Swimming in the community pool yesterday with Erik and Emily the mermaid, I got to thinking about the cast of characters in the current Syria ‘crisis’. The more I thought about it, hanging on the edge in the deep end of the pool, the more confused I got. So Monday mid-morning, I went to the Internet to get something of a score card, or a ‘who’s who’ in the area to try to sort this out. This is a summary of what I concluded:

Alawites run Syria. Alawites are an off-shoot sect of Shia Islam;
Syria is aligned with Iran;
Iran is Shia-dominated;
Iraq is now dominated by Shia;
Lebanon is Shia;
Hezbollah runs Lebanon;
Iraq, Hezbollah and Iran are aligned to help Syria;
Saudi Arabia is Sunni;
Pakistan is predominantly Sunni;
The Taliban are Sunni;
The Muslim Brotherhood is Sunni;
Chechens are Sunni;
Chechens are, have been and will continue to be a real problem for Russia;
Egypt just threw out the Muslim Brotherhood, and is currently supported by Saudi Arabia…likely because of inroads Shia are making in the Egyptian Parliament;
Pakistan is nuclear;
Syria harshly put down a Muslim Brotherhood revolt in Hama, Syria in the 80’s;
Israel is not any kind of Muslim;
Israel is nuclear;
Israel reacts strongly to perceived threats.

So given all those facts, here’s some likely realities for the near term:

Congress will reject the call to strike Syria with some form of attack;
That rejection will send a strong message to the Saudis, the Taliban, & Pakistan that the U.S. is no longer going to be manipulated into fighting their battles for them; so just as Tom Cole, Congressman from Oklahoma said this morning on NPR,

Syria represents a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Al Qaeda is Sunni;
Al Qaeda is the real strength in the forces fighting Assad.
Al Qaeda is behind the continuing civil strife in Iraq with daily car bombs aimed at Shia neighborhoods;
Hezbollah has left Lebanon to its own devices while it goes to Syria trying to defend the nearly last bastion of Shia dominance;

So When (not if) Assad falls, then
Iraq falls; and then
Lebanon falls.

So that leaves Iran as the only Shia stronghold left.

In the not-too-distant future, Iran will possess the capability to build a nuclear weapon. If they don’t have it now, they’re going to buy it from North Korea.

The entire region will have become a nesting ground for Al Qaeda with the exception of Iran and Israel;

Iran has been weakened by years of sanctions, which were heavily promoted by the U.S.;
Iran’s only option left is the nuclear option to threaten its Sunni neighbors (recall the uprising in 2009 hastily put down by the Republican Guard in Iran);
Threatening their immediate neighbors anywhere close by with the nuclear option spells massive destruction for all of them, including Iran; and thus I come to my baffling conclusion:

Iran, Israel, Russia and the U.S. now have a common enemy in the resurgent Al Qaeda and should band together to find some reasonable solutions to the immediate problems in Syria

Having come to that conclusion just before lunch, I return from Fajita Salad at Ay Jalisco to find the headlines from the New York Times:

Kerry Floats a Deal on Arms, and Russia and Syria Seize It

Maybe Russia has begun to figure all this out. It would appear that we haven’t. Or have we? My really cynical side says that Obama, being the clever man he is, has figured this out. Further, he realizes – like me – there really isn’t a bloody thing the U.S. can do about it. So why not make hay at home while the sun still shines? Obama is playing a three-steps-ahead game of chess while the Republicans are playing Candyland. He thought he was luring the Republicans into the trap of voting against this ‘Brer Rabbit’ punch. But Kerry’s goofball response and Russia’s jumping on the suggestion changes the equation considerably.

So will this change the inevitable outcome? Nope…the inevitable will occur when it occurs. The impact on the U.S.? A spike in oil prices because of instability in the middle east that affects 10% of our imports – imports that could be made up elsewhere, but the price will still be higher. The impact on Israel? Good question, but over the longer term, it’s likely that Israel will be fighting for its life when Al Qaeda emerges victorious in the region and can turn its attention to getting rid of the ‘infidels’. When this occurs, and Israel is surrounded by the resurgent Al Qaeda fighting machine, who will be held to blame? Why the U.S., of course. And who will everyone recall that wouldn’t approve a simple request to fire a few cruise missiles at Syria? Obama will be long out of office by then, and the new Republican President Jeb Bush will have to sort all this out.

Post-script: Charlie Rose snuck into Damascus apparently on Friday and had a live interview with Bashar Al-Assad on Saturday. That’s why Al Hunt from Bloomberg had to substitute for Charlie on Friday night with talking heads Jackie Calmes (I think Al was calling her Jackie Collins), Mark Halperin and David Ignatius of the hair implants. What a coup! That man is nothing if not amazing…

Post-post-script: Watched the interview. Assad believes everyone in Syria loves him and the terrorist rebels were responsible for the chemical attack. Guess he and the Paulster have a lot in common in their thinking…Dangerous place to be right now, Randy boy…