Alright, that metaphor’s a bit of a stretch, but I’m trying to stick with the theme, here. What I’m really asking is: how’s this thing with Ukraine gonna turn out?

According to some egghead professor in Chicago, there’s five possibilities:

1. VTI gets his ass kicked, and withdraws. Hmm … sounds like a fairy tale to me.
2. VTI attacks Kyiv, throws Zelensky out (or kills him) and installs a puppet regime that he controls. Hmm … maybe.
3. VTI takes all of Ukraine, which is no longer Ukraine, but instead is southwest Russia. Hmm … That’s a big jump. Not sure about this one.
4. VTI takes all of Ukraine, and Moldova and Georgia and every piece of land that isn’t under the NATO umbrella. Hmm … that’s a REALLY big jump. Definitely not sure about that one.
5. VTI takes Ukraine, the little countries and then goes over the line and tries to get Poland, Lithuania, and the other NATO affiliates. Hmm … ironically, I think this might happen.

Uh, say what? OK, let’s say I’m writing this as a piece of historical fiction. I set the plot in eastern Europe, and invent characters like Trump, Zelensky and VTI. They proceed according to that which has already occurred. We’re at this point in the story. How would I write the next portion? Then, how would I write the ending? Because none of the five options listed above is the ending. Because if you look at them carefully, they’re just steps on a spectrum, from retreat to full scale war. That didn’t require a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago to figure out. That’s just common sense. So maybe all of them occur.

Uh, say what again? Yes. A strategic retreat with a half-assed promise to behave. That lasts about a month. VTI learns from his mistake – you know, like the scene in The Hunt for Red October when the rogue captain Ramius says the sub hunting him made a mistake, but he’ll learn from it. VTI will approach taking Ukraine differently next time. Oh, but wait! Nope. Start over – throw that page away. Why? Because the financial sanctions imposed by the world won’t allow him time for that option.

OK, moving on. Zelensky must definitely go. So would I kill him off? I don’t think so. He’s become so cute and popular, that his death would make him a martyr. No, he’s gotta just go into exile, say to West Germany. No! He gets taken as a “prisoner of war” back to Russia. You’ll see why in a minute. A puppet regime is installed, and everybody comes back from Poland or Romania or wherever and things settle down. For a while. That could happen. But the sanctions…what happens with them? Clearly they are a problem. OK – got it. VTI says to the world, release the sanctions or the kid gets it. That’s gangster talk for killing Zelensky – and his family – like the Tsar and his kids. Yep – that would work. Moving on,

Now the bad guys are the western world. Are you gonna let Zelensky the adoreable die? What about those cute kids? Oh, no! Can’t do that. But VTI can’t be trusted. What to do, what to do! OK, how about this: we try a “snatch and save” operation with SFs, but it fails and the SFs are killed. Now the west looks like Jimmy Carter after the botched attempt to rescue the Iranian hostages. Some negotiations take place, and sanctions are removed. Zelensky flies to West Germany with his family, and things calm down again. For a while.

Now VTI is a hero in Russia. He stood up against those western imperialists! Everyone goes back to doing business with Russia. The oligarchs are happy; The ruble recovers. If we’re looking at history as a guide, we’re at the point where Stalin and Hitler have made a pact. Putin has Belarus, but that’s like having France or Norway for Hitler. No, VTI needs something more vicious. He needs to make a pact with … wait for it … Poland. Now there’s an irony. Poland throws in their lot with VTI, so he won’t attack them and because he’s shown he’s the bad boy of the block. They are superficial enough to go for that.

So now in the game of Risk, Putin has a straight shot to Germany. Again, history goes in reverse. He takes a straight line across Belarus, Ukraine and Poland to go after West Germany. OK, stop. Nope. Another thrown away page. Note to self: there are 30 countries – yes, I said it: 30 countries that make up NATO. You attack one, you attack them all. There’s no way just having a pact with Poland gets him where he wants to be. So then what?

Somewhere in the process of Poland dropping out of NATO, a new group is formed with Russia, China, North Korea, the countries formerly known as Ukraine and Belarus, Iran, and surprise! Mexico and Cuba. It’s the plot of my story, Save the Children! A new cold war filled with failed attempts at nuclear strikes, cyberwarfare and ultimately the breakup of the world’s democracies. And so it begins. And ends. Wow, that is a very depressing scenario. We can only hope that thinking it and talking about it will make it NOT happen. We’ll see.