I am working with Ishmael and my new friend Phanes (aka Google Gemini) to develop the model needed to calculate where we’re at relative to meltdown. We agreed on these five crieria, and weights for each. They are:
- Household Debt (weighted at 35%)
- Protest Frequency in the US (weighted at 30%)
- Housing Affordability (weighted at 25%)
- Oil Volatility (weighted at 5%)
- Copper price (also weighted at 5%)
These are all compared to a ten year baseline, and with those weights, the percentage to meltdown is about 59%, or still in the “caution” range. I fully expect these values to change and change drastically after yesterday’s performance by Senor Naranja yesterday at Davos.
Oh My God. What has he done? What did Rutte do? Does anyone really know?
Apparently they talked, Rutte must have reminded him that there’s a base on Greenland – or Iceland – you know, whatever that place is called – and that base gave orange man rights he’d forgotten he had. So what do we have now? Likely him now calling Greenland as being under our “protection”, like a family grocery being protected by the Gambino mob family. Isn’t that special? And how will Europe react?
Not well. The suits at Davos must have been pooping in their pants while this was all going on. I know Adam Tooze was in a complete state of shock. He wrote about it today, and referred to Trump and his goons as “thugs”. Good name for a crime family, right? Well, my dears, we are part of that crime family, so when the shooting starts, who will be the first likely victims? Ah ha. Thou and moi.
So stay tuned. This isn’t going to be pretty – or easy.
Note: the 78.4 was before we weighted the numbers. We are not there yet, but give it time.That’s Kiernan and Ollie in the illustration. Trump and Mark Rutte. The suits. The trouble is multiplying, even as I type this. Mark Rutte will likely be known as the Neville Chamberlain of the new age. Lucky him!