Quick Update on the Numbers

Here’s a quick update on the numbers for the Republican nomination. So far, Trump has 680 delegates. Neither of the other two can do anything but slow him down, so who cares about their totals so far? Concentrate, people!

Trump has 680 so far. Working in conjunction with Nate Silver and his Five Thirty Eight blog, I calculate Trump is likely to get another 508 delegates. That will give him a total going into the July Republican convention of 1188, a full 49 delegates short of the outright nomination. That feels about right to me. Nate seems to think he’ll be only 29 short, but I like my number better. So it seems like standard wisdom now that there will be a brokered Republican convention in July in Cleveland. Gosh – I’m really shocked and surprised by that. No I’m not. You know I’m not since you know I predicted this outcome – how many months ago? Check previous posts – I was talking about this outcome in Pennsylvania at Christmas. Yes, I continue to be the Oracle – just ask me anything except the Power Ball numbers.

So what happens then? Will this be another Lincoln in 1860 or will the Republicans wimp out and jump like lemmings into the sea with their DtheT candidate? Okay, since I see myself as the Oracle, I’ll go ahead and predict the outcome.

There will be a billion eyes watching around the world as the first round of the delegate count begins in Cleveland. Everyone will be holding their breath as Trump falls short of the necessary 1237. There will be speeches, both for and against Cruz as the alternate candidate. There will be a second ballot, and the numbers will even out a bit – fewer for Trump, more for Cruz and less more for Kasich.

That’s when the real deals begin to be made. Will it be a third party? Will Trump do what he’s wanted to do all along – be bought off by the Republican establishment and take his marbles and go home? What happens to the millions of schlemiels that voted for him along the way? Here’s what happens.

There is a deal made in the back rooms of the convention hall. Trump says he’s rethought the situation and realizes he would be letting down the country by continuing when it’s obvious that there is a conspiracy on the part of the Democrats to steal the race. Details of the conspiracy will follow, based on information he gleaned from his ‘sources’, all of which he will have made up. As a consequence, he will give all his delegates to….drum roll, please! It surely won’t be Ted Cruz – everyone hates him. It won’t be John Kasich because he really is a loser. In fact, it won’t be any of the candidates that have pursued the nomination thus far. It won’t be Mitt Romney – another loser. Who will it be? Why, it’ll be little Paul Ryan, the current Speaker of the House. He will cast those big eyes down, and say he’s only doing this for the country and for the party. And he will get all Trumps and Kasich’s delegates and he will win the nomination. And he will win the presidency over Hillary. Funny how things turn out, huh? And after the smoke clears and Ryan nominates a right wing Supreme Court justice who will be swiftly approved by the Republican dominated Senate, Trump will tally up how much value his brand accrued with this exercise in American democracy. It’s in the billions – no, let’s let Trump be Trump. He will say publicly that it was worth a cool trillion dollars to the Trump name for him to have pursued this ersatz campaign. And those schlemiels? They’ll say they knew all the time he was just pretending. And as long as a Republican wins, who cares? After all, Republicans take care of us the best.