Connections

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Mainstream American media – print and televised – has virtually ignored the crisis brewing in the world at this very moment. Oh, occasionally they report a tiny portion of the crisis; the situation in Ukraine or the progress being made in talks between the EU and Greece. Even the best of them – PBS Newshour – doesn’t connect the dots between these seemingly disparate events. But like the world in 1937 folks1937, there are connections. And it appears it is up to me to explain them to the world. So here goes.

OK, the headlines say there’s progress being made in talks between GreeceGreece and the EU because Greece has asked for an extension. There was even commentary about Germany’s reaction to the request. But what the headline doesn’t say is that there’s every potential in the next 7 days for intransigent players to bring down the misbegotten experiment called the EUEU. Big deal, you say…so what does that mean to me and mine? Like many previous world-changing events, nothing really – in the beginning. But eventually there will be hell to pay for us all. Let’s explore why, by proceeding carefully through the minefield of current events.

First, since we started talking about Greece, let’s discuss that some more. Greece made a proposal to buy some time with a loan extension, and everybody connected breathed a sigh of relief that the can had been kicked down the road. But then Germany comes back and disses the proposal, direspecting the Greeks at a time when SyrizaSyriza’s members are dismayed at even the extent of the current compromise offered by Alex Tsipras, the head of the party and now the head of national government. So there is every possibility that by next week, no agreement will be reached. Greece is now experiencing a currency drain that has effectively rendered the country bankrupt. Can you blame people for moving their money before the banks collapse? But where are these wealthy Greeks moving their money to? German bankGerman banks. Think that won’t cause a big dust-up next week? Yeah, I’d say.

Spain has suffered right alongside Greece with austerity cuts. They have made systemic changes, and are in fact on the verge of emerging from these troubled times in better shape than they were when all they had was a housing bubble to sustain – or not – their economy. But politics is a fickle gal. The left wing Spanish party is called PodemosPodemos. Podemos in Spanish means “We can”. Gee – I wonder where that came from (Yes we can…remember that Yes We Can posterslogan?) Podemos is rising in popularity in Spain, likely a byproduct of the same austerity measures that has pushed Greek unemployment to 25%. The austerity demands of the EU in Spain reduced workers pay, which worked for a while but now that Greece is making waves, Spain is concerned that Podemos’ supporters will be looking to get those concessions back. More unrest in the ranks.

It was settled that the EU would finally implement Quantitative Easing – but now Germany has created a faction within the European Central Bank to oppose that as well. Not that that really matters – it’s too little, too late – as is obvious from the rest of this story I’m telling. As previously mentioned, the horse in daffodilshorse left the barn long ago.

So what’s the impact of all this? The impact is on that other big story featured in the headlines – Putin versus natoNATO. If you stop and think about it, the majority of those countries currently members of the EU are also members of NATO. If the EU breaks up, what happens to NATO? As previously discussed, I think NATO is already a paper tiger, one being regularly tested by Putin. There’s a piece in today’s NY Times that Russian bomberRussian bombers were ‘escorted’ out of British airspace by scrambled jets. Apparently this hasn’t happened since the end of the cold war. It would appear that Brother P is starting to test NATO in relatively unprovocative ways. But with the economic events coming to a head, it’s likely he’ll increase that provocation, and it will be closer to home. The so-called truce negotiated by Merkel and HollandFrancois and Angela last week never took hold; the eastern Ukrainian rebels are winning more territory, and working on heading further west. This is a direct test of NATO, one clearly organized and supported by Russia.

So as the EU squabbles and then breaks up, Putin will be waiting to invite the old old soviet republicsSSR’s back into the fold. They have, throughout history, been pawns in the games of larger states on either side of them – Germany and Russia. They generally side with whoever’s winning. And because of pride, venality and frankly just plain stupidity, right now the game winner is putin & crimeaVladimir Putin.

And what about us? The Treasury Secretary has been on the fringes of helping negotiate with the parties in the EU debt discussions. The US has been completely left out of discussions with Russia, Germany and France over Ukraine. We appear to be so focused on terrorism and ISIS, that we are not even paying much attention to the real crisis in the world. But my guess is that everybody knows who the real contenders are in this war of words, money and guns. The sanctions and drop in oil prices are hurting the Russian economy, and it’s all tied to the US dollar. So the dollar is the cause of the pain being suffered by Russia, and thus the US is the evil-doer according to Putin. But Vlad has always played the long game, and when the time comes, and NATO has been shown to be useless, then he’ll be better prepared to confront us directly. Remember – thanks to Bush & CheneyG.W. Bush and the Dick, America no longer has standing as the ‘good guys’ to come to anybody’s rescue. And the sad thing is – we know that to be true. Everybody’s on their own.

One last piece – the negotiations with Iran over their nuclearization. The Israelis are leaking information, designed to try to blow up any deal between us and Iran. Iran wants the sanctions lifted because their economy is suffering the same low-oil-price woe as Russia. In the next few months, there either will be a deal or there won’t. If there is, pro-Israel elements in the US – particularly amongst Republicans – will try to blow it up. So getting to a deal is frankly almost secondary in importance. It will never be implemented, and Iran will develop the bomb they’ve wanted for such a long time. Then the Saudis will have one from Pakistan about 30 seconds after Iran announces they’ve got it. And once again, America will be seen as weak and unable to effect meaningful, positive change in the world. Can you think of a better place for nuclear blastnuclear weapons to proliferate than the Middle East? Yeah…OK.

Lord help us when that day arrives. There will be a mad scramble for power, and I wouldn’t rule anything out – including an attack on the ‘homeland’ (God I hate that word) by a consortium of evil-doers, just spoiling to bring us down. Welcome to the world of war, America. What a waste – and what a shame that all this wasn’t stopped in its infancy because of pride, venality and just plain stupiditystupidity. Apparently those traits are everywhere these days.

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