I’ve been waiting to hear someone cogent talk about the Iran deal and what it really means – for all sides. But, alas, that has not been forthcoming, so I must ‘splain it to you, gentle readers. What’s it all about, Alfie? Why, just as with everything else in history, it’s about the money…the moola…kale…cash…you get the idea.

What? Not politics? Not nuclear arms race? Not: “we’re all doomed to die because the Iranians might get a bomb 15 years from now?” Oh, puhlease…No. It is about the Iranians making lemonade out of lemons. They are not stupid, Hassan Rohani and Ayatollah Khamanei. They haven’t survived in a very difficult arena for this long without being clever. And Rouhani was just what the doctor ordered, when Doctor Khamanei needed him.

Let’s go through this a step at a time. In order to understand it, you have to go back a few years, to the Ahmadinijad era. That’s the fellow who, for all the world, resembles a macaque monkey (see illustrations – see what I mean?) The Ayatollah made a deal with the revolutionary guard – the Quds force – you know, the group Donald the Trumpeter got confused with the Kurds? Maybe he thinks of Kurds with whey and Little Miss Muffet – ooh, but now I’ve seriously digressed. Back to the story, picked up with Monkey Man’s regime.

Way back when, Khamanei made a deal with the Quds force: I’ll give you your chosen guy as president – Monkey Man – in exchange for your support and protection through the difficult years of sanctions being imposed on Iran. Your man will give you all government contracts, and share oil revenue with you. I will get your undying amity. Sweet deal for all of them.

Now for a bit of history. Sanctions began in 1979 but really ratcheted up in the latter part of the first decade of the 21st century. The UN sanctions were imposed beginning in 2006, and Europe joined with the US in putting more of a squeeze on Iran up through 2012. The result was a free fall in the Iranian rial. At the end of 2011, the rial to US dollar rate was officially 11,100. After monkey man was elected to his second term – under a cloud of suspicion of electoral fraud – there were riots in the street. This instability – combined with monkey man’s tinkering with an economy he knew nothing about – the rial began to lose significant value. By the end of 2013, the street exchange rate was 30,000. It’s still hovering in that range. But here’s the thing – Iran was selling oil and getting dollars for it. So when monkey man would make outrageous statements – like denying the Holocaust or saying he was going to blow Israel off the map – he’d get more rials for his dollars. And who profited from all this? Why, his patrons, the Revolutionary Guards. Who suffered from this? Iranian citizens holding rials that were significantly decreasing in value on a daily basis. It was a sweet deal for a long time, but all good things must eventually end. By 2013, Inflation was out of hand in Iran, people were suffering, and folks on the street were seriously complaining about corruption, i.e. inflation making their spending value poorer as it made the Revolutionary Guards richer. A recipe for disaster, sooner or later. So the Ayatollah had to act.

In 2013 there was another election, and Monkey Man couldn’t run, being limited to two terms. He threw his support to a guy named Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei for president, but the Ayatollah had other ideas. Mashaei didn’t make it to the ballot, as Khamanei had another candidate in mind – Hassan Rouhani. And Rouhani won. What a surprise. Who is Hassan Rouhani? The guy who started nuclear negotiations with the EU and the US back in ’05. He registered for the election one month before it was held. And he won with 51% of the vote, compared to the next vote getter with about 18%. Some campaigning, eh? Yeah…So then what happened? All of a sudden, Iran is interested in negotiating away their nuclear program, which had been supported big time by Monkey Man’s regime. Why? Because the Revolutionary Guard had made their money, and were firmly established in owning most of the businesses in Iran. The sanctions were starting to worry them, and they saw no value whatsoever in going nuclear anymore. So Rouhani was the perfect guy to “negotiate” away what they didn’t want anyway. They all must have read the Uncle Remus stories and learned from Brer Rabbit about the briar patch. Smart fellows…and we fell for it hook, line and centrifuge. Now Iran will get their money back that’s been held in foreign banks since ’79. Sanctions will be lifted and life will be good for everybody. And what did they give up? Nothing of any real value.

In summary, I’d say it’s game, set and match for Iran in this deal. They will be free to grow their power and influence throughout the Middle East, with plenty of money to back things up. They will have a happy population that will let them stay in power for the foreseeable future. And what else have they got, gentle readers? Yes, you guessed it. I’d argue they likely already have a bomb..probably at the Parchin facility that nobody’s allowed to inspect.

But, you say, “What good is it if they can’t talk about it? And they certainly can’t without the risk of losing all credibility and seeing sanctions reimposed.”

All true. But the Ayatollah sleeps better at night, knowing if the US threatens any military action against Iran, he has that insurance in a silo a few kilometers outside Tehran. And who would they threaten with it? Why, not the U.S. – way too far away. They’d threaten Israel. And who opposes this nuclear deal? Why, Israel, of course. Why does Israel oppose it? Because they likely know or strongly suspect that Iran has a nuclear weapon. That’s why they haven’t hit them militarily like they did Assad’s al-Kibar facility in Syria back in ’07. So why doesn’t Israel just tell the world that Iran has a bomb? Knowing it and proving it are two different things. It wouldn’t be that hard for Iran to hide it. And I don’t think they have a lot of nuclear weapons – maybe just one or two. But here’s the main point: neither Israel nor Iran would survive a nuclear confrontation between themselves. They both know that. This is a really cold war between the two countries. They use us and Russia as proxies to fight their battles, pretending to threaten each other until we play “good cop/bad cop” and talk then down. But in the end, Israel doesn’t trust the U.S. to defend them if things get interesting and ugly. And they are probably right not to trust us. The folks in charge here at home like to give Israel lip service, but when things get tough, they will fold like a house of cards.

In 1862, Henry Adams said, “Some day science may have the existence of mankind in power, and the human race can commit suicide by blowing up the world.” How right he was. I tried to capture all this in my 3 Act play, “Fearful of the Sixth Extinction.” Check it out under the Writing Tab. And in the coming years, it’s just possible that I’ll be the one to be quoted someday. It could happen – really!