ADVICE FOR THE PRESIDENT


On August 14th of this year, I provided five suggestions for the President upon his inevitable re-election. As I had a one in two chance of being correct, I chose the right face of the coin. As such, I can now say the chickens have come home to roost, so it’s time to revisit the advice, one item at a time. Here was the first and, in my opinion, the most important of the five:

1). Let’s start with the big one: drone attacks. Stop them. You crossed the line by authorizing the killing of American citizens without trial or any other semblance of due process. This is wrong, by any measure. In your acceptance speech after the election, please confirm that these attacks will stop. Period.

I read the transcript of his acceptance speech from Chicago last Wednesday morning, but nowhere did I see anything even remotely like what I requested. So thus far I’m 0 for 1. But I remain undaunted. I still believe what I said above is so. And other voices are joining in. Here’s one from Barbara Lochbihler, Chair of the Subcommittee on Human Rights of the European Parliament. She is founder of the German Human Rights Institute in Berlin.

Here’s a link to an op-ed piece from a lady who – of course – agrees with me…

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-s-legally-questionable-drone-campaign-by-barbara-lochbihler

If you don’t care to read the whole thing, let me give you an excerpt from what she said:

every drone strike will not only undermine human rights and international humanitarian law, but will also further widen a legal loophole that other governments and armed groups will not hesitate to exploit.

And there’s the rub, as Shakespeare’s Hamlet pointed out to us a few centuries ago. Or in saucier language, what’s good for the goose is gonna be good for the Iranians, or Talib or angry Australian peaceniks.

How could we criticize the Assad regime for targeting civilians when we do the same thing with drones? The Air Force is now training more recruits to operate drones than to fly planes – a major step in this sanitized version of warfare?

The biggest challenge is this: are we foolish enough to believe that this relatively simple technology can’t be used against us? If we fear Al Qaeda getting a dirty bomb, it’s certainly easier to see how they could gain access to a drone and use it to kill innocent civilians (as we reportedly have been doing in Pakistan.)


So the next time you’re in your back yard, maybe enjoying a friendly barbecue or a children’s birthday party, look up into the sky and listen for a buzzing noise like a mosquito. And think about what it would be like to constantly have to live in fear of what falls from that buzzing noise.

ALMOST A WEEK

OK, it’s been nearly a week since the election, and I know you all are waiting with baited breath for my detailed analysis of the results. Since everybody else and their cousin – on both sides – are indulging in that nonsense, thus far I have refrained.

Having said that, and having commented in the previous post that it’s better to look forward than analyze the whys of yesterday, I will say this about that – and pay attention, because this is really important – somebody had to win.

There you have it. With the exception of 1800, 1876 and 2000, there’s always a winner. And we wouldn’t have it any other way, because it’s too stressful when there isn’t a winner. Am I right here?

Every four years we have an election and generally somebody wins. They go on to be a good, average or bad chief executive, but the bottom line is: we go on. So save the gnashing of teeth, vows to fire employees or quit your job if you live in a state that went for the “wrong guy”…big waste of time!

Now that I’m done with that exhaustive analysis, I want to talk about trolls. Trolls? Creatures that live under bridges and make you answer a question if you want to pass? Ah, no…people who disguise themselves as normal human beings and then go to websites and get folks all hysterical with outrageous, disgusting and often borderline insane rhetoric. Do you know about this?

I first heard about it from the little Slumdog Millionaire guy on The Newsroom. Since then, every time I look at comments on an other-wise intelligent site like The Atlantic or The New Republic, there they are! After a little practice, you recognize them. Here’s some tips:

They almost always post a picture to accompany a fake name – like a young, white girl with an inocuous sounding name who spews racist comments like there’s no tomorrow. Or a sweet young white couple in an innocent embrace, doing the whole conspiracy theory thing (regardless of the topic at hand). That always brings out the responders, first saying “what has that to do with the topic”? Then telling the troll how awful they are. Quite predictable…

So the next time you’re tempted to push that “Send a Comment” button and scream at someone you think is racist, sexist, crazy or otherwise repugnant, ask yourself the question: is this likely a troll? Did I just get spoofed or punk’d or whatever kids call it? I also recommend you consider any statement coming from the mouth of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, or Ann Coulter in exactly the same context. If only the national media would do the same … maybe they would just go away…OK had to indulge a little bit!

THE MORNING AFTER

It’s 11:24 AM on Wednesday, November 7th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 323 points, or 2.44%. The headline banner for the on-line Marketwatch: “Street gets slammed…Dow below 13K as fiscal-cliff fear spikes.” Gosh – why didn’t I predict that? Oh – I did! Refer to prognostications in day before the election post…

I guess you get to a certain point in life and it all just gets too obvious…but not being one to get stuck in dwelling on the here and now negative, this is where we go from here!

Y’all have to trust me that we’re going to have a rather bumpy ride from 11/7 to 12/31. We will continue to have a serious decline in market fundamentals and there will be a fair amount of – as we used to say in Georgia – “jaw-jackin'” about it all, but one must make hay while it’s raining cats & dogs.

Now is the time to take that cash you accumulated over the past six months (you did accumulate cash, didn’t you?) and start looking for value securities to invest in. I’m talking the stock market, dear, not the bond market. The bond market is beyond my comprehension, as it seems so counterintuitive.

If you’ve really got guts, start doing options…I myself am fairly ignorant on this ground, so I will spend the next month or so looking for assistance in using what I believe are called “covered calls” and “puts” to learn about options and try to make some money out of all this uncertainty. Otherwise, stick to your knitting, and just look for good stocks whose prices are depressed because of all this brouhaha…love that word!

Interest rates aren’t going anywhere, so there’s no issue there…no inflation, no looming disasters other than New York and New Jersey being punished by the weather Gods…so fasten your seat belt, and ride it out!

BLOGGING ELECTION NIGHT

It’s 10 til 7 and the polls will begin to close in ten minutes. The pundits are doing the yackety yak…razor thin … photo finish … neck & neck…cliff hanger … then there’s little Nate Silver, who gives Mittens a 9% likelihood of winning the election. Why? Because it ain’t the popular vote that counts…it’s the electoral college…

Five ’til and we’re tuned to CNN, versus the networks with their emphasis on the local and the other cable networks with their clear biases…minimize the histrionics and maximize the information quickly and efficiently…

Candy Crowley is in Boston with Mittens, in spite of the comments at the debate on Candy’s part. OK, John King, be quiet and let’s start looking at results, as it’s 7 PM.

Vermont for Obama! Kentucky for Mittens-no surprise..

Let’s compare numbers with Nate’s numbers…supposedly Virginia exit polls have it a tie – Nate says 79% likelihood of Obama win..we’ll see..

More blah blah…let’s get some results at 7 after 7..

Obama ahead in Florida so far 55/45 at 4%…Indiana will go to Mittens

Nelson/Mack with 4% in it’s 60/40…no surprise with that…

Indiana Senate tied with 6% of the vote…come on Joe Donnelly…

Carville speaketh…dealing with the numbers where the R guy is the baloney stuffer…

Give us data! Eighteen after..need data..

50/50 in Florida with 5% of the vote…

Indiana for Mittens — again, no surprise..

Donnelly pulls ahead of Mourdock..

W. Va for Mittens-no surprise

Exit polls tied in N.C where Mittens gotta win

Barry exit polls winner in Ohio..

Analyzing Virginia still don’t know what Fairfax County is doing…

Romney S. Carolina – Mittens-no surprise

Florida 28% of vote – Obama ahead 51/48

Now its 51/49 Romney in FL

Now bama ahead in Fl – oh good grief!

With 1% in Ohio Obama 54/45..

41% in Florida still 51/48 for Obama

So far all states are as projected 64 electoral votes for Obama and 40 for Mitts

Pa exit polls 57 for Obama 43 for Mitts

42% FL 51/49

Ohio 62% for Obama

59/40 in Ohio with 9% of the vote in

Romney ahead in Fl 51/49 with 50% of the vote in

Mitty takes Ga – no surprise

It’s 8:25 and there has been no real trend that deviates from the polling and projections from the 538 blog…in other words, no surprises yet…

CNN called Nelson to win the Florida Senate race…no surprise

Ark & Tenn-no surprise..Mitty

5 to 9 and Ob is still slightly ahead in Fl – but people are still in line to vote in Miami. Geez..we are so lame…

Where are we in Ohio? Va? Fl? Sloppy work on the part of Supervisors of Elections..

To reiterate – there have been no differences between the polling and the results thus far…Va is looking the shakiest of the states that were slated to go to O but there’s more votes to tally..

Ob still comfortably ahead in Ohio and a comfortable lead in PA..even in Colorado…

It’s 10:46 and it’s clear that it’s all over for Mittens…Fla will go for O, and he’s ahead in Ohio. Claire McCaskill won. Joe Donnelly won.

Bottom line: new winners and losers.

New winners?

Numbers versus talk…Nate Silver will have rock star status after this.

New losers?

Talking heads
Tealiban

When will CNN call it? That’s the last question…

Answer: 11:18 PM…


Soothsayer Position Available?


It’s the Saturday before Election Day on Tuesday. Granddaughter Emily’s school will close that day, as they fear violence, due to the close nature of the race. Oh puhleaz…

There has been an ongoing ‘debate’ (polite word) about the outcome for about 10 days now. Poor little Nate Silver, the statistician (NOT pollster) who blogs for the NY Times about the national elections has been on the hot seat with pundits whose living depends on it being a ‘tossup’.

Nate has indicated all along this is no toss up. Barack Obama’s odds of winning have exceeded Mitt Romney’s the entire time. Sometimes the odds heavily favored Obama – sometimes the odds were close…but they always favored Obama. So what’s left to say?

Yet every media outlet in the country is shouting that it’s a toss-up, “photo-finish” (implying the two candidates are horses, running down the track with their necks straining to cross the line first)…Yeah…

So, here are the Great Olsini’s lucky seven predictions for next week and beyond:

1. Barack Obama will win a second term as President of the United States. After he wins Ohio, the race will be called for him by Wolf Blitzer of CNN shortly after 10:30 PM, but only to allow time for the polls in California to close.

2. Claire McCaskill will be re-elected for a second term as a Senator from Missouri. Todd Akin will not run again.

3. Joe Donnelly will be elected a Senator from Indiana. Richard Mourdock will be divorced by his wife and will spend eternity bitterly try to explain what he REALLY meant about that ‘children of rape are a gift from God’ thing…

4. The House will remain in the hands of the Republicans, however the Tealiban will no longer hold sway over the Republicans in the House. Those fellows will recognize their vulnerability in 2014 unless some things change in Washington, and they really do want to elect Jeb Bush in 2016. Say goodbye to terror in the House…

5. The negotiating power will now be in the hands of the Democrats. I predict this fact will be lost on the Republicans, and Obama will play Brer Rabbit…oh please let’s not go over that fiscal cliff…oh please…oh, we went over that fiscal cliff. Now what? Maybe we really do need those tax increases for the wealthy…the clock is ticking big time on those defense cuts…let’s see what we can do together…

6. As we approach the deadline for the fiscal cliff and pass it, there will be a major correction in the stock market. This is inevitable as most commenters are suggesting that you sell your winning investments prior to the end of the year so you don’t have to pay a higher tax rate on capital gains. So my end of the year prediction for the Dow Jones Industrial Average? It’s currently at about 13,120. I predict the Dow will be at 11,000 at midnight on December 31st.

7. And I saved the best for last. I predict Emily and I will win the “Why Investing Is Important to Me” video contest sponsored by the Motley Fool next year. We’ll be prepared with a much better explanation of dividends next fall…

Here Comes a Rant

Today I’m going to violate my own rule about “No Rants”. Sorry; can’t help it.

I watched Meet the Press this morning, something I rarely do because I really dislike people interrupting one another to scream out pat phrases and platitudes that I find offensive. But, since it’s so close to the election, and a couple of weeks ago it was civil (because Tom Brokaw was there), I tuned in.

The discussion was, for the most part, civil. Rachel Maddow was there, and she seldom screams or shouts. There was Chuck Todd, and there was Carly Fiorina. Remember Carly? Used to be the CEO of HP? David Gregory, the host, asked the group about Richard Mourdock, the State Treasurer of Indiana running for the Senate against Joe Donnelly, currently an Indiana Congressman. In the last few days, there’s been some amount of discussion about Mr. Mourdock’s comments regarding pregnancy through rape. That it be God’s will… Yes, Virginia, they’re at it again. Todd Akin, Joe Walsh (not the former Eagles member, a Congressman) and now Richard Mourdock. All Tealiban, and all in desperate need to control some woman, somewhere. But that’s not my point.

Carly Fiorina, woman, former CEO of HP, and token defender of positions that cannot and should not be defended by any female of the species, defended Richard Mourdock. She said, what he said was dumb, but he apologized. He apologized. He’s sorry he believes what he believes, but he believes it and there you have it.
Because, point of fact, he did not apologize. What he said was, he was sorry if anybody misunderstood what he said. But he believes what he said is true.
So that means he believes if his daughter was raped and got pregnant, she would be obliged to carry the child to term because it’s a gift from God. But I went to his website, and it doesn’t indicate whether he has any children. Just says his wife’s name is Marilyn. Wikipedia also indicates no kids. Kinda makes sense – have to have sex to have kids.

SHAME ON YOU, CARLY FIORINA. You have made it clear that you will do most anything to be accepted by the Republican club. Yew.. You ran for the Senate in California against Barbara Boxer in 2010. You still owe about a half million dollars to your own workers, and you lost by 10 points. In California…had you looked at a political map before you wasted all that money?

I guess my disappointment is always more manifest when it’s a woman who deserts – no turns on – her own gender. But somewhere, somehow, there is a God (not Richard Mourdock’s God) that will put things to right for Carly. May she never have a good night’s sleep again for what she did. As she’s 58, sleeplessness is soon likely gonna be a reality for her anyway.

The Election

So I’ve been going to two websites, like 4,000 times a day for the past two weeks. The two sites are www.intrade.com and the New York Times Election Forecast page written by Nate Silver. Watching these two sites 4,000 times a day is making me nervous. Every tic up or down brings on euphoria or generates another gloom & doom blog piece. All this was true until I stumbled upon the following two graphics, thanks to an Intrade contributor.

Click on each graph to enlarge.

Somehow the correlation between the two graphics made me feel more confident that Obama will win this thing. The first is the Intrade betting results for the Bush/Kerry race in 2004. The second – with an offset in the time frame – is the recount of the current Intrade daily results for the Obama/Romney race. If you compare the two – even on a macro basis – you will see a fairly clear correlation. Only you have to switch the parties, because Obama is the incumbent. Obama will win, because – as I said before – he will win the state of Ohio, which made all the difference for George W. Bush in 2004. Obama’s the incumbent that all the pundits said could not win re-election because of the economy. Bush was the incumbent that all the pundits said could not be re-elected because of the Iraq War. So what happened? Bush was re-elected to preside over the greatest economic disaster in 80 years. So fast-forward to 2012: Obama has 4 years of little progress in fixing the economy, we’re still in Afghanistan after 12 years of losing because of Bush’s need to transfer troop strength to Iraq, and nobody feels good about anything. Mittens, the other candidate, is very Kerry-like in giving you the feeling that – if he were to somehow win – he’d lose control probably within the first 90 days, and that his response would be to offer nothing but excuses. Just like Kerry – who will probably be our next Secretary of State. Is this the best we can do? Unfortunately, at this point in our evolution, it is the best we can do. We haven’t sufficiently suffered to have anything better. But I’d say we’re getting close to that point, don’t you think?

Video Redux

Remember the Video Emily and I made about investing? We submitted it to The Motley Fool’s investing contest. Didn’t hear anything for about a month. Then I got an e-mail saying we didn’t win.

I was on the Fool website the other day, and they’d posted the winner’s name and video. It was pretty good, I must say. But then, reading down, they indicated we took second place! Undeterred, if they run the contest again next year, we’ll be there, doing a better video and still investing.

Here’s a link to our video, in case you forgot it!

Smoke ‘Em If You Got ‘Em

Well, here we are on the 15th of October. Detroit has beaten the Yankees two games to zip, and Derek Jeter is out with a broken ankle. If the Oakland A’s couldn’t win the American League Division Series, then I guess we should give the nod to the team that bested them. The combination of Miguel Cabrera (he who must be feared and therefore avoided by all pitchers, particularly Yankee pitchers!) and Prince Fielder was too much for the Yanks. So they’ll take a day off and go at it in Detroit Tuesday night.

But that’s not what I wanted to write about today. Sister Sharon says my posts are too long and tedious (well, that’s feedback!) so I’ll lighten up and talk about other things of interest. Like the holidays coming up! We’ve been discussing table settings and menus, as Robin and Kyle are in charge of the menu and I want to be ready with all the right equipment for those two gourmands.

So I bought a smoker! An electric Brinkmann that can smoke up to 50 pounds of meat at a time (can you imagine?) Never used a smoker before, so anybody out there reading this, please pass on any tips and/or advice. It should be an adventure…since I have Amazon Prime, the ‘thing’ will arrive tomorrow and I’ll be giving it a test run. Again, any suggestions on where a novice smoker should start? I know – not Kools! Lol…

Here’s a picture of the beast – all hail the red Brinkmann smoker!

Later…

WHAT IF?

The presidential race is, as it always was going to be, boiling down to Ohio. Just as in 2004 with George Bush and John Kerry, the incumbent’s hopes rest on the blue collar workers in the small counties surrounding cities like Columbus and Cincinnati. As such, let’s develop two different scenarios – i.e., play the What if? game.

What if the scenario plays out that those little counties’ voters resist those faux ads about the deficit, Home Depot’s hypocritical chairman (more about him in a minute) and the Libya fake accusations to give their support to Obama? He will squeak by with a fractional point in the popular vote and have just barely enough electoral votes to get 4 more years.

But just as with George W. Bush, it will be clear – despite his crowing to the contrary – that this country continues to escalate toward deeper divisions. In spite of the Democrats retaining control of the Senate, there will be no progress in 4 years, the economy will continue to be Japan-like in perpetual shadow, and the Republicans will win overwhelmingly in 2016, likely with Jeb Bush as President.

However, the one thing we’ll be able to say in 2016 is that we extricated ourselves from two bottomless-pit wars in the Middle East, and the countries in that region still simmer but haven’t erupted into full scale war. Ehud Barak will be the next Prime Minister, and Bibi will – once again – be put out to pasture. Only Kim Young-Un, the chubby and hapless child leader of North Korea, will still be the only nuclear “threat”, and life will go on.

Now let’s look at the other What If? scenario. Those little counties around Columbus and Cincinnati fall for the Republican line about fiscal conservatism, saving Medicare by killing it for the next generation and such? Romney wins Ohio, Romney squeaks by with enough electoral votes, maybe with or without the popular vote. Then what plays out?

The least of our issues is that we will have a Republican President, a Republican House of Representatives full of tea party supporters that want to dismantle the country back to the 18th Century, and a Republican majority in the Senate because the Vice President votes in case of tie. What will come of that?

The Tea Party will be transcendent. There will be a significant amount of legislation coming out of the House and failed to be blocked in the Senate in the following areas:

Health Care – kill the Affordable Care Act and replace it with – nothing.

Abortion – ban all forms of abortion with no exceptions – this will get thru as a function of Catholic Democrats, and Romney will be faced with a crisis of the first magnitude – will he sign or veto? He’ll sign. Planned Parenthood and a dozen other entities will file suit, and after 3 years, the law will be found to be unconstitutional. Just in time for the next election.

The Fiscal Cliff – the economy will go into recession, which Romney will blame on the policies of his predecessor. There will be no more global trade, with sanctions ratcheted up beyond anything Smoot-Hawley enacted. This incites a breakdown in all communication between the U.S., China, Europe and Russia. We will emerge from a crippled four years, just in time for Romney to attempt another 4 years, and the Presidency will be won by a Democrat to be named. But that Democrat will inherit a very bad world indeed.

What about the Middle East? Bibi Netanyahu now has an ally in the White House. This will embolden him to force Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which everyone knows are deep underground and hardened to withstand just an attack. Ehud Barak will resign from the government, and emigrate to the U.S., knowing what is coming.

The result? Israel mounts an attack on Iran’s facilities. The attack fails. He calls upon Romney for boots on the ground support for an invasion of Iran. Romney’s rhetoric appears to support the request. The rest of the world condemns both countries. But Iran has friends in big places – like Russia and China. Russia and China – already alienated over trade issues – will come to Iran’s rescue. Israel will become the pariah of the world, politically and economically. I could even envision Kim Young-un being blamed for giving Iran the bomb, even tho’ it will later be shown it was Russia and/or China. The result? Potentially the demise of the small country of Israel. And all anybody will be able to say is – they brought it on themselves by going too far and being unwilling to compromise. We’ll see a repeat of the beginning of World War II, with Israel going first, then impacts to Japan and other countries in the Middle East like Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain. The difference will be this time it’s nuclear.

So what can you say about these two scenarios? The economy is toast for another 4 years, regardless. We will not be prepared for a total disruption in the flow of oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which will make the price of oil $300 a barrel. The petroleum industry will collapse, awaiting the expansion of facilities in Mexico, Canada and the US. The world economy will be in a depression that will make 1930 look attractive.

And who will be blamed? Israel, yes the little country of Israel. So the head of Home Depot with his commercial about us not needing another 4 years of Obama, who represents the Jewish lobby – will aid and abet in killing millions of Jews. Ironic, isn’t it?