brought down LTCM brought down all these other companies ten years later.  Are we fated to see this happen every decade or so?  Possibly.  But  I’d argue that capitalism’s boom and bust cycles – going back as far as the late 1700’s – are fundamentally changing.  But more on that in a minute.

The book details how a bunch of egghead Ph.D., Nobel laureates got together and decided to leave academia and start a hedge fund.  Armed with some algorithms running on those old Sun microsystems (never could get mine to work back in ’90), and a bunch of money from some foolish bankers, they invested in stocks, bonds, derivatives, options – any kind of financial instrument you can name.  And they bought a whole bunch of those pieces of paper.  Their thesis was that markets become unstable for short periods of time.  Unstable markets come from the average investor reading headlines in the morning Wall Street Journal and selling his investment at a discount.  Why at a discount?  Because at the same time he’s selling, so are a bunch of other investors who read the same article (it’s that herd behavior, y’all).  Massive selling means prices drop.   LTCM steps in to buy, waits a bit for equilibrium to be restored, and ta da!  Profits.  I’m oversimplifying what was a much more complex strategy, but these arrogant ivory-tower types thought they’d bought the motherlode, and couldn’t lose.  Other arrogant individuals since the beginning of civilization have used the same strategy, not counting on what that other arrogant ivory-tower type Nassim Taleb called black swans.  Never mind about that – back to the plot.

In the summer of 1998, the unthinkable happened and Russia defaulted on its debt.  There was trouble in Brazil and in Asia as well.  Black swans.  LTCM banked on short stretches of instability – not long stretches (as in months, not days) of ever-widening spreads caused by extreme volatility.  While all of us were distracted with the Bill Clinton/Monica Lewinsky scandal, these boys were losing hundreds of millions of dollars a day.

None of this is very interesting, because it all happened again on a much bigger scale ten years later.  The interesting part is LTCM could have been saved had leadership stepped in and provided the company with sufficient capital to weather the storm.  The Fed was waiting for the banks to do it.  No individual banker wanted to stick HIS neck out to lend them money on their downswing, so no bankers would do it.  Despite encouragement from the head of the New York Fed, the bankers wouldn’t voluntarily work together to save them.  So the hedge fund failed.  It had its bones picked over by a consortium of banks that came together at the last minute.  Contrast that to 2007 when the former head of Goldman Sachs, Treasury Secretary  Hank Paulsen learned from this mistake, and with assistance from Tim Geithner, New York Fed head, and Ben Bernanke, Fed Chair and Great Depression expert, threw money at the banks and only sacrificed Lehman Brothers in the process.  Early in the crisis, he forced the banks to work together, forced them to buy failing companies (a fact I’m sure Jamie Dimon regrets now that he’s paying for Washington Mutual’s sins with a big fine) and stabilized the system by getting Congress to approve injecting $800 billion of capital into the financial system.  Interest rates dropped to zero, where they remain today – a full five going on six – years later.

So it appears that genius consistently fails, sometimes leadership saves them – and us – from destitution, and the cycle continues, as it has since the Panic of 1792.  But that guy who was almost Fed Chairman  Larry Summers has now thrown a bomb into the middle of the financial discussion, with a speech he gave on November 8th at an IMF gathering.  Here’s a link to the Youtube video of it, if you’re interested:

Larry Summers’ Speech at an IMF gathering

And what did Larry say that is now being talked about like the second coming of Christ?  He said something odd is happening today.  After nearly six years of enormous amounts of money being injected into the system (see above) and zero interest rates, the economy is still not growing.  Then – as if to stir things up, which he really likes to do – he asked a question:  what if a zero interest rate is actually a barrier to the economy improving?  What if zero is too high?  What would happen if the effective interest rate was negative?

So let’s start with a definition: what is an “effective” interest rate of zero?  If you borrow money at a rate of 5% and inflation is running at 7%, you have an effective interest rate of -2%.  But what if inflation is zero?   Or in the case of Japan for two decades and likely most of western and eastern Europe today, a country is experiencing deflation, or negative growth? Larry didn’t actually articulate the answer, because it flies in the face of current thinking, particularly in Washington.  The answer he didn’t give is this:  you pay people to borrow money.  Yes, you loan them $10 and they pay back $9.  Conversely, if you put that same $10 in a passbook savings account, when you go to take it out you’ll find only $9. Why, that’s insane, you say. A savings account is supposed to make money, right?  And if people make money by borrowing money, everyone will go crazy and pay off all their debts by borrowing.  Well, yes, in fact on a macro scale, that is what this strategy would try to make happen.  And what will be the result?  There will be some stimulation to the economy, which will likely result in – yes you can say it: inflation!

Now the Tealiban will say that is the worst kind of socialistic, communistic claptrap.  Larry Summers would say it’s an idea that at least merits discussion for the US and every other major economy in the world.

Now, we’re not talking about doing this forever – maybe for a year or two.  Then after inflation runs at 2-3% and real unemployment (i.e. people not falling off the rolls because they quit looking for work) is at 4 to 5%, then interest rates can gradually be raised.

The challenge with this idea, IMHO, lies in what happens to the party when you take the punchbowl away.  Just as people have gotten used to low interest rates, making money by borrowing money would be even more addictive.  Are you just postponing the crash and building a bigger bubble with this idea?  Maybe.  Or maybe, if it’s done right and with the cooperation of economists and economies across the globe, it might just kick start the global economy and put people back to work.  Or, as we did in 1941, we can participate in a global war, with the loss of hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives.  Which option do you prefer?  Because if something doesn’t change fairly soon, a global war may be the only alternative left.  Ever major war started with economic upheaval – yes, even the Revolutionary War (remember the tea tax that created the Boston Tea Party?  How ironic…go find Alanis again…)

As crazy as all that sounds, Larry Summers might, in fact, be a genius, and this time he might succeed, as the IMF is taking up the banner, and there’s even talk of lowering the age for Social Security.  A year ago, raising the retirement age was being discussed.  Too bad those Democrats that opposed the idea of him becoming the head of the Federal Reserve didn’t recognize genius, and put him to work for the government when they had the chance.

After untold years of paper processing, waiting, and resubmitting, Erik the Younger’s military retirement is finally about over.  According to Tiffany, the official date for it to start is December 13th of this year, or about a month away.  I say it took untold years, because he started the process so many times, and then had to start again.  So to be fair, let’s say it took 3 years, because it was in process when he deployed for the last time in 2010.  He went even when it was medically wrong.  He went back even after he nearly died of pneumonia in the spring of 2011, a few scant months after his arrival in the treacherous mountains of the Hindu Kush.

So we should be grateful to the military for finally getting its act together, after this momentous effort on Erik’s part.  We should be grateful that they’ll give him a monthly stipend in exchange for all he endured, physically and emotionally, in those horrific places.  So are we grateful?  I suppose we are.

But Erik’s story has a happy ending because he has a wife that is a magnificant combination of attributes that buoyed him in the lows, chided him when it was needed,and  kicked ASS when the army treated him shabbily after his return from Kunar Province.  So I give credit where it’s due: to Tiffany Drewniak Cloud Olson – my heroine of the millenium.  And – to his credit – that wonderful son of mine knows he has a jewel in that woman, and treasures her beyond the spoken word.  So thank you, Tiffany D.C. Olson.  You are the best daughter in law a mom could ever wish for.

On October 13th of last year, I posted a “What If” piece contrasting what would happen if Obama were elected versus Mitt.  Here’s what I said would be the reality if Obama were re-elected:

…this country continues to escalate toward deeper divisions. In spite of the Democrats retaining control of the Senate, there will be no progress in 4 years, the economy will continue to be Japan-like in perpetual shadow, and the Republicans will win overwhelmingly in 2016, likely with Jeb Bush as President. However, the one thing we’ll be able to say in 2016 is that we extricated ourselves from two bottomless-pit wars in the Middle East, and the countries in that region still simmer but haven’t erupted into full scale war. Ehud Barak will be the next Prime Minister, and Bibi will – once again – be put out to pasture. Only Kim Young-Un, the chubby and hapless child leader of North Korea, will still be the only nuclear “threat”, and life will go on.

So what actually occurred in this first year of Barry O’s administration?  Thus far, I was right about the economy and the Dems retaining control of the Senate (remember: I wrote this before the election last November, so kudos are in order here, thank you very much..).  I still believe the Republicans will win in 2016, with a middle of the roader candidate because the current administration will continue to deteriorate.  We will have extricated ourselves from Iraq and Afghanistan, but what’s happening in Syria could hardly be called ‘simmering’, so points off there.  Wrong about Barak – Bibi is stronger than ever and Ehud was the one put out to pasture.  You know how I think that’ll turn out if you’ve read previous posts…and so far the young’un isn’t much of a threat and Iran will continue to either deteriorate and then go nuclear, or find common ground with Bibi and Barack, and go semi-nuclear. At this point, that’s as likely as Erik winning the lottery, particularly since he almost never buys tickets.

So then I wrote this about if Mittens won:

The least of our issues is that we will have a Republican President, a Republican House of Representatives full of tea party supporters that want to dismantle the country back to the 18th Century, and a Republican majority in the Senate because the Vice President votes in case of tie. What will come of that?

The Tea Party will be transcendent. There will be a significant amount of legislation coming out of the House and failed to be blocked in the Senate in the following areas:

Health Care – kill the Affordable Care Act and replace it with – nothing.

Abortion – ban all forms of abortion with no exceptions – this will get thru as a function of Catholic Democrats, and Romney will be faced with a crisis of the first magnitude – will he sign or veto? He’ll sign. Planned Parenthood and a dozen other entities will file suit, and after 3 years, the law will be found to be unconstitutional. Just in time for the next election.

The Fiscal Cliff – the economy will go into recession, which Romney will blame on the policies of his predecessor. There will be no more global trade, with sanctions ratcheted up beyond anything Smoot-Hawley enacted. This incites a breakdown in all communication between the U.S., China, Europe and Russia. We will emerge from a crippled four years, just in time for Romney to attempt another 4 years, and the Presidency will be won by a Democrat to be named. But that Democrat will inherit a very bad world indeed.

What about the Middle East? Bibi Netanyahu now has an ally in the White House. This will embolden him to force Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which everyone knows are deep underground and hardened to withstand just an attack. Ehud Barak will resign from the government, and emigrate to the U.S., knowing what is coming.

So what about all that?  Well, ironically, most of this stuff is, in fact, happening even with Barry O at the putative helm.  The Tealiban continues to have its way, having succeeded in shutting down the government and nearly causing a world-wide catastrophe with their ignorant lurching toward default.   The Affordable Care Act is toast, not as a function of the Tealiban’s actions, but because the government is incapable of developing software on the scale attempted.  Abortion is effectively banned in Texas, with the appeals court allowing it to happen, colluding in the attempt to get the Supremes to overturn Roe.  Eddie Snowden’s “defection” to Russia and his revelations about NSA spying on world leaders has significantly alienated us from China, Europe and Russia.   Bibi has effectively mounted an attack on Iran, not with missiles but with rhetoric designed to keep Barry O from negotiating with Rouhani long enough for Iran to implode (again, see previous posts on that topic).

Isn’t it ironic, dontcha think?  A little tooo ironic..As always, gentle readers, the soothsayer says what is so..but not soothing.

Well, the so-called “crisis” is over vis-a-vis the shenanigans in D.C. relative to budgets, fault lines and the incomparable ability of political operatives to be myopic. So Planet Susan is back, with thoughts on a variety of topics. Let’s start with:

The Affordable Care Act website. The girl’s pic is gone (oh, my – what does that mean??!!) … carrumba…after all, she did sort of look Hispanic – … – ?? Now let’s get serious. The problem with the ACA’s website isn’t the initial issues with the GUI (the front end that wouldn’t let more than 3 people on at a time), it’s with the back end. What’s the back end? When you get to the point in the program where the verification of income stuff starts, the program has to connect to other servers in other parts of the gumment – namely the IRS and HHS. That’s when the really big crash occurs. Apples are trying to get it on with oranges, which is likely never going to really work out, is it? Two completely different programs that are incompatible are unlikely to match up, so at some point the Obamites are going to have to kill that connection. Can you hear the Republican howling now? Rich scofflaws (i.e. people making more than $10 an hour) are getting gumment subsidized health care for free! Yup…but you agreed … yup, but you can’t get there from here without completely starting over. Well, OK, let’s start completely over and delay this thing for another, oh say decade or so. You heard it here first.

Next topic: things economic. Ambrose E-P says the debtor countries in western Europe are doing even worse than they were before. Germany is killing them, and the ECB (European Central Bank) is sitting on its hands and not doing anything to help. Now the death by deflation virus has spread to eastern Europe. Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Latvia are all experiencing flat to negative growth. Close on their heels is Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic. So it would appear that all the trading partners within the European Union are gridlocked into a nascent recession. Only little Poland is hanging in there, having not succumbed to the siren song of excess debt from hot money in the early part of the 21st century. Ambrose accuses the ECB of having a ‘chronic German bias’, although the irony is that Germany’s GDP is flat now as well. Makes sense – none of their normal trading partners have any money to spend, so they were left with China and the BRICs. Bad news there – China is putatively tightening to try to have a soft landing from their real estate bubble, and the BRICs are broke too. Who’s next? Aw, gee, Ma, even Forrest Gump could figure that out. Expect to see the US economy slow down this quarter and next. That will ensure the FED will not ‘taper’, putting more hot money into the system, making the Chinese real estate bubble even bigger. Andy Xie continually writes on that topic, claiming within a few months you’ll hear a giant scratching sound emanating from China as the needle comes off the LP and the musical chairs tune ends. No slowdown in tapering will render Andy’s prognostication premature. But the beat goes on. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, watch the market for opportunities to invest – your Christmas present might be a 10% or so correction. Coming soon!

Last topic: travel to D.C. We went over a week ago, and I haven’t even taken the camera out of the travel bag to download the 600-odd pictures Emily took. Guess I need to get my act together and provide a report on the doin’s, eh? Yeah, yeah…later!

“A focused mind is one of the most powerful forces in the universe.”

“Faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things unseen.”

Two messages from today’s Fortune Cookies after lunch at the Chinese buffet.

The stalemate is over and gumment workers are back at it. At least for the time being.

Good news: when we go to D.C. on Saturday the Smithsonian will be open and Em can look at dinosaur bones.

The bad news: the unchastened fringe will be back at it, first in December with the budget and then on January 15th with the debt ceiling. January 15th is my birthday. Maybe my present will be a long term plan that includes cooperation and putting the good of the country first. About as likely as my getting a miracle.

“It is the mark of the mind untrained to take its own processes as valid for all men, and its own judgments for absolute truth.”
― Aleister Crowley, Magical and Philosophical Commentaries on The Book of the Law

In times like these men should utter nothing for which they would not be willingly responsible through time and in eternity.
Abraham Lincoln

“There is only the trying. The rest is not our business.”

T.S. Eliot