January is always an interesting month. First – it’s my birth month, so Happy Birthday to me in 9 days. I’ll be 65, so hello Medicare! I bought the best insurance policy there is – a full supplement to Medicare. No copays, no hassle with paying for what Medicare doesn’t. So that’s all good.

Now let’s talk about the rest of the world. What’s the big news there? Well, let’s start with what’s happened to the price of a barrel of oil. Remember a few months ago when it was over $100 per? Now it officially went below $50 yesterday. Picture a 50% reduction in the price of the only commodity you have to sell. Who’s in that boat? Lots of folks, but I’ll name three: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia.

Not much point in talking about the Saudis today. IS is gunnin’ for them, so eventually that’ll be a hot topic. Venezuela will eventually have either a military coup and a right wing government, or eventually just elect a right wing government. They can’t seem to find middle ground. So that leaves the Russian bear. And our favorite guy to hate: Vlad the Impaler.

Vlad is having some difficulties these days. The drop in the price of oil has led to a significant drop in the value of the Russian ruble. In October, it was 35 rubles to the dollar. This morning, it takes 61 rubles to purchase a dollar. Obviously the reason is that the one export Russia possesses – oil – has decreased in value by half. This has put a very large hole in the Russian economy, pushing it into recession. Well, the Russians are a long-suffering people anyway. So what’s the big deal? The big deal is the rise of the oligarchs since Putin’s predecessor times 2, the drunk named Yeltsin.

Russia is now ruled by oligarchs who have a lot more to lose than the average Russian babushka. They own companies that have control of nearly every segment of the Russian economy. But if they’re not Gazprom, the Russian oil company, what’s the big deal? Debt. Lots of debt. And it’s debt denominated in dollars, not rubles. Oh – and one more thing – remember those sanctions, imposed by the EU and the US when Vlad got carried away and snatched Crimea? That means those debt-ridden oligarchs can’t roll over that debt, because sanctions forbid lending to them. They must rely on the Russian government to give them the money to pay the banks they owe money to. But the Russian government needs all its cash to buy rubles, shoring up the value of the currency. And they have to buy rubles with their foreign reserve dollars. At some point, they’re likely to run out. Seems like a very unhealthy situation for everybody in the icy empire, yes? You betcha. So this one’s a wait & watch. Could get interesting.

Then there’s the EU. Greece will have elections on January 25th, and the leading party is called Syriza. They’re neo-Commie and playing chicken with the EU poohbahs, threatening to leave the union if their onerous debt conditions aren’t eased. Who will blink first? We’ll have to wait & watch that one too.

Then there’s the Republicans taking over the government today. They will begrudgingly re-elect Boehner to be their speaker (who’d want that job anyway?) and then move on to try to put forth legislation to get the Keystone pipeline going and kill Obamacare. But it’s standard thinking that they won’t be able to do either. Then what? Internal squabbling, and trying to figure out who they will support to go after the presidency in ’16. Current front runner? As previously predicted by – yes, yours truly, Jeb Bush. Can he win? You betcha. Will Hillary run? I say nay. So what will happen? Ah – too soon to tell.

So the month of January, 2015, is officially dubbed ‘takeover month’. The Greeks will be taken over by Syriza, who will fight to leave the European Union. The Senate will be taken over by the Republicans, who will fight mostly with one another to decide who they want to be before the presidential primaries next year. And Russia will be taken over by fear of the west, whose sanctions combined with the huge drop in oil prices threaten the Putin regime. But I predict a change at the top won’t be in the offing. That would thrust the entire country into chaos. What will be more likely to occur is an attempt at rapproachement with the EU over Ukraine and Crimea. So the EU will be in a tough situation – battling their own members at the same time they’re trying to determine how to deal with their neighbors to the east. Should be really interesting.