416 More days until the question will be answered: are we continuing to deteriorate or are angels still looking over our collective shoulders?

The answer will only come when if one side wakes up from what they perceive to be a terrible dream and then goes over to the dark side/light. To me, there’s no equivocation on the topic: Trump is dangerous and should not have a second term to make things worse. Those who support him are liable to raise quiet a ruckus if he should happen to not win…and that is when the proverbial rubber will meet the road. Will our institutions save us? We will end up with a government of the Trump, by the Trump and for the Trump? I wish I knew the answer to that question. I surely hope so.

Sleep is not my friend, and every once in a while, insomnia hits me big time. The last two nights were like that..so first night I binge watched The Unabomber and last night watched MIB International with Robin & Colter. Commentary follows.

The story of how the FBI caught Ted Kaczynski was interesting from the perspective that 1) the story that came out in the media at the time far differed from the ‘real’ story; and 2) the FBI caught Ted in spite of their efforts, not because of them. If Ted’s sister-in-law Linda hadn’t bugged her husband David into indirectly contacting the FBI anonymously, they’d still be looking. Investigating the anonymous tip required extraordinary effort on the part of a female agent; without that work on her part, he’d still be out there making and sending bombs.

It’s always difficult to discern how accurate these biopics are – you know, individuals are ‘composites’ of several characters, time frames might be changed, and details of the take down of the suspect are often exaggerated for dramatic effect. But in this case, I think the facts are pretty straightforward, if flawed. You have to read Ted’s manifesto to see that. The main character, an agent named ‘Fitz’, aka James Fitzgerald, must persist mightily with the POB to get them to go after the likes of their nemesis. They were looking for the exact opposite of Ted, using their old methods of detection. Maybe that was part of Ted’s plan – he was a genius, after all. But I don’t think that’s it at all. It was a case of macho male thinking versus intuitive, female-style thinking which apparently Fitz had a smattering of. He also had help – from women, naturally. In fact, the female agent that was the key to the whole thing got fired for breaking the rules. That came out in the story, but apparently Ted never knew about it. Otherwise, he might have used it as part of the defense he wanted to invoke: the fruit of the poisonous tree as he called it. But his efforts concerned the wording of the warrant and the lack of precedence for linguistic usage as a basis for searching his cabin. Nobody was going to buy that anyway…the evidence was overwhelming, and it hinged on the material found in the cabin. Sorry, Ted – public defenders wanted to put you away too. Or get you sent to a mental institution instead of the SuperMax torture chamber in Colorado.

The error I reference above was Fitz noting the use of the words broad or chick and Negro in the manifesto. He assumed Ted was older because nobody used those words any more. But Ted was using them in context – in fact, identifying them as old expressions for women and African Americans to make a point. But I’m being nitpicky. Who knows if that was the writer’s imagination or a path Fitz actually followed. But the series was worth watching. MIB International was not.

In spite of a host of stars (blonde Emma again..jeez), MIBI stunk because the writing was bad. The same guy who wrote the original Iron Man script wrote this one, with another guy. The plot was trite and totally predictable. The emphasis was on CGI creatures versus a real story; and the name actors just walked through their parts instead of interacting effectively with one another. Having said all that, the movie made 2 1/2 times its costs back in ticket sales. Just goes to show – a winning franchise name is all you need these days to make money. So sad.

Watching the returns come in for the 9th District North Carolina special election proves that hope springs eternal in the human heart. The Republican won, and then the commentary started. Oh..My..God!

Everybody took credit for the win, including DtheT/crazy. Dems were lambasted for not turning up. The local public television guy got closest to the reality of the situation, saying the Bishop campaign just did a better job of getting out the vote. But let’s look at the facts.

Geremandering (recall named for Ellsworth Gerry) puts the NC 9th at a Republican +8 standing, per the Cook Political Report. Only a few districts anywhere in the country have flipped those – one in Georgia that had been redistricted after the 2010 census to include more suburban, rich, white folks, and another in Minnesota where voters are capable of just about anything …Jesse Ventura…’nuf said.

So digging deeper into the numbers, McCready lost by about 4,000 votes – 4 times the number he lost by to the previous Republican candidate – a guy named Harris who hired cheaters to throw away absentee ballots and likely cause McReady to lose. But I digress. This time, one county flipped big time – Robeson County.

According to the local paper, their state senator, a popular guy named Britt, was good friends with the Republican winner Bishop in the state house. Britt campaigned hard and in a very organized fashion for Bishop. Also, Bishop helped the Lumbee Indians, who make up a large portion of Robeson County, with some state legislation. Finally, there was a Lumbee Indian Democratic candidate on the ballot in 2018 that likely helped McReady. No Lumbee Indian in the 2019 election repeat.

So there you have it – it wasn’t Trump, it wasn’t lack of turnout from the Dems, it was local politics and a lazy local Dem party that had taken a lot of these normally Democratic voters for granted. Who said all politics is local?Tip O’Neill is credited with it..and he’s probably right. Just look at a political map of the US of A. Notice any color trends? Trump will win in 2020. Really. Sorry, folks…big sigh..

60 weeks left until the election that could let us off the Trump train. What can happen in a mere 60 weeks? Most revolutions take less than that to finalize and dispatch the monarch(s). The world could be vaporized in 60 weeks. But if that happens, you’ll never know how my pentalogy of stories ends (that means five stories that connect in some way). So we’d best KBO and not let the world end yet.

Oh boy, here we go again. Sorry to bring this up again, but it is sort of the topic du jour. Here’s the quote from a guy named Shawn Rosenberg: ” In sum, the majority of Americans are generally unable to understand or value democratic culture, institutions, practices or citizenship in the manner required,” Rosenberg has concluded. “To the degree to which they are required to do so, they will interpret what is demanded of them in distorting and inadequate ways. As a result they will interact and communicate in ways that undermine the functioning of democratic institutions and the meaning of democratic practices and values.”

This is from a paper delivered at the meeting of the International Society of Political Psychologists held in Lisbon last month. This fellow Rosenberg is pretty famous in his circle, so I expect what he says carries some weight. His thesis is “Democracy is devouring itself and it won’t last.” Democracy is devouring itself..now that’s a fraught line if ever I saw one. What he’s really saying is that the lazy, impressionable, stupid people in America are giving away their freedoms to the convenience of the fascist state that will make their decisions for them. So we’re like Russian peasants in 1917? Shawn seems to think so.

So now we’ve heard from another egghead/thought leader/columnist that we are doomed as a country. The ‘golden age’ of democracy lasted only about 70 years…there’s some irony…the Soviet Union lasted about 70 years. Is there something special about that number? It represents three generations…the theory being it takes three generations to forget the horrors that were inflicted on the world 70 years ago.

If democracy is to end and authoritarianism is to take its place, then the institutions of democracy will go with it. Who needs elections every four years? Maybe a president for life is what we need. I know a guy who’d volunteer for the job. In fact, in November of 2020, he might insist on it.

In conclusion, all this reminds me of a song by a Norwegian singer, Ane Brun called One. You may remember it if you’re an avid PBS watcher, as they used it in their ads. Here’s the end of the song’s lyrics:

Stones from dust
Anger from fear
Poetry from heartbeats
Revolution from dreams
Revolution from dreams
Revolution from dreams
It all starts somewhere
It all starts with one
Everything comes from something
It all starts with one
Starts with one

The trouble will start with someone we can’t even begin to imagine yet. But it will end with revolution and war – somewhere. Here? Maybe

Wanna talk about a couple of movies I’ve just seen – one on APrime and one in the theater at that wonderful place called Cinepolis.

The first one is Late Night with Emma T and Mindy K and the rest are just the usual suspects with a very much wasted John Lithgow. Sad to see..anyway, Emma has a late night show (remember Joan Rivers? No? Oh, um..anyway) late night show and the ratings are sagging so the stereotypical bitch network lady head says she’s going to be fired – but worse, replaced with a potty mouth young vulgarian boy cumedian (yes, I used that word on purpose – I hope I invented it and didn’t just copy some silly milly).

Poor Emma has to have a comuppance and a good sanding as she becomes ‘nice’ – and Mindy is there to suffer, but nevertheless to save the mostly ungrateful Em. It was like The Devil Wears Prada meets any Bollywood movie of late, but without the music and dancing. Guess you get the feeling I didn’t like it. Well, that’s not the point. It’s sort of like a meta movie – but not nearly as good as, say Truffaut’s Day for Night or even Altman’s Pret a Porter. Mindy probably has suffered on her way to the top where she’s now calling the shots. And Emma probably has struggled with getting replaced by younger…actors. But in this case, it’s just all too predictable. Cue the crying under the desk. Cue the last minute scandal to hurt the long-suffering husband in the background. Geez..We’ve dumbed down movies and now that Em is a blonde, she can play just about anybody you want to see? Goodbye Nanny McFizzle. Hello Anatomic Blonde.

Then there’s the second film – a tiny little thing with no promo and probably shoulda gone straight to video, but it didn’t, and we saw it at that lovely Cinepolis and … it was great. Film name? The Peanut Butter Falcon…Shia LeBoeuf (or however you spell his name – too tired to look it up – you know who I mean) with Dakota Johnson, Bruce Dern, that skinny bad guy you’ve seen a hundred times (ok..here’s his picture) and a marvelous little actor graduate from Dreyfoos School of the Arts named Zack ..he’s here too…guess which is which…hint – Zack Gottsagen has Down’s syndrome and frankly he did as good a job as any of the Hollywoodies.

A simple little adventure story with a well played sound track and a mention of the old home town as a sort of Nirvana for a mourning kid in trouble – what more could you want? Check it out…don’t waste your time on Late Night – it’ll just make you more cynical..like me.

And Now a Word from a Fanatic? The title of David Brook’s column today. The Comments are actually more interesting than the piece, but in line with yesterday’s post, here’s a quote from the column: “Catastrophizing is my mind-set. Catastrophizing is pure: Society is totally corrupt. The “system” is totally rotten. I am terrified by ambiguity and ambivalence, the idea that the glass might be only half full. I seize on the extreme example of anything and take it to be the typical case. In this way I create my truth. An immigrant committed murders, so immigrants are murderers. “

Here’s another line from his column; I’ll start my discussion from this one:

“To know anything about me you have to understand the chaos at the core of my innermost being. “

So now we have another ‘thought leader’ describing these characters who are ‘catastrophizing’…is that a word? With chaos – there’s that word again – at the core of his innermost being. Yes, his. A fair number of these individuals are like mass shooters – disaffected, under or unemployed males. That’s the picture being painted. So the comments on the piece? They fall into two categories: First – The Russians are Coming..no! The Russians are Here!! They’re the ones posting this scary stuff. Second: those of us on the left can’t be included with the trolls from the right, because we’re all good and they’re all bad. Jeez – kinda reinforces his point, eh?

But no. The world of internet commentary is binary and simple, but more like a reality tv show than real life. So much of this is made up, and because he can be anonymous on the ‘net, he’ll say most anything. Why? Because for a brief moment, he can be the star of his own little reality show.

The real radicals right now are the folks – young and old – filling the streets of Hong Kong. You wouldn’t be likely to find any of these internet commentators doing such a radical thing – it would interfere with their on-line gaming and commentary time. The citizens of Hong Kong protesting what they consider overreach by Beijing through Carrie Lam, the administrator, are defending their little island in a sea of repression. I’m confident the central committee back on the mainland would describe these individuals as equivalent to the person Brooks and the Danish/Philadelphia authors describe. But the protesters are just trying to be left alone to live their lives, distanced from the overreach and control of the Chinese Communist authorities. Hail Hong Kong protesters – may you be spared another Tiananmen Square fate.

This is what I believe to be true. When the chips are down, so to speak, when the issues are real and meaningful, internet rants will turn into action. But my question is: when does a group decide the issues are real? Who is the group? It could be anybody about anything. It makes for a fascinating time to be alive, eh?

The circulation of hostile political rumors (including but not limited to false news and conspiracy theories) has gained prominence in public debates across advanced democracies. Here, we provide the first comprehensive assessment of the psychological syndrome that elicits motivations to share hostile political rumors among citizens of democratic societies. Against the notion that sharing occurs to help one mainstream political actor in the increasingly polarized electoral competition against other mainstream actors, we demonstrate that sharing motivations are associated with ‘chaotic’ motivations to “burn down” the entire established democratic ‘cosmos’. We show that this extreme discontent is associated with motivations to share hostile political rumors, not because such rumors are viewed to be true but because they are believed to mobilize the audience against disliked elites. We introduce an individual difference measure, the “Need for Chaos”, to measure these motivations and illuminate their social causes, linked to frustrated status-seeking. Finally, we show that chaotic motivations are surprisingly widespread within advanced democracies, having some hold in up to 40 percent of the American national population.

That’s the abstract for the paper I mentioned yesterday. Thomas Edsall found it, and wrote about it in the NY Times yesterday. I think the authors from Denmark and Philadelphia are onto something.

Desiring chaos as a way to feel better about oneself – a story as old as time. Brings to mind Coriolanus again..the citizens and some ‘populist’ politicians of Rome, work hard to bring down the hero Caius Marcius. The result in Edward De Vere, alias Shakespeare’s play, is the hero turns against Rome and teams up with the enemy at the gates. Edsall picks up on this, wondering what will happen if Trump loses in 2020. Interesting question – likely not a pretty answer.

This notion has been in my head too. My latest series of installments reflects this idea, but in a different way. My ‘intellectual’ web guru is the sower of chaos. The down- and- outers in the story fall under his spell and behave monstrously out of a combination of fear and love..fear of the future and love for their children. It becomes a sort of mass psychosis, and once started, it gets normalized. The guru is motivated by anger at his institution for stealing his patents and then firing him. Sowing chaos makes him feel he is somehow getting even with these ‘elites’ – just as the authors of this paper indicate. When he starts his podcasts, it’s within a relatively small sphere of people. Once the ‘system’ tries to stop him, he goes national with his persuasive, simple to understand messages. Along the way, he takes down liars, hypocrites and pornographers. So who’s the good guy and who’s the baddie here? Depends on your perspective.

Haven’t written in six days – been running away from Hurricanes.

Close but no cigar…sorry, Dorian.

Have an interesting piece to parse ..ha ha.. but not today – still recovering from four days away from home. Tomorrow..I promise. But I did go back to the gym today – hurray for me.

Later

Day 432 and the topic du jour is again the weather – should we stay or should we flee to Tallahassee? That is the question we are currently waffling about.

My instinct is to stay put, dashing the hopes of in-house daughter that she’ll have the house to herself, weather be damned. Yeah – that makes as much sense to me as the current model runs.

What we got here is failure to communicate (Strother Martin, Cool Hand Luke). The two pre-eminent models, the European and the GFS – otherwise known as the American – don’t agree on where the eye of the storm is going. Thus far, neither has been particularly accurate with this hurricane. It was supposed to hit Puerto Rico (bless their hearts) but instead, changed course and hit the Virgin Islands. The American model has been updated this year, so it’s the maiden voyage for the ‘new and improved’ version. Wonderful. It says the storm will hit Florida somewhere near Jacksonville. The European model has been the most accurate the last few years in predicting storm paths, and it’s the one that says Dorian is going to hit us dead on. So what does the weather service do? The split the difference between the two and predict a mid-state direct hit. Either way, at least half of the east coast of Florida will be hit simultaneous with what’s referred to as king tides. What’s that? Higher than normal tides that coincide with new or full moons. That will occur just about the time the storm makes landfall in Florida. Coastal areas will see longer retention times for water because it can’t recede with the higher tides. Not our problem.

What to do? Prepare as best we can. The generator works; we have flashlights and lanterns for when we lose power. We have a gas cooktop, gas hot water heater and gas dryer, so they will all be available to use. Just have to ensure a steady gasoline supply to keep the generator fed…the Achilles heel of hurricane preparedness. The local gas stations all seem to run out about the same time. Ah well…we’ll just KBO.