After the results of the Iowa caucuses were announced, and DtheT didn’t “run the table”, I started to think about the numbers. Yes, I know, I am always thinking about the numbers, but this time I wondered: could the rest of the primary season and delegate assignment be reduced to a spreadsheet, generated by an algorithm?

So on Tuesday I gave it a try. At first I put columns in the spreadsheet for criteria, like moderate vs conservative, age groupings, etc. Then I realized how difficult that would be to quantify. So instead, I took a cue from Nate Silver and his relatively simple method for predicting the outcomes of the 2012 elections.

But a bit of explaining is necessary to set the stage for my methodology. First – and most important – the Republican National Committee set a rule that all primaries between February 1st and March 14th had to distribute delegates proportionally. After that, states are free to distribute the way they want. Here’s the thing: between now and March 14th, almost half of the delegates will be assigned – to a field that still consists of at least 7 candidates. Remember who they are?

Donaldo the Trumpeter
Sir Ted the Dour Cruz
Little Marco Big Heels Rubio
Ben the Sleeper Carson
Jeb – can’t control his body language – Bush
John – the Ohioan – Kasich
Chris – the corpulent – Christie

Then there’s Carly Fiorina who I’d rather not discuss, but I’m pretty confident she’ll be out of the race soon.

So you’re divying up – quite unevently – 1113 delegates 7 ways, it’s clear nobody will have the edge before the pile-on begins. What’s the pile on, you ask? From March 15th to the last primary (South Dakota on June 7), 10 states have a ‘winner take all’ position. That amounts to a total of 537 delegates. However, the diversity of voters in those 12 states practically guarantees a distribution amongst at least the top 3 candidates. So where am I going with this? Ah, to the methodology.

I took the most recent New Hampshire polls and distributed the delegates according to those results. I did the same for South Carolina. Then I used the proportion from the Iowa caucuses – the only actual data so far – and distributed them to subsequent proportional distribution races according to their percentages. Adding up those results, here’s what I get on March 14th:

Donaldo the Trumpeter: 280
Sir Ted the Dour Cruz: 256
Little Marco Big Heels Rubio 219

And where’s everybody else? Pretty much in the two digit range. Ok, so far no surprises. But then there’s the Florida primary on March 15th. 99 delegates are at stake – a full third of what each of the main three have accumulated. But here’s the thing – what if favorite son, ex-governor and of course by my definition, Satan himself – wins Florida? He’ll go from 40 delegates to 139. Then there’s the Ohio primary, also on March 15th. What if favorite son, ex-governor and pretty nice guy John Kasich wins those 66 delegates? He’d go from 38 delegates to 104. It’s unlikely that either of them could catch up to the top 3. But where all this is going is:

A BROKERED CONVENTION!!

Dum, dum da dum dum da dum dum da dum… (that’s supposed to represent the music from Star Wars when it switches back to the death star)

There hasn’t been a brokered Republican convention since 1948. The pooh-bahs don’t like it because all that bickering and the necessity for a back room deal makes them look bad. But as things stand now, that is clearly where they’re heading. And Bush with his 139 delegates and Kasich with his 104? They could each have a significant influence on the outcome. And what would that look like? They both hate DtheT, and Ted the Dour for sure. But Bush has a special, smoldering, burning hatred now for Little Marco. Why? Because Jeb brought that boy up through the ranks and made him what he is today. And in return, Little M turned on satan and struck out on his own. So he tried to kill the boss – you think he won’t get fired for a thing like that? Oh, where’s Violet Neustead when you need her?

So there it is folks, a brokered convention with the two moderates in a position to make deals. How it will turn out is anybody’s guess. But I wouldn’t rule out the Bush machine quite yet. Things are going to get really interesting around here come the morning of March 16th. What fun!