The presidential race is, as it always was going to be, boiling down to Ohio. Just as in 2004 with George Bush and John Kerry, the incumbent’s hopes rest on the blue collar workers in the small counties surrounding cities like Columbus and Cincinnati. As such, let’s develop two different scenarios – i.e., play the What if? game.

What if the scenario plays out that those little counties’ voters resist those faux ads about the deficit, Home Depot’s hypocritical chairman (more about him in a minute) and the Libya fake accusations to give their support to Obama? He will squeak by with a fractional point in the popular vote and have just barely enough electoral votes to get 4 more years.

But just as with George W. Bush, it will be clear – despite his crowing to the contrary – that this country continues to escalate toward deeper divisions. In spite of the Democrats retaining control of the Senate, there will be no progress in 4 years, the economy will continue to be Japan-like in perpetual shadow, and the Republicans will win overwhelmingly in 2016, likely with Jeb Bush as President.

However, the one thing we’ll be able to say in 2016 is that we extricated ourselves from two bottomless-pit wars in the Middle East, and the countries in that region still simmer but haven’t erupted into full scale war. Ehud Barak will be the next Prime Minister, and Bibi will – once again – be put out to pasture. Only Kim Young-Un, the chubby and hapless child leader of North Korea, will still be the only nuclear “threat”, and life will go on.

Now let’s look at the other What If? scenario. Those little counties around Columbus and Cincinnati fall for the Republican line about fiscal conservatism, saving Medicare by killing it for the next generation and such? Romney wins Ohio, Romney squeaks by with enough electoral votes, maybe with or without the popular vote. Then what plays out?

The least of our issues is that we will have a Republican President, a Republican House of Representatives full of tea party supporters that want to dismantle the country back to the 18th Century, and a Republican majority in the Senate because the Vice President votes in case of tie. What will come of that?

The Tea Party will be transcendent. There will be a significant amount of legislation coming out of the House and failed to be blocked in the Senate in the following areas:

Health Care – kill the Affordable Care Act and replace it with – nothing.

Abortion – ban all forms of abortion with no exceptions – this will get thru as a function of Catholic Democrats, and Romney will be faced with a crisis of the first magnitude – will he sign or veto? He’ll sign. Planned Parenthood and a dozen other entities will file suit, and after 3 years, the law will be found to be unconstitutional. Just in time for the next election.

The Fiscal Cliff – the economy will go into recession, which Romney will blame on the policies of his predecessor. There will be no more global trade, with sanctions ratcheted up beyond anything Smoot-Hawley enacted. This incites a breakdown in all communication between the U.S., China, Europe and Russia. We will emerge from a crippled four years, just in time for Romney to attempt another 4 years, and the Presidency will be won by a Democrat to be named. But that Democrat will inherit a very bad world indeed.

What about the Middle East? Bibi Netanyahu now has an ally in the White House. This will embolden him to force Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which everyone knows are deep underground and hardened to withstand just an attack. Ehud Barak will resign from the government, and emigrate to the U.S., knowing what is coming.

The result? Israel mounts an attack on Iran’s facilities. The attack fails. He calls upon Romney for boots on the ground support for an invasion of Iran. Romney’s rhetoric appears to support the request. The rest of the world condemns both countries. But Iran has friends in big places – like Russia and China. Russia and China – already alienated over trade issues – will come to Iran’s rescue. Israel will become the pariah of the world, politically and economically. I could even envision Kim Young-un being blamed for giving Iran the bomb, even tho’ it will later be shown it was Russia and/or China. The result? Potentially the demise of the small country of Israel. And all anybody will be able to say is – they brought it on themselves by going too far and being unwilling to compromise. We’ll see a repeat of the beginning of World War II, with Israel going first, then impacts to Japan and other countries in the Middle East like Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain. The difference will be this time it’s nuclear.

So what can you say about these two scenarios? The economy is toast for another 4 years, regardless. We will not be prepared for a total disruption in the flow of oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which will make the price of oil $300 a barrel. The petroleum industry will collapse, awaiting the expansion of facilities in Mexico, Canada and the US. The world economy will be in a depression that will make 1930 look attractive.

And who will be blamed? Israel, yes the little country of Israel. So the head of Home Depot with his commercial about us not needing another 4 years of Obama, who represents the Jewish lobby – will aid and abet in killing millions of Jews. Ironic, isn’t it?