At last the opinions have been published for the two key cases this Supreme Court Session. You know which two I’m talking about: Obamacare, otherwise known as King v Burwell, and nation-wide gay marriage, otherwise known as Obergefell v Hodges. As previously predicted with the former, the Supremes found for the government. And in a narrow victory with a tepid dissent from Roberts, the courts have now mandated same-sex marriage in all fifty states. To my thinking, that’s akin to Brown v Board of Education in what conservatives call judicial activism. Reasonable people call it doing the right thing. Guess it all depends on your perspective.

Justice Roberts wrote the opinion in King, which I expected would be written by Kennedy. Kennedy did write in Obergefell, and Roberts dissented, but purely on the basis of states rights, and with lots of conciliatory comments about the plaintiff’s case. The feds weighed in on the side of the plaintiffs in Obergefell, not surprising but not necessarily helpful. All I can say is: it’s about bloody damn time.

I started looking at cases involving gay rights back in the 90’s, and was surprised and amazed to find that homosexuals had no civil rights whatsoever. The rampant discrimination and physical abuse suffered by gays all these years is a national travesty not unlike slavery. I watched the movie Pride the other night, a British picture about gays in London supporting Welsh miners in their struggles against the conservative Thatcher epoch. It was an uplifting and heartfelt piece, well acted by the usual suspects (Bill Nighy, Imelda Staunton, Dominic West) as well as a few new faces. But my point in mentioning it is that even a dorky country like Britain dealt with the issue of gay rights 25 years ago. The U.S., having been ruled for by Republicans and politicized Democratic Presidents, has neglected to address the issue in that time frame. So I say again: it’s about bloody damn time. Better late than never? Nay, I say nay. Too much water over the dam to be so forgiving. I’d like to believe this is a beginning of a new era in freedom and life choice, but gentle reader, you and I both know better. Recent multiple events in South Carolina and the fact that Lousiana is still holding off on issuing marriage licenses to same sex couples says otherwise. It will continue to be a long, painful struggle to change hearts and minds. Look how long it took the south to integrate schools. Another shameful episode in our history, replete with shameful episodes. Makes you wonder how we can be called Land of the Free or – even worse – Home of the Brave. We are neither brave nor free. Many of us – in particular southern, disenfranchised, young white men, are caught up in fear and loathing, subsequently acting out with the most hateful and virulent violence imaginable. I’m not sanguine about our country’s prospects.

Now as to the opinion in King v Burwell, as I’ve written in previous posts. I expected the government to win. The only minor surprise was that Roberts wrote the opinion, and that it was a 6 to 3 majority instead of the usual 5/4. Maybe this will discourage other knuckleheads from continuing their fruitless effort to derail what will now become established law. The Roberts decision was quite ordinary in pursuing the line of thinking that is about giving the legislative branch every benefit of the doubt. He looked to the ‘whole cloth’ of the opinion to find that Congress would never have intended to deprive policyholders that qualified for subsidies in states that had federal versus state exchanges. As I mentioned previously, I doubt the Feds would have had to set up exchanges if those red state governors and legislatures hadn’t refused to do so. But it’s over, and the person who benefits the most from this decision? You know – the Jebber. He’s breathing a giant sigh of relief, notwithstanding his comment that:

“This fatally-flawed law imposes job-killing mandates, causes spending in Washington to skyrocket by $1.7 trillion, raises taxes by $1 trillion and drives up healthcare costs,” Bush said. “Instead of fixing our healthcare system, it made the problems worse.”

There’s no telling where he got that factoid, since I couldn’t find anything like it on the ‘net. But I did find another factoid: from 2001 to 2007 – the George W. Bush years – over $4 trillion was added to the federal deficit, primarily from tax cuts for wealthy individuals and the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. By those measures, Obama just isn’t trying hard enough to spend. But the Jebber will fix it all. Right?

So last Sunday, Hillary Clinton announced that she is running for the presidency. Nobody was surprised by that announcement. But frankly, I was. I thought she was smarter than that. Let me ‘splain.

This election is analogous to the Humphrey/Nixon race in ’68. Humphrey was Lyndon Johnson’s Vice President, and thus was saddled with dissatisfaction with the Viet Nam war. Nixon was – well, Nixon. So the analogy goes like this. As his Secretary of State, Hillary is tied to Obama, without his connections with minorities and young voters. Jeb Bush – who will be the Republican nominee – is the latest in the string of Bush men that like to run the country. But this Bush – like Nixon – has serious, serious control issues.

In ’68, Nixon barely won the popular vote, because of third party candidate George Wallace taking five states in the south. But Nixon won the electoral college handily, so that even had Humphrey taken the five Wallace states, it wouldn’t have been enough to overcome Nixon’s 301 electoral votes (remember, all you need is 270 to win). This time around, the situation will be similar. The key states this time will be Florida, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia. Before those five states are counted, Jeb will have 227 to Hillary’s 216. So let’s add the states in one by one and see what happens.

After Florida – Jeb’s home state, the tally is Jeb 256 and Hillary is still at 216. Add only North Carolina to go for Jeb, and he’s at 271. Enough to win. Hillary can take Virginia, Colorado and Ohio, and still come up short with a total of 256. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that it’s gonna be the Republicans this time around. It’s their time.

So why is Hillary still running? Because she’s a glutton for punishment? Because she is surrounded by people that tell her what she wants to hear, and tell her she can win this? Because she’s got the capacity to rationalize bad things happening and still soldier on? Yep, yep and … yep.

I really kind of feel sorry for her. She is about to be subjected to the most scurrilous, hateful and malicious campaign – much worse than what her husband endured, because George Sr. is a kinder, gentler Bush than old Jebbie. The boy Bush will throw everything at her to win. Which is kind of a shame – he could be a decent, upright guy and still win. But it’s his nature – just like his mama. Wait and watch. You’ll see. And you’ll say – hey, You were right. And I’ll say: duh.

Sunday night at 11, a most surprising program aired. John Oliver scored what can only be described as a coup of significant proportion by doing an interview with Edward Snowden. And it wasn’t the usual interview, where Little Eddie is either being bashed or adored. LE was bashed, humored, chastened, laughed at, laughed with, and embarrassed. Notice adored isn’t on that list. Nonetheless, I came away with a couple of observations I’d like to share.

First, and foremost: John Oliver has now taken Jon Stewart’s place as the one person that can have real impact on the current culture. He’s shown it before: remember “I am not a dingo”? If you missed it, go to HBO-GO and seek it out. Big impact on the FCC, of all institutions…but back to the point.

John’s weekly series on HBO called Last Week Tonight takes on issues that others either ignore or just gloss over with no real substance in the effort. John Oliver – who is a Brit, by the way – takes on American issues with the media, with government, and just plain sacred cows – and lambasts, skewers and drubs them. He is almost always a person I find myself agreeing with, and sometimes throwing kisses at through the TV screen when he’s really said or done something notable. But interviewing Little Eddie Snowden? Who’d a thunk it?

But here’s the main point I’d like to make: John Oliver has hit on a reality that had, frankly, eluded me. The best way to fight the NSA and their terrifying excess – is to make them look outrageously sad, pathetic and ridiculous – all at the same time. And how did John Oliver manage that? With “men & women on the street” interview snippets, and subsequent techno-geek explanations from LE. About what? About sending pictures of one’s privates through electronic means. Yes, beloved, the NSA is seeing your junk, if you’re electronically sharing them with others. Guess that’s maybe how the story about Weiner – the Congressman from NY with the most unfortunate name – got started. But my other observation is that yes, I was right a few centuries ago when I labeled LE a CNA – computer nerd archetype. But the boy has grown – and has the capacity to handle even tricky guys like Oliver with aplomb and good grace. Kudos to LE. I hope he gets to come home soon – and for a less-than-a-lifetime stay in a country club prison. Come on – they gotta give him some kind of punishment, right? Oh, wait – Petraeus got a slap on the wrist for doing the same thing, just on a much smaller scale. Oops – well, we’ll just have to wait and see how that turns out.

So from now on, boys and girls: no pix of junk or pubes. The NSA is watching, and if that upsets you, well at least that’s a good start. And that was Oliver’s point. And it may make a difference with you young folk out there who generally don’t give a flip about the government’s spying. And your caring about it might mobilize you to do something about NSA’s Constitution-violating spying. Remember – Erik’s and my generation’s protests stopped a war. Let’s see what you can do, kids.

I’ve got three questions. First: where is the line between real information and gossip on television news programs? Second: who is the audience that the networks appear to cater to? Third: how do we‘drag the line’ back to real stories and away from gossip?

Those are the questions I ask myself just about every time I’m forced to watch any level of network television news programming. My husband loves mid-day and afternoon, locally-produced broadcasts and the ABC Nightly News with David Muir. All of it, as he well knows, is garbage in my humble opinion. For every ounce of real information – presented in bit-sized pieces that really don’t tell you much of anything – you get six ounces of petty gossip, feel-good stories about small children or animals, and detailed stories about bad things happening to celebrities.

Which brings me to the second question – who is the audience that network shows aim to attract? A scan of online sources makes it clear: it’s for old people. You get a hint of this with the ads – they’re all for drug companies, and are marketing drugs that old people are likely to use. So if the audience is old people, it would seem to me that networks would put real news into their half hour broadcasts – right? At least in theory, old people would have a longer attention span than the young folk, right? Apparently not. According to the State of the Media website, as of 2012, there was only 19 minutes of content on the half hour news program. That means there’s 11 minutes of commercials. And of the 19 minutes of information-sharing, I’d estimate only about 40% of that could be considered anything close to news, versus fluff and petty gossip. So for an investment of 30 minutes of your time, you get about 10 minutes of substance. That’s really pathetic.

I force Erik to watch the first half of the PBS Newshour, which provides 25 minutes of real information and commentary on things that I believe are important to the country. Why only 25 minutes? Because he insists on switching over to ABC, for ‘news-lite’. I find the PBS information often leads to meaningful conversation between us, as opposed to the consistent-format fluff from ABC. So for the benefit of us older folks, why can’t the networks provide content more like public television news? One network is trying.

CBS made a change in 2013, both with its morning shows and evening news. They added Charlie Rose to the morning lineup, and Scott Pelley took over the nightly news.

The to pics are weightier on both programs, compared to the other two network offerings. And the result? CBS is in third place in both morning and evening broadcasts. What does that tell me? Old folks like the garbage they’re being fed. Sigh.

How do we drag the line back to more brain food and less fodder? There’s always on-line news from on-line print media like The New York Times, Politico, The Atlantic and The New Republic. And I’ll try to persuade Erik to at least switch to CBS for his morning and evening entertainment. It’s a step in the right direction…maybe. Or maybe CBS will realize they’re fighting a losing battle, and go the way of the others with fluff and nonsense. If so, can I cancel my cable subscription and be done with it? We’ll see.

Well, the Republicans have done it again, by golly. In today’s oral arguments before the Supreme Court, four plaintiffs sued the government. What do they want? For the court to say the subsidies to low-income insured in the 34 states controlled by Republicans are illegal. That will essentially deny insurance coverage to nearly 8 million people. Good work, right? Eight million very angry voters in red states? Hmm…maybe not.

The enthusiasm to kill Obamacare was hot and heavy in 2012, because it was an election year and because it was something Obama did. But now it’s 2015, and the healthcare program has been in place for over a year. A whole lot of people all of a sudden have insurance that didn’t have it before. Insurance they can afford. And that doesn’t have huge deductibles or copays. That’s a good thing, right? No, it’s a bad thing. Why is it bad? Because the Democrats put it in place.

Denying insurance coverage to needy people because of politics is a sin. But this time around, I think the Republicans are going to be hoisted on Fendall Hawkins petard. Who? What? Let me ‘splain.

In 1966, a great comedy hit the screen called The Russians Are Coming…The Russians are Coming. The character actor Paul Ford played a buffoon named Fendall Hawkins, who was determined to create a national incident out of a Russian submarine mistakenly getting stuck on a sand bar. Here’s Paul’s picture as Fendall. Needless to say, ole’ Fendall became a headache for everybody, including the town sheriff and – in the end – the townspeople. So what’s that got to do with today’s case?

Those four folks that sued from Virginia are right-wingers, whose legal fees were paid for by a conservative think tank, the Competitive Enterprise Institute. CEI bills itself as a ‘libertarian’ think tank, but its funders come from mainstream corporate America. The lawyers for CEI pored over all 900 pages of the legislation to find one word that they say will kill the whole statute. The word is by. Yes by. The language in the statute provides subsidies for folks in health care exchanges set up by the states. But in 2012, John Roberts, the Chief Justice of the Supremes, let the states off the hook to set up their exchanges. So instead, the feds set up the exchanges. Since the legislators that created the program could never have envisioned the outcome of the 2012 case, it’s logical to say that the language was to address the original game plan – subsequently declared unconstitutional. So now, will the Supremes find for the plaintiffs and gut the program? We’ll find out in June.

But here’s the interesting part. Let’s say they find for the plaintiffs. Almost eight million pissed off voters can’t be good for Republicans in those 34 red states. What can they do? Why, they can set up health care exchanges, and let those subsidies continue. That’s really sticking it to Obama, right? Sure. OK, let’s say the Supremes understand the impact on working class Americans, and find a way to uphold the statute. The Republicans look like the bullies that just got punched by the wimp’s older sister. Bad news for having started this whole mess, right? So as I said in the title: if they win, they lose; if they lose, they lose.

Going back to the film, Fendall called in the Air Force to attack the Russian sub after the Russian sailors – along with the men of the town – saved the deputy sheriff’s son from falling off the church steeple. The whole town was mad at Fendall, and helped the Russians escape by mobilizing all the boats in the harbor, and escorting the sub back out to sea. In this case, the four plaintiffs have called in the Air Force to sink the submarine called affordable health care for 8 million residents of red state America. Jeb Bush is probably praying every night the Supremes decide the plaintiffs didn’t have standing, and just dismiss the case on those grounds. That would be a blessing for everyone. Care to lay odds on this one, gentle readers?

Postscript: I just read a piece by Linda Greenhouse in the New York Times, written about a month ago about the case. Her writing led me to the list of briefs written for King v Burwell on the American Bar Association website. All the briefs for both sides are available from the site, including the Amicus briefs, i.e. written statements that support each side from other sources. Here’s the interesting point, one that surely comports with my comments above. Just about all the Amicus briefs for the plaintiffs are from conservative think tanks and other, right-leaning entities that live in the abstract, partisan world. The Amicus briefs for the government include a whole slew of health care providers, and even the attorneys-general of a coalition of states, including red states. Even the attorney general of Virginia filed on behalf of the government. So as I said above, nobody with any sense at all wants this case decided for the plaintiffs. The cost at this point is just too great – for everybody, including the health care providers to low-income families that will be hurt by it. But as I detailed above, the folks with the most to lose are Republicans. As such, I’ll lay odds the Supremes will find for the government. It’ll just be interesting to see how they do it. Any thoughts, y’all?

Mainstream American media – print and televised – has virtually ignored the crisis brewing in the world at this very moment. Oh, occasionally they report a tiny portion of the crisis; the situation in Ukraine or the progress being made in talks between the EU and Greece. Even the best of them – PBS Newshour – doesn’t connect the dots between these seemingly disparate events. But like the world in 1937, there are connections. And it appears it is up to me to explain them to the world. So here goes.

OK, the headlines say there’s progress being made in talks between Greece and the EU because Greece has asked for an extension. There was even commentary about Germany’s reaction to the request. But what the headline doesn’t say is that there’s every potential in the next 7 days for intransigent players to bring down the misbegotten experiment called the EU. Big deal, you say…so what does that mean to me and mine? Like many previous world-changing events, nothing really – in the beginning. But eventually there will be hell to pay for us all. Let’s explore why, by proceeding carefully through the minefield of current events.

First, since we started talking about Greece, let’s discuss that some more. Greece made a proposal to buy some time with a loan extension, and everybody connected breathed a sigh of relief that the can had been kicked down the road. But then Germany comes back and disses the proposal, direspecting the Greeks at a time when Syriza’s members are dismayed at even the extent of the current compromise offered by Alex Tsipras, the head of the party and now the head of national government. So there is every possibility that by next week, no agreement will be reached. Greece is now experiencing a currency drain that has effectively rendered the country bankrupt. Can you blame people for moving their money before the banks collapse? But where are these wealthy Greeks moving their money to? German banks. Think that won’t cause a big dust-up next week? Yeah, I’d say.

Spain has suffered right alongside Greece with austerity cuts. They have made systemic changes, and are in fact on the verge of emerging from these troubled times in better shape than they were when all they had was a housing bubble to sustain – or not – their economy. But politics is a fickle gal. The left wing Spanish party is called Podemos. Podemos in Spanish means “We can”. Gee – I wonder where that came from (Yes we can…remember that slogan?) Podemos is rising in popularity in Spain, likely a byproduct of the same austerity measures that has pushed Greek unemployment to 25%. The austerity demands of the EU in Spain reduced workers pay, which worked for a while but now that Greece is making waves, Spain is concerned that Podemos’ supporters will be looking to get those concessions back. More unrest in the ranks.

It was settled that the EU would finally implement Quantitative Easing – but now Germany has created a faction within the European Central Bank to oppose that as well. Not that that really matters – it’s too little, too late – as is obvious from the rest of this story I’m telling. As previously mentioned, the horse left the barn long ago.

So what’s the impact of all this? The impact is on that other big story featured in the headlines – Putin versus NATO. If you stop and think about it, the majority of those countries currently members of the EU are also members of NATO. If the EU breaks up, what happens to NATO? As previously discussed, I think NATO is already a paper tiger, one being regularly tested by Putin. There’s a piece in today’s NY Times that Russian bombers were ‘escorted’ out of British airspace by scrambled jets. Apparently this hasn’t happened since the end of the cold war. It would appear that Brother P is starting to test NATO in relatively unprovocative ways. But with the economic events coming to a head, it’s likely he’ll increase that provocation, and it will be closer to home. The so-called truce negotiated by Francois and Angela last week never took hold; the eastern Ukrainian rebels are winning more territory, and working on heading further west. This is a direct test of NATO, one clearly organized and supported by Russia.

So as the EU squabbles and then breaks up, Putin will be waiting to invite the old SSR’s back into the fold. They have, throughout history, been pawns in the games of larger states on either side of them – Germany and Russia. They generally side with whoever’s winning. And because of pride, venality and frankly just plain stupidity, right now the game winner is Vladimir Putin.

And what about us? The Treasury Secretary has been on the fringes of helping negotiate with the parties in the EU debt discussions. The US has been completely left out of discussions with Russia, Germany and France over Ukraine. We appear to be so focused on terrorism and ISIS, that we are not even paying much attention to the real crisis in the world. But my guess is that everybody knows who the real contenders are in this war of words, money and guns. The sanctions and drop in oil prices are hurting the Russian economy, and it’s all tied to the US dollar. So the dollar is the cause of the pain being suffered by Russia, and thus the US is the evil-doer according to Putin. But Vlad has always played the long game, and when the time comes, and NATO has been shown to be useless, then he’ll be better prepared to confront us directly. Remember – thanks to G.W. Bush and the Dick, America no longer has standing as the ‘good guys’ to come to anybody’s rescue. And the sad thing is – we know that to be true. Everybody’s on their own.

One last piece – the negotiations with Iran over their nuclearization. The Israelis are leaking information, designed to try to blow up any deal between us and Iran. Iran wants the sanctions lifted because their economy is suffering the same low-oil-price woe as Russia. In the next few months, there either will be a deal or there won’t. If there is, pro-Israel elements in the US – particularly amongst Republicans – will try to blow it up. So getting to a deal is frankly almost secondary in importance. It will never be implemented, and Iran will develop the bomb they’ve wanted for such a long time. Then the Saudis will have one from Pakistan about 30 seconds after Iran announces they’ve got it. And once again, America will be seen as weak and unable to effect meaningful, positive change in the world. Can you think of a better place for nuclear weapons to proliferate than the Middle East? Yeah…OK.

Lord help us when that day arrives. There will be a mad scramble for power, and I wouldn’t rule anything out – including an attack on the ‘homeland’ (God I hate that word) by a consortium of evil-doers, just spoiling to bring us down. Welcome to the world of war, America. What a waste – and what a shame that all this wasn’t stopped in its infancy because of pride, venality and just plain stupidity. Apparently those traits are everywhere these days.

By now you’ve likely heard that some tiny set of consultants that work for the Defense Department did an analysis of Putin – from television footage, no less. Their assessment is that poor little Vlad suffers from Asperger’s Syndrome. Of course, if you’re in the know, you are aware that it isn’t called that anymore. It’s just a place on the ‘autism spectrum’.

Now to my point – as I’ve said before, The Hunt for Red October is my second favorite film of all time. Terms of Endearment is my favorite, but again, I digress. Here’s the thing – there are some fantastic quotes from THFRO that I’ve used before in a video I made at the height of the hostilities in Iraq. But here’s another good one, and one that’s most appropriate for this post:

“The average Russki, son, don’t take a dump without a plan.”

Admiral Painter, talking to Jack Ryan

So if the average Russki has a plan for the simplest of functions, it implies that Putin has a plan. Angela Merkel, the gal he was counting on to help him out with his plans to re-establish the Soviet empire, indicated that Putin had lost touch with reality, and lives in ‘another world’. Well, that is likely true. He lives in a world of his own creation – one where he is the head of a large and powerful empire, feared and admired by all.

Yeah…no.

So which is worse – a power hungry, clever megalomaniac or a demented, lives in his own little autistic world hand-wringer? Neither option is good, and if I had to guess, I’d say autism was more likely the reality of his existence. Let me ‘splain.

Putin does live in the past, but the past wasn’t a great story for him. He has seen the world of the Soviet Union collapse (the worst day ever, according to him). And along with it, life collapsed for he and his family. So he worked his way up through a system that we frankly don’t really understand. And he succeeded – likely beyond his wildest dreams. But he’s still that little kid from Leningrad who had two older brothers who died twenty years before he was born, one during the siege of Leningrad in WW II. So his parents were in their forties when he was born, making the autism theory at least plausible. But if he is autistic, and if Asperger’s is the likely case, that syndrome is marked with fetish-like attention to detail, planning and routine. It’s also marked with a high degree of paranoia. And I maintain that’s what drives him.

So if you buy my description of him, then you can likely figure out what he intends to do. Carefully plan a way to retake the areas surrounding Russia, as a buffer to European incursion and a thumb in the eye of the west. Think about it from his point of view. The Nazis (Germans) killed his older brother and starved his mother. The west took their sweet time about coming to Russia’s rescue, preferring to invade Italy first and then retake France. The Soviets had to save themselves – and they did. Their first instinct was to take land and keep it, to protect themselves from further attack from the west. That succeeded for a long time, and only fell because of the collaboration of Europe and America. Right? Isn’t that what the cold war was? So from that perspective, he’s just putting things back the way they should be, and paying for it with fifteen years of oil revenue, carefully saved after paying off all Russia’s debts and building up its currency. Then what happened? Ukraine blew up, they started looking to collaborate with the west, and all Putin’s instincts likely told him to fight back. Start with Crimea, then take Ukraine. Then the border countries – anything to put land between the evil that is the Eurowest and Russia. That is what makes sense to me.

And what will the U.S. be doing while he’s trying to insulate himself from any possible incursion? We’ll likely be trying to work through the recalcitrant Europeans, rather than get our boots dirty in any skirmishes with the bear. We’re tired of war, and have no use for any kind of unilateral action. So what happens to NATO? It is shown to be the paper tiger it sort of always was. Better to find out sooner than later? Hard to say. But I’ll say this – NATO will be tested soon, and it will be found wanting. It’s gotten fat and lazy over these years with nothing really to do. And when it’s revealed to be useless, what will be there to stop Putin? Nothing. And nobody. So be prepared, Estonia, Latvia, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Putin is coming to a town near you, and it won’t be pretty. He’s got nearly a million men under arms, and I’m fairly confident he intends to use them. And in the not-too-distant future. Count on it. You heard it here first.

Syriza won over the weekend. They’re just two votes short of an outright majority in the Greek legislature, but that has not deterred them. They’ve formed an alliance with the right wing party called Independent Greeks to give them a majority. Picture a left wing and right wing party joining together. One of the few things they agree on is that austerity hasn’t worked, and Greece needs to renegotiate its agreements with the EU. At a minimum. And if the EU doesn’t agree – which they have said all along they would not – then Greece will likely vote to leave the EU and return to the drachma. Returning to the drachma means devaluing the currency and defaulting on their debts. Others have done it before and recovered. Some have been serial defaulters. Here we go again with the musical chairs!

On a slightly different front, the EU is currently engaging in QE, as we discussed in the last post. So QE, at the same time as a restive Greece rattles the German’s cage, must be really irritating the boys and girls from Deutschland. Oil price reductions won’t benefit Germany much, and in fact makes their push to solar and wind less cost-effective, compared to oil and gas prices. Germany is reeling, and ready to react. So everything is happening as predicted, and we’re just awaiting the spark. Oh – and combine this with the Swiss Central Bank unpegging the Swiss franc from the Euro. That effectively devalued that currency by 20% in one day. The EU is probably happy about that, in a way. Makes their exports cheaper. But those people that borrowed in Swiss francs now owe more than they did before – 20% more. Picture your mortgage payments increasing by 20%. Ouch.

In the meantime, back in the Middle East, things are getting really interesting between Congress here and Iran’s mullahs there. Congress is threatening additional sanctions if there’s no agreement by June. Iran’s mullahs – never happy with the idea of negotiating away their power base in the Middle East – are happy to see the talks collapse so they can go on spinning those centrifuges until uranium comes out. Then what? With the oil price drop hurting Iran as much as Russia, it’s hard to see that having an atomic weapon helps them very much. As we’ve discussed before, they can’t use it on their immediate enemies without killing themselves – to a large degree. So what’s the game here? When you’re a theocracy, you don’t have to make sense to anybody but the theocrat on the top. And it’s difficult to say what that old man wants. He’s tricky. On a slightly different front, John Boehner invited Bibi Netanyahu to speak to Congress in support of increasing sanctions against Iran. That’ll really cool things off, eh? Not only is it a slap at Obama, it’s a clear sign to the world that the U.S. government is woefully divided. Ouch x 2. So everything is happening as previously predicted, and we’re just awaiting the spark.

Then there’s Ukraine. Whatever peace accord existed before, it’s gone now. A bus was hit by a mortar (and regular arms fire, from the picture); men and materiél are flooding into eastern Ukraine from Russia and both sides are blaming each other. An unsettled, jingoistic Russia is a really dangerous place. The Russian finance minister went to Davos saying that Russia will never ‘give up Putin to the west’, meaning he will have support from the masses. Some pundits think the renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine is in reaction to Obama’s State of the Union speech, describing Russia’s economy as being ‘in tatters’. Maybe so, maybe not. But support from the masses is irrelevant in the oligarchy we call Russia – as it’s been throughout Russian history. This time, when the really rich guys get together, I predict that Putin will quietly be retired to his castle and someone else will take his place – someone interested in making peace with the west. But how long will that take, and how much damage will be done in the meantime? The finance minister says two years – I find it hard to believe they can last that long, with the price of oil at its current level of less than $50/barrel. And in the meantime, could Putin decide to push all his chips in the middle of the table, and attack a NATO country? Possibly. So everything is happening as recently predicted, and we’re just awaiting the spark.

Spark, spark, spark. Where will it ignite, and what will be the result? That is the question. This altogether feels like the 1930’s, leading up to WW II. So maybe these are the 2010’s, leading up to WW III. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised by that at all.

POSTSCRIPT: That last picture came from a Youtube video that says the Federal Reserve is to blame for all the disastrous wars and policy decisions made by America since the early 70’s. It is a classic case of connecting facts with faulty reasoning. I am confident that a world conflagration is in the offing if stupidity continues to be practiced in key parts of the world. But when it occurs, it certainly will not be as a function of anything Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke or Paul Volcker decided to do when they ran the Fed. That’s Tea Party thinking, and it’s wrong. So don’t believe any of their baloney. Why? Because I said so. And because it’s just stupid. If you want to blame anybody – or trace any dastardly behavior back to any one individual – good luck. It just don’t work that way now. As I’ve written before, we have a severe shortage of really bad guys these days. No Hitlers, Stalins or Kaiser Bills to hold up and hate. But a picture of Janet Yellen as target practice? Oh puhlease. Nope. As alluded to above, a third world war will start with a spark. Like Gavrilo Prinzip ignited to start WW I. Like Hitler ignited when he couldn’t be happy with just Austria, Czechoslovakia and the Sudetenland. He just had to have Poland too. Like the Gulf of Tonkin incident. Like the attack on Ft. Sumter. Like Lexington and Concord. Which spark will do it this time? Time will tell…time will tell.

Hell is truth seen too late

Thomas Hobbes
Leviathan

Let’s talk about things economic this morning. The European Union has finally figured out that they should have done Quantitative Easing about, oh 8 years ago. Now that the horse left the barn, traveled to the neighbor’s garden and ate all the daffodils, then went to the pond and drowned, they’re finally shutting the barn door. Figuratively speaking. Let me ‘splain.

The EU has been caught in what is usually called a “Japanese-style” deflation for the past 8 years. It’s called “Japanese-style” because the Japanese have been in deflation for 20+ years. OK, so is that so bad? Not if you’re old and retired. Because if things get cheaper over time, your social security goes a lot farther than if prices increase. But what if you’re young and looking for a job? Trying to earn enough to have a family? Cheap prices don’t help if you don’t have sufficient income to buy things. So deflation hurts the young. And let’s be frank: the world is at war with workers. If employers can get by with fewer workers, they will. If they can deprive people of benefits, they will. The worker today is truly an oppressed individual. Kind of like during the 1930’s.

Since the world’s demographics have been aging, it kind of makes sense that many countries would find a comfort zone in deflation. But it’s a dangerous thing. Growth is the key phrase here, and deflation means negative growth. Negative growth means unemployment or at the very least, underemployment for the younger generation. Unemployment for the younger generation has historically led to unrest. The most recent examples of this can be found in the Middle East, with the so-called Arab Spring. As previously discussed, the A.S. didn’t work out too well for those young folks. Nothing changed, and a lot of them died trying to send their elders a clear message about the perils of too many young people with nothing to do.

So now the EU is going to buy unlimited quantities of European bonds of all kinds, trying to inject money into a system that has had austerity as its byword for the past 8 years. Will it fix the problem? Likely not, according to Larry Summers, the really smart guy that coined the phrase secular stagnation. Will it hurt? Likely not, but what’s the point of doing it now? Because they never could agree on a tonic for their economic ills before. Now they are faced with increasing unrest and the potential for some nasty governments to get elected. Sunday will be Greece’s election, and the bookie money is on Syriza to win. Syriza is running on a platform of reneging on the debt to the EU. Maybe. Or maybe it’s just politics as usual, pandering to the mob until you get elected, and then finding the middle again. It is a dangerous game that adds fuel to the fire of revolution. And as we know from history, it just takes a spark and then all those simmering ills under the surface boil over and violence ensues. Gonna happen…sooner or later.

So what to do? Ah, that is the question. At this point, each country is just worried about its own. Larry is concerned the Federal Reserve in the U.S. will tighten too soon, posing a threat to the incipient recovery in America. Well, Larry, you’re probably right, but since Janet Yellen, the Chair of the Fed is a smart lady, she will likely try to stave off this notion about raising interest rates. Why is it a bad idea? Because raising interest rates means dollars will flood into the U.S. from other countries. Why? Because countries like Sweden and Switzerland have negative interest rates. Yes, negative. You put a dollar into your savings account, and when you take it out a year later, you get $0.90. Even an 11 year old could figure out that’s not a good idea. So money from overseas will flood into the U.S., strengthening the dollar even more. The dollar is already on an upward trajectory, because of the difficulties in Europe, and in particular Russia’s challenges with depressed oil prices. A stronger dollar hurts exports, because it takes more of the foreign currency to buy those American products. That portion of the U.S. economy, currently growing, will suffer. In other words, it will hurt economic growth. And right now, the U.S. is likely the only country in the world with positive growth. Even China, which often doesn’t share all their economic data, may be experiencing deflation. It’s a highly contagious disease – like the measles currently making the rounds in California.

Here’s what I think: it’s really too late to do much of anything. The world machine has to crank through all this, waiting for the spark that generates a broad conflict. And when that broad conflict occurs, what happens? Governments run deficits to manufacture arms, and economic growth benefits. Lots of people die, but hey: at least the economy gets back on its feet. Isn’t it a pity we aren’t smarter than this?

January is always an interesting month. First – it’s my birth month, so Happy Birthday to me in 9 days. I’ll be 65, so hello Medicare! I bought the best insurance policy there is – a full supplement to Medicare. No copays, no hassle with paying for what Medicare doesn’t. So that’s all good.

Now let’s talk about the rest of the world. What’s the big news there? Well, let’s start with what’s happened to the price of a barrel of oil. Remember a few months ago when it was over $100 per? Now it officially went below $50 yesterday. Picture a 50% reduction in the price of the only commodity you have to sell. Who’s in that boat? Lots of folks, but I’ll name three: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia.

Not much point in talking about the Saudis today. IS is gunnin’ for them, so eventually that’ll be a hot topic. Venezuela will eventually have either a military coup and a right wing government, or eventually just elect a right wing government. They can’t seem to find middle ground. So that leaves the Russian bear. And our favorite guy to hate: Vlad the Impaler.

Vlad is having some difficulties these days. The drop in the price of oil has led to a significant drop in the value of the Russian ruble. In October, it was 35 rubles to the dollar. This morning, it takes 61 rubles to purchase a dollar. Obviously the reason is that the one export Russia possesses – oil – has decreased in value by half. This has put a very large hole in the Russian economy, pushing it into recession. Well, the Russians are a long-suffering people anyway. So what’s the big deal? The big deal is the rise of the oligarchs since Putin’s predecessor times 2, the drunk named Yeltsin.

Russia is now ruled by oligarchs who have a lot more to lose than the average Russian babushka. They own companies that have control of nearly every segment of the Russian economy. But if they’re not Gazprom, the Russian oil company, what’s the big deal? Debt. Lots of debt. And it’s debt denominated in dollars, not rubles. Oh – and one more thing – remember those sanctions, imposed by the EU and the US when Vlad got carried away and snatched Crimea? That means those debt-ridden oligarchs can’t roll over that debt, because sanctions forbid lending to them. They must rely on the Russian government to give them the money to pay the banks they owe money to. But the Russian government needs all its cash to buy rubles, shoring up the value of the currency. And they have to buy rubles with their foreign reserve dollars. At some point, they’re likely to run out. Seems like a very unhealthy situation for everybody in the icy empire, yes? You betcha. So this one’s a wait & watch. Could get interesting.

Then there’s the EU. Greece will have elections on January 25th, and the leading party is called Syriza. They’re neo-Commie and playing chicken with the EU poohbahs, threatening to leave the union if their onerous debt conditions aren’t eased. Who will blink first? We’ll have to wait & watch that one too.

Then there’s the Republicans taking over the government today. They will begrudgingly re-elect Boehner to be their speaker (who’d want that job anyway?) and then move on to try to put forth legislation to get the Keystone pipeline going and kill Obamacare. But it’s standard thinking that they won’t be able to do either. Then what? Internal squabbling, and trying to figure out who they will support to go after the presidency in ’16. Current front runner? As previously predicted by – yes, yours truly, Jeb Bush. Can he win? You betcha. Will Hillary run? I say nay. So what will happen? Ah – too soon to tell.

So the month of January, 2015, is officially dubbed ‘takeover month’. The Greeks will be taken over by Syriza, who will fight to leave the European Union. The Senate will be taken over by the Republicans, who will fight mostly with one another to decide who they want to be before the presidential primaries next year. And Russia will be taken over by fear of the west, whose sanctions combined with the huge drop in oil prices threaten the Putin regime. But I predict a change at the top won’t be in the offing. That would thrust the entire country into chaos. What will be more likely to occur is an attempt at rapproachement with the EU over Ukraine and Crimea. So the EU will be in a tough situation – battling their own members at the same time they’re trying to determine how to deal with their neighbors to the east. Should be really interesting.