It Ain’t What They Call You – It’s What You Answer To

I commented on a piece written by a guy out in Colorado yesterday. He’s a statistician/economist blogger, and has been writing his stuff for the past five years. In a random review thru his multi-year postings, I noted that he has never had one comment on anything he’s written in five years. That is amazing. He had the confidence and discipline to write hundreds of blog items about the economy, both at home and foreign, without anyone ever even acknowledging his work. Oh – by the way? He has no ads, so this isn’t something he apparently does for money. So his latest entry was musing about how much longer interest rates would remain this low. I could find nothing in his statement with which to disagree, so I just asked him a question. The question, in essence, was whether the expectation of a continuation makes it continue? In fact, I referred to it as continuation expectation. I think maybe I’ve invented a new phrase! I’ll have to google it and see if I invented it or stole it, albeit subconsciously. But my point was in the 60’s thru the early 80’s, there was an expectation that inflation would continue. As such, people saved little and bought stuff, because it was bound to be more expensive later. Now we have deflation, with an expectation that these low interest rates will be around for a long time to come. So with no rush, don’t buy today – it might be cheaper tomorrow. Japan is a perfect example of that – for over two decades!

My hat is off to this fellow, who calls his blog “Common Sense Forecaster”. Here’s a link if you’re interested.

http://commonsenseforecaster.blogspot.com/2012_08_01_archive.html