So last Sunday, Hillary Clinton announced that she is running for the presidency. Nobody was surprised by that announcement. But frankly, I was. I thought she was smarter than that. Let me ‘splain.

This election is analogous to the Humphrey/Nixon race in ’68. Humphrey was Lyndon Johnson’s Vice President, and thus was saddled with dissatisfaction with the Viet Nam war. Nixon was – well, Nixon. So the analogy goes like this. As his Secretary of State, Hillary is tied to Obama, without his connections with minorities and young voters. Jeb Bush – who will be the Republican nominee – is the latest in the string of Bush men that like to run the country. But this Bush – like Nixon – has serious, serious control issues.

In ’68, Nixon barely won the popular vote, because of third party candidate George Wallace taking five states in the south. But Nixon won the electoral college handily, so that even had Humphrey taken the five Wallace states, it wouldn’t have been enough to overcome Nixon’s 301 electoral votes (remember, all you need is 270 to win). This time around, the situation will be similar. The key states this time will be Florida, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia. Before those five states are counted, Jeb will have 227 to Hillary’s 216. So let’s add the states in one by one and see what happens.

After Florida – Jeb’s home state, the tally is Jeb 256 and Hillary is still at 216. Add only North Carolina to go for Jeb, and he’s at 271. Enough to win. Hillary can take Virginia, Colorado and Ohio, and still come up short with a total of 256. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that it’s gonna be the Republicans this time around. It’s their time.

So why is Hillary still running? Because she’s a glutton for punishment? Because she is surrounded by people that tell her what she wants to hear, and tell her she can win this? Because she’s got the capacity to rationalize bad things happening and still soldier on? Yep, yep and … yep.

I really kind of feel sorry for her. She is about to be subjected to the most scurrilous, hateful and malicious campaign – much worse than what her husband endured, because George Sr. is a kinder, gentler Bush than old Jebbie. The boy Bush will throw everything at her to win. Which is kind of a shame – he could be a decent, upright guy and still win. But it’s his nature – just like his mama. Wait and watch. You’ll see. And you’ll say – hey, You were right. And I’ll say: duh.