Yesterday, Paul Ryan said count him out as the Republican presidential nominee. I believe he will stick to his guns. Apparently bettors do as well, since his name has left the Predictwise building. So if not Paul, then who? And why won’t he take the mantle upon himself? Got some ideas.

First question: if not Paul, then who would be the nominee? I don’t think anybody knows that at the moment, as the final tally of delegates hasn’t appeared. But if all the indicators are correct, the two key states with a bunch of delegates are California (172) and Pennsylvania (71). California awards the bulk of its delegate by congressional district results; Pennsylvania keeps 80% of its delegates uncommitted. So DtheT has to take virtually every congressional district in New York to have a shot at amassing the 1237 he needs for a first ballot win. He’d have to get the bulk of California districts as well, and allegedly his organization is in disarray and unprepared to mount the disciplined campaign needed to take California. Or does it require discipline? I’d argue California Republicans would prefer Trump over Cruz, and Kasich might as well stay home. There you have it – Trump will get close enough to 1237 to go into the convention with a strong case for the nomination, if not the full 1237. Ryan saying, “Don’t count on me” nearly guarantees that outcome.

But the bigger issue is this: how come Paul Ryan won’t come to the rescue of the party? After all, the next generation of Supreme Court decisions needs for the Republicans to win. Is he being parochial – looking out for his own political interests? If he were, he’d not have taken the Speaker’s chair. No – I think he realizes they’re going to lose, and is trying to preserve the Republican majority in the House in case the Senate goes down with the higher ticket. That is a much higher likelihood than first seemed to be the case. It only takes 4 Senate seats to flip if Hillary wins. And Ryan is betting that Hillary wins and the Republicans lose the Senate. He’s the little

Dutch boy with his finger in the dike. Yoiks!

So which states are the 4 most likely to flip?

Wisconsin
Ohio
Florida
?

Wisconsin. Watch for Russ Feingold to come back. Ohio – Rob Portman is behind in the polls and the Democrat Ted Strickland was narrowly defeated in the 2010 gubernatorial race by John Kasich. Florida will see a very popular young Democrat, Patrick Murphy, against a more liberal Democrat accused of ethics violations, Alan Grayson.

The fourth one to flip is anybody’s guess, and there are actually a couple of vulnerable Democrats: Harry Reid of Nevada (who is retiring) and Michael Bennet from Colorado. But with the Republicans in disarray, I’d argue those seats will remain Democrat.

So bottom line: Senate will likely – once again – be evenly divided, when you include a Democratic VP. Sigh. Another 4 years of gridlock.

Oh – one last thing – remember that group called the Supreme Court? When Hillary wins, the lame duck Congress will try to get Merrick Garland approved beween November and January. If you were a Democrat in the Senate, would you go along with that? I think not. Sorry…no I’m not. The Republicans have been hoisted on their own petard, and as I’ve said before: there isn’t a more deserving group to suffer.