(The Zika mosquito)…

Well, let’s start with things economic. The stock market continues its slow, downward descent, caused mainly by investors’ correlation between the decrease in oil prices and the world economy. But is there causation or mere correlation? I’d argue there’s only correlation. Let’s discuss.

Start simple. Where are the five biggest oil producers? They are (in order from biggest down):

The U.S. (we passed Saudi Arabia in 2014 as the world’s largest, thanks to fracking)
Saudi Arabia
Russia
China (!)
Canada

Here is each country’s cost of production, measured in $/barrel, in order from lowest to highest:

Saudi Arabia $9.90
Russia $17.20
China $29.90
U.S. $36.20
Canada $41.00

Average: $26.84

So Saudi Arabia comes in nearly 3 times cheaper than the average. At current reserve estimates, they have about 90 years of oil left, given current export rates. So Saudi Arabia is betting that they can drive the competition out of business by flooding the market with oil. Seems like a logical step, eh?

But – yes, there’s always a but – They might get Canada, China and the U.S. to run the numbers and curtail production, but can Russia afford to do that, what with being under sanctions and having a ruble that loses value by the day? Half the government’s revenue comes from oil. It’s military budget has ramped up, with expenditures in Syria now adding up to $4 million a day for its bomb strikes against the regime’s opposition. But even at $30 a barrel, the Russians are still making money, although significantly less than when oil was selling at $100 a barrel. But how long can this go on? Every day there are ‘rumors’ of OPEC cuts. Do you see any middle east country other than Saudi Arabia in that list of the top 5? No. So if, say the UAE – the latest source of the rumor – cuts production, it just means more room for the others to increase their production. So the name of the game is market share. If there’s always more than enough to go around, one or two smaller producers can cut production, and it won’t change the market dynamics. I expect to see oil at or below $30 a barrel for years to come – as long as there are countries left that will fill the void. Enjoy the budget boost. But one should not assume the decrease in oil prices has anything to do with the shape of the world economy. It dun’t (with a nod to Ricky Ricardo).

Next topic: Syria. Despite the skepticism, there was an announcement yesterday of a proposed cease fire in Syria to allow for humanitarian aid to be delivered to the beleaguered city of Aleppo. Go to google maps and see what it looks like today, versus five years ago. OK – here are the pictures.

Aleppo in 2010:

Aleppo in 2010 was was a thriving city, concerned about such things are preservation of antiquities and urban planning. Syrians were happy to shop and welcome tourists to their city, without fear of bombs falling out of the sky from a variety of sources. But then came the so-called ‘civil war’, and Aleppo changed rather considerably.

Aleppo last week:

Glad you don’t live there? Aya. But here’s the thing – the neocon wing of the Republican party advocates for ramped up military intervention in Syria. Last November, all the major Republican candidates advocated for ground troops to be dispatched to Syria – and that’s what would happen to them…they’d be dispatched (look it up – it means killed). The Russians aren’t fighting ISIS – they’re fighting the so-called Free Syrian Army to get Assad his country back. So our role in this is … what? Let’s send troops to fight against whom? Gets real complicated real fast. In fact, Adam Garfinkle of The American Interest put forth a very interesting – and hopefully implausible – scenario for the Syrian conflict:

“What if, just to toss out one scenario, the Assad regime with the Russians look to actually win the civil war, and what if they are then willing, for their own reasons, to empower the Kurds for use as leverage against the Turks? What if, too, it were to be revealed that the Russians were secretly aiding and arming PKK cadres inside Turkey, perhaps through both PYD and Chechen intermediaries? Under such circumstances President Erdogan might believe that he has no choice but to order the Turkish military into Syria, to prevent both the fall of the north to the regime and the consolidation of PYD control adjacent to the Syrian-Turkish border. That could spark direct Turkish-Russian hostilities, and it’s hard to think of two leaders we would less like to see in a situation like that than Putin and Erdogan. That in turn could lead the Turks to invoke Article V of the NATO treaty. Then what? We would know that coming to the aid of the Turks under such circumstances could presage a U.S.-Russian fight, and if that occurred no one could glibly rule out escalation—either horizontal escalation that could activate a front in Europe, or vertical escalation, up to and including the use of nuclear weapons. No, the Syria crisis is not directly analogous to the pre-World War I situation in Europe. But even if it shares only a single thematic feature in common, it’s enough to give one pause.”

We’d better do more than pause. And that, gentle readers, is why we need to think twice about electing any of the current crop of Republican candidates. Be careful what you ask for – I know, I am repeating myself, but don’t you think something this important bears repeating? I’d say so.

After the results of the Iowa caucuses were announced, and DtheT didn’t “run the table”, I started to think about the numbers. Yes, I know, I am always thinking about the numbers, but this time I wondered: could the rest of the primary season and delegate assignment be reduced to a spreadsheet, generated by an algorithm?

So on Tuesday I gave it a try. At first I put columns in the spreadsheet for criteria, like moderate vs conservative, age groupings, etc. Then I realized how difficult that would be to quantify. So instead, I took a cue from Nate Silver and his relatively simple method for predicting the outcomes of the 2012 elections.

But a bit of explaining is necessary to set the stage for my methodology. First – and most important – the Republican National Committee set a rule that all primaries between February 1st and March 14th had to distribute delegates proportionally. After that, states are free to distribute the way they want. Here’s the thing: between now and March 14th, almost half of the delegates will be assigned – to a field that still consists of at least 7 candidates. Remember who they are?

Donaldo the Trumpeter
Sir Ted the Dour Cruz
Little Marco Big Heels Rubio
Ben the Sleeper Carson
Jeb – can’t control his body language – Bush
John – the Ohioan – Kasich
Chris – the corpulent – Christie

Then there’s Carly Fiorina who I’d rather not discuss, but I’m pretty confident she’ll be out of the race soon.

So you’re divying up – quite unevently – 1113 delegates 7 ways, it’s clear nobody will have the edge before the pile-on begins. What’s the pile on, you ask? From March 15th to the last primary (South Dakota on June 7), 10 states have a ‘winner take all’ position. That amounts to a total of 537 delegates. However, the diversity of voters in those 12 states practically guarantees a distribution amongst at least the top 3 candidates. So where am I going with this? Ah, to the methodology.

I took the most recent New Hampshire polls and distributed the delegates according to those results. I did the same for South Carolina. Then I used the proportion from the Iowa caucuses – the only actual data so far – and distributed them to subsequent proportional distribution races according to their percentages. Adding up those results, here’s what I get on March 14th:

Donaldo the Trumpeter: 280
Sir Ted the Dour Cruz: 256
Little Marco Big Heels Rubio 219

And where’s everybody else? Pretty much in the two digit range. Ok, so far no surprises. But then there’s the Florida primary on March 15th. 99 delegates are at stake – a full third of what each of the main three have accumulated. But here’s the thing – what if favorite son, ex-governor and of course by my definition, Satan himself – wins Florida? He’ll go from 40 delegates to 139. Then there’s the Ohio primary, also on March 15th. What if favorite son, ex-governor and pretty nice guy John Kasich wins those 66 delegates? He’d go from 38 delegates to 104. It’s unlikely that either of them could catch up to the top 3. But where all this is going is:

A BROKERED CONVENTION!!

Dum, dum da dum dum da dum dum da dum… (that’s supposed to represent the music from Star Wars when it switches back to the death star)

There hasn’t been a brokered Republican convention since 1948. The pooh-bahs don’t like it because all that bickering and the necessity for a back room deal makes them look bad. But as things stand now, that is clearly where they’re heading. And Bush with his 139 delegates and Kasich with his 104? They could each have a significant influence on the outcome. And what would that look like? They both hate DtheT, and Ted the Dour for sure. But Bush has a special, smoldering, burning hatred now for Little Marco. Why? Because Jeb brought that boy up through the ranks and made him what he is today. And in return, Little M turned on satan and struck out on his own. So he tried to kill the boss – you think he won’t get fired for a thing like that? Oh, where’s Violet Neustead when you need her?

So there it is folks, a brokered convention with the two moderates in a position to make deals. How it will turn out is anybody’s guess. But I wouldn’t rule out the Bush machine quite yet. Things are going to get really interesting around here come the morning of March 16th. What fun!

I woke up at 2:58 am this morning with the lyrics of this old song running through my head. It’s by Harry Chapin from his Album, Verities and Balderdash, which came out in about 1974. I know this is long, so those of you with ADD are just going to have to bear with me.

What Made America Famous

It was the town that made America famous
The churches full and the kids all gone to hell
Six traffic lights and seven cops and all the streets kept clean
The supermarket and the drug store and the bars all doing well

Now they were the folks that made America famous
Our local fire department stocked with short haired volunteers
And on Saturday night while America boozes the fire
Department showed dirty movies, the lawyer and the grocer
Seeing their dreams come to life on the movie screens
While the plumber hopes that he won’t be seen
As he tries to hide his fears and he wipes away his tears

But somethings burning somewhere
Does anybody care?

We were the kids that made America famous
The kind of kids that long since drove our parents to despair
We were lazy long hairs dropping out, lost confused, and coppin’ out
Convinced our futures were in doubt and trying not to care

We lived in the house that made America famous
It was a rundown slum, the shame of all our decent
Folks in town, we hippies and some welfare cases
Crowded families of coal black faces, cramped inside
Some cracked old boards, the best that we all could afford
But still too nice for the rich landlord to ever tear it down

And we could hear the sound of something burning somewhere
Is anybody there?

We all lived the life that made America famous
Our cops would make a point to shadow us around our town
And we love children put a Swastika on the bright red firehouse door
America, the beautiful, it makes a body proud

And then came the night that made America famous
Was it carelessness or someone’s sick idea of a joke
In the tinder box trap that we hippies lived in
Someone struck a spark at first I thought that I was dreaming
Then I saw the first flames gleaming and heard
The sound of children screamin’ comin’ through the smoke

And something’s burning somewhere
Does anybody care?

Oh, it was the fire that made America famous, the sirens wailed
And the firemen stumbled sleepy from their homes and the
Plumber yelled, Come on let’s go, but they saw what was burning
And said, Take it slow, let ’em sweat a little, they’ll never know
And besides, we just cleaned the chrome, said the plumber
Then I’m goin’ alone

Well he rolled on up in the fire truck and raised the
Ladder to the ledge where me and my girl and a couple of kids
Were clinging like bats to the edge, we staggered to salvation and
Collapsed on the street and I never thought that a fat man’s face
Would ever look so sweet

I shook his hand in the scene that made America famous
And a smile from the heart that made America great
We spent the rest of that night in the home of this man
We’d never known before; it’s funny when you get that close
It’s kinda hard to hate

I went to sleep with the hope that made America famous
I had the kind of a dream that maybe they’re still
Trying to teach in school of the America that made America famous
And of the people who just might understand that how together

Yes we can create a country better than the one
We have made of this land, we have a choice to make
Each man who dares to dream reaching out his hand
A prophet or just a crazy, damn dreamer of a fool
Yes a crazy fool

And something’s burning somewhere
Does anybody care? Is anybody there?
Is anybody there?

Harry was famous for his song Cats in the Cradle which has been terribly abused over the years for its sickly sweet sentiment about spending time with your kids before they grow up and don’t have time for you. It was on the same album, but this was the song that spoke the most to me. I actually used it as part of a presentation to a group of kids about five years younger than me in a college English class in 1977. They knew virtually nothing about the Vietnam era and what it was like for young men to be subject to the draft. It reminds me of young people today, who have virtually no memory of anything that doesn’t come from the internet. They I started thinking about Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

So here’s a portion of David Brooks’ column from The New York Times yesterday. He titled it Time for a Republican Conspiracy! Take your Adderall and keep that ADD at bay!
________________
The Tea Party, Ted Cruz’s natural vehicle, has 17 percent popular support, according to Gallup. The idea that most women, independents or mainstream order-craving suburbanites would back a guy who declares his admiration for Vladimir Putin is a mirage. The idea that the G.O.P. can march into the 21st century intentionally alienating every person of color is borderline insane.

Worse is the prospect that one of them might somehow win. Very few presidents are so terrible that they genuinely endanger their own nation, but Trump and Cruz would go there and beyond. Trump is a solipsistic branding genius whose “policies” have no contact with Planet Earth and who would be incapable of organizing a coalition, domestic or foreign.

Cruz would be as universally off-putting as he has been in all his workplaces. He’s always been good at tearing things down but incompetent when it comes to putting things together.
_________________

He goes on to recommend a grass roots uprising to support candidate C – any of the others that could be C, instead of the two truly dangerous A and B candidates. And he ends his column with a rather plaintive request of Republicans:

Please don’t go quietly and pathetically into the night.

I say: Don’t allow Donald Trump and Ted Cruz to “let us sweat a little” and get us to worrying about the polished chrome. I know – I previously wrote a piece that said there have been other presidents in the past worse than Donald Trump. And that is possibly true. And I’m sure firemen in Peshawar, Beijing and Tehran have saved people from burning buildings. But those countries are already ruined beyond salvation. Let’s not let America be ruined too by electing either of these “gentlemen”.

I think most people know exactly what New York values are: socially liberal, pro-gay marriage, pro-abortion, focused on money and the media,” he said.

That’s an anti-Semitic dog whistle if I ever heard it. And apparently, the writers from Saturday Night Live were the only ones that picked up on it. Whew – Bibi Netanyahu, how’d you like dem Republicans now?

Does this sound familiar? If you were a sentient being in 1962, it should sound familiar:

Friend, either you’re closing your eyes
To a situation you do not wish to acknowledge
Or you are unaware of the caliber of disaster
Indicated by the presence of a _____ in your community.

I left the key word blank. Know what it is? Here are your options:

1) Muslim immigrant
2) Tea Party Congressman
3) Planned Parenthood clinic
4) Member of Cliven Bundy’s family
5) None of the Above

Give up? If you tune in to Fox News, might that provide the answer? Nah. CNN? Uh, nope.

How about Turner Classic Movies? You’re getting there. OK – it’s a movie? Is it:

a) Dr. Strangelove?
b) Invasion of the Body Snatchers?
c) The Manchurian Candidate?
d) The Terminator?
e) None of the Above

Right you are – it’s the last one. And what is this terrible thing that will lead to gloom and doom?

Here it is folks: brace yourself:

Terrifying, right?

Here’s my point. Many of the candidates running for president in this year’s elections are using the same tactics that Professor Harold Hill employed in the 1962 film The Music Man. His goal was to frighten parents in River City Iowa into giving him money for instruments and uniforms for a boy’s band – to keep the young ones “moral after school” and out of the pool hall. Most of the Republican candidates are trying to frighten Americans into thinking that the pool table is Isis and they are coming to kill us all.

Your chances of dying at the hands of a terrorist? About one in twenty million. The likelihood that you’ll die when riding a bicycle? One in 141,000. So do the math: bicycles are 140 times more dangerous than Isis. So let’s recap:

Friend, either you’re closing your eyes
To a situation you do not wish to acknowledge
Or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated
By the presence of a bicycle in your community.

I’ll warn Erik.

No Joe

Oh

Woe

So…

I don’t know.

Can DtheT take it all the way?

No

Will Hill survive the Hill’s Grill?

She will

Can I use alliteration to its fullest extent?

You betcha

AND

Will Jeb and DtheT ask for equal time on the Bengazi Committee?

After all, today’s ‘hearing’ is free airtime for the putative Democratic candidate for President of the United States, allowing her to look good before her Republican ‘accusers’. When will they figure out it’s not nice to fool with a lady Clinton?

Now you gotta admit that is an eclectic collection of names, but all of them figure into today’s essay about the current state of affairs in the center of the crazy universe, Washington, D.C. Let’s begin.

The Pope came to town a week ago. He delivered a marvelous speech to Congress. John Boehner cried. The next day he said he’s resigning, effective the end of October – i.e., a 4 week notice to let his caucus replace him with somebody. The heir apparent is a nice guy named Kevin McCarthy – all the Republicans like him. And that’s the problem. He’s not radical enough if all of them like him. So who do the radicals want to replace Boehner? A little, skinny guy named Trey Gowdy from the great state of South Carolina. Great state? Home of the original secession; recent site of a mass, race-based hate crime? The state that subsequently – and somewhat begrudgingly – removed the Confederate flag from the statehouse grounds. That move required a significant majority of the state house to agree – what? Yep. Oh – and I almost forgot – home of that inspired Congressman who shouted, “You lie!” during Barack Obama’s first State of the Union address six years ago. That guy, Joe Wilson, still holds his seat. Anybody think the Civil War settled everything? Uh, yeah..no.

So the Pope comes to town, Boehner cries and then resigns, the Republicans are scrambling to figure out how to replace him and Donald The Trumpeter (DtheT for short) continues to be … well, himself. He applauds Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict, saying maybe this Assad guy isn’t so bad. He thinks Vlad the Impaler is a good leader, much better than our own president. And finally, if we let 10,000 Syrians into the country, after he’s elected, DtheT will send them all home. Doesn’t that make you feel all warm & fuzzy towards him?

With all that said, DtheT must be dropping in the polls, right? Ah, no – he’s ahead of Ben Carson, the next best candidate – per the average Republican primary voter – by a factor of 2. Have they lost their minds? The short answer is yes. But I think that’s where this begins to get interesting and worth discussing.

As my regular readers are aware, I refer to members of the Tea Party caucus as Tealiban. Let us recap why I call them that. The Tea Party’s credo, per their website, is as follows:

“Our mission is to bring awareness to any issue
which challenges the security, sovereignty or
domestic tranquility of our beloved nation,
The United States of America.”

Then from the GOP platform:

We support the public display of the Ten Commandments as a reflection of our history and of our country’s Judeo-Christian heritage, and we affirm the right of students to engage in prayer at public school events in public schools and to have equal access to public schools and other public facilities to accommodate religious freedom in the public square.

The Taliban’s credo?

“The Taliban seek to establish the laws of God on earth and prepare(d) to sacrifice everything in pursuit of that goal.”
Mullah Omar, from Things Fall Apart by Byman and Pollock

I don’t see much difference between these two, do you?

The operative word here is tribalism. Be true to your school…roll Tide…we are the champions…you get the idea. Everybody wants to be a part of something – matter to somebody. And in this particular case, the Tealiban, Taliban, ISIS – all of them have that in common. And all are fueled by anger at the status quo, and a desire to change things for what they perceive to be better – regardless of the effect on the larger population. The Tea Party caucus does not care if they shut down the government, with all its accompanying problems and issues, including veterans’ benefits being held up and national parks being closed to visitors. They don’t care because it doesn’t affect their tribe. But for the life of me, I don’t see how shutting down the government advances their stated goal of ensuring the “…security, sovereignty or domestic tranquility” of their alleged, beloved nation. I don’t get it, because I’m not part of their tribe.

The great Edward O. Wilson – biologist, conservationist and author – has some perspective on all this. And when did EO begin to delve into politics? Well, not exactly – not directly anyway. When Ed studied ants and formulated theories about how they work and live, he began to see patterns that he then extrapolated to humans, a most controversial move in its time. So essentially, that makes D.C. a giant anthill? If that were so, the members of the Tea Party caucus would find ways to cooperate, working together for the benefit of the colony. But they and the Taliban want to kick over the anthill and start a new one with their values, principles and objectives. And what are those? Why, whatever they say they are. And why don’t they cooperate? Because they’re angry. Angry at whom? For what? Hard to say, but tribalism doesn’t require logic – or truth.

Back to Boehner and DtheT. How will the Republicans replace the ant queen, er, Boehner? With a fight. Who will win? Your guess is as good as mine. And DtheT? My recommendation is that we just go ahead and elect him president. It gets back to that old saying, “Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it.” President Trump would be a disaster you say? But we’ve had disasters before. Warren G. Harding comes to mind – a man who allegedly gambled away the White House china and fathered an illegitimate child while in office (really – he did – check it out). Another name that comes to mind is Franklin Pierce. Pierce holds the dubious distinction of having sent U.S. Marines to Boston to retrieve a runaway slave and return him to Virginia. Who is Franklin Pierce? None other than the devil’s mother herself, Barbara Pierce Bush’s fourth cousin four times removed. But I digress. My point is, if we survived Warren G. Harding and Franklin Pierce, we would survive Donald Trump. He’ll make a terrible president, but maybe it’s time to give the crazies their man. And that brings me to the last name on the list: Keith Richards. In a recent documentary about Keith, he talked about taking a 7 year break from the ‘Stones and forming his own band. It was only when he did so that he understand the challenges inherent in being the ‘front man’, and had a new appreciation for Mick. He’s gone running back to his old band, and they’ll be on tour again soon. So maybe if the Tealiban have Trey Gowdy running the show as Speaker of the House and Donald Trump in the White House, they’ll figure out the challenges involved in true leadership. Or not – but hey, isn’t it worth a try? What could go wrong?

I’ve been waiting to hear someone cogent talk about the Iran deal and what it really means – for all sides. But, alas, that has not been forthcoming, so I must ‘splain it to you, gentle readers. What’s it all about, Alfie? Why, just as with everything else in history, it’s about the money…the moola…kale…cash…you get the idea.

What? Not politics? Not nuclear arms race? Not: “we’re all doomed to die because the Iranians might get a bomb 15 years from now?” Oh, puhlease…No. It is about the Iranians making lemonade out of lemons. They are not stupid, Hassan Rohani and Ayatollah Khamanei. They haven’t survived in a very difficult arena for this long without being clever. And Rouhani was just what the doctor ordered, when Doctor Khamanei needed him.

Let’s go through this a step at a time. In order to understand it, you have to go back a few years, to the Ahmadinijad era. That’s the fellow who, for all the world, resembles a macaque monkey (see illustrations – see what I mean?) The Ayatollah made a deal with the revolutionary guard – the Quds force – you know, the group Donald the Trumpeter got confused with the Kurds? Maybe he thinks of Kurds with whey and Little Miss Muffet – ooh, but now I’ve seriously digressed. Back to the story, picked up with Monkey Man’s regime.

Way back when, Khamanei made a deal with the Quds force: I’ll give you your chosen guy as president – Monkey Man – in exchange for your support and protection through the difficult years of sanctions being imposed on Iran. Your man will give you all government contracts, and share oil revenue with you. I will get your undying amity. Sweet deal for all of them.

Now for a bit of history. Sanctions began in 1979 but really ratcheted up in the latter part of the first decade of the 21st century. The UN sanctions were imposed beginning in 2006, and Europe joined with the US in putting more of a squeeze on Iran up through 2012. The result was a free fall in the Iranian rial. At the end of 2011, the rial to US dollar rate was officially 11,100. After monkey man was elected to his second term – under a cloud of suspicion of electoral fraud – there were riots in the street. This instability – combined with monkey man’s tinkering with an economy he knew nothing about – the rial began to lose significant value. By the end of 2013, the street exchange rate was 30,000. It’s still hovering in that range. But here’s the thing – Iran was selling oil and getting dollars for it. So when monkey man would make outrageous statements – like denying the Holocaust or saying he was going to blow Israel off the map – he’d get more rials for his dollars. And who profited from all this? Why, his patrons, the Revolutionary Guards. Who suffered from this? Iranian citizens holding rials that were significantly decreasing in value on a daily basis. It was a sweet deal for a long time, but all good things must eventually end. By 2013, Inflation was out of hand in Iran, people were suffering, and folks on the street were seriously complaining about corruption, i.e. inflation making their spending value poorer as it made the Revolutionary Guards richer. A recipe for disaster, sooner or later. So the Ayatollah had to act.

In 2013 there was another election, and Monkey Man couldn’t run, being limited to two terms. He threw his support to a guy named Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei for president, but the Ayatollah had other ideas. Mashaei didn’t make it to the ballot, as Khamanei had another candidate in mind – Hassan Rouhani. And Rouhani won. What a surprise. Who is Hassan Rouhani? The guy who started nuclear negotiations with the EU and the US back in ’05. He registered for the election one month before it was held. And he won with 51% of the vote, compared to the next vote getter with about 18%. Some campaigning, eh? Yeah…So then what happened? All of a sudden, Iran is interested in negotiating away their nuclear program, which had been supported big time by Monkey Man’s regime. Why? Because the Revolutionary Guard had made their money, and were firmly established in owning most of the businesses in Iran. The sanctions were starting to worry them, and they saw no value whatsoever in going nuclear anymore. So Rouhani was the perfect guy to “negotiate” away what they didn’t want anyway. They all must have read the Uncle Remus stories and learned from Brer Rabbit about the briar patch. Smart fellows…and we fell for it hook, line and centrifuge. Now Iran will get their money back that’s been held in foreign banks since ’79. Sanctions will be lifted and life will be good for everybody. And what did they give up? Nothing of any real value.

In summary, I’d say it’s game, set and match for Iran in this deal. They will be free to grow their power and influence throughout the Middle East, with plenty of money to back things up. They will have a happy population that will let them stay in power for the foreseeable future. And what else have they got, gentle readers? Yes, you guessed it. I’d argue they likely already have a bomb..probably at the Parchin facility that nobody’s allowed to inspect.

But, you say, “What good is it if they can’t talk about it? And they certainly can’t without the risk of losing all credibility and seeing sanctions reimposed.”

All true. But the Ayatollah sleeps better at night, knowing if the US threatens any military action against Iran, he has that insurance in a silo a few kilometers outside Tehran. And who would they threaten with it? Why, not the U.S. – way too far away. They’d threaten Israel. And who opposes this nuclear deal? Why, Israel, of course. Why does Israel oppose it? Because they likely know or strongly suspect that Iran has a nuclear weapon. That’s why they haven’t hit them militarily like they did Assad’s al-Kibar facility in Syria back in ’07. So why doesn’t Israel just tell the world that Iran has a bomb? Knowing it and proving it are two different things. It wouldn’t be that hard for Iran to hide it. And I don’t think they have a lot of nuclear weapons – maybe just one or two. But here’s the main point: neither Israel nor Iran would survive a nuclear confrontation between themselves. They both know that. This is a really cold war between the two countries. They use us and Russia as proxies to fight their battles, pretending to threaten each other until we play “good cop/bad cop” and talk then down. But in the end, Israel doesn’t trust the U.S. to defend them if things get interesting and ugly. And they are probably right not to trust us. The folks in charge here at home like to give Israel lip service, but when things get tough, they will fold like a house of cards.

In 1862, Henry Adams said, “Some day science may have the existence of mankind in power, and the human race can commit suicide by blowing up the world.” How right he was. I tried to capture all this in my 3 Act play, “Fearful of the Sixth Extinction.” Check it out under the Writing Tab. And in the coming years, it’s just possible that I’ll be the one to be quoted someday. It could happen – really!

There are now 441 days until election day. Thought I’d jump in with some prognostications, just for fun.

QUESTION: WILL JOE BIDEN RUN FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION?

Answer: Yes, he will. With Elizabeth Warren by his side as his putative running mate, Joe will jump into the race and take the nomination away from Hillary. He’ll say it’s for the good of the party, so he’s doing the right thing for Dems, not for personal gain. Save the brand. Save Obama’s legacy. All that stuff. Yeah.

QUESTION: Will JOE WIN THE PRESIDENCY?

Answer: Uh, nope. But it will make for a more interesting horse race against Jeb, Joe being the colorful character he is. His candidacy will save Hillary from an ignoble defeat. She will never run for public office again. Poor thing. The sad irony is that if somehow hubby Brer Bill could run again, he’d win hands down. Everybody loves him – hates her. Women in particular. Can I explain it? Yes. It’s how women are. They forgive bad boys. They disdain the women that love them, even tho’ all women love bad boys. We can see the flaw in other women, just not in ourselves. Go figure…but that’s why she cannot win and likely won’t even have to endure the defeat, thanks to Crazy Joe (Biden, not Gallo).

QUESTION: WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH THE STOCK MARKET?

ANSWER: Uh, it’s called a correction, and it’s long overdue. China’s stock market was artificially stimulated by the Chinese government, and lacks transparency and credibility. In fact, Chinese businesses shouldn’t be allowed to be publicly traded, because they lie big time about their results – and there’s nobody to police them or check the numbers. It’s all a facade…but there may be some buying opportunities…nah – the market is way too overbought. Would need a huge correction for there to be anything worth buying. Too bad.

QUESTION: What’s the Young ‘Un going to do about the loud speakers dissin’ him from the other side of the DMZ?

ANSWER: Ooh, good question! I’m glad you asked me that. The Young ‘Un is either crazy or a genius – so sayeth Donald the Trumpeter? Nah to both. He is a sheltered young sociopath with innate cunning and survival skills. If he goes too far, it will be because of a misunderstanding or mistake on the part of his close associates – afraid of not being perceived as not tough enough. These skirmishes will continue ad nauseum until one of these times one side or another goes too far, and then we’ll have a nuclear threat. That should be interesting, but not likely anytime soon.

QUESTION: Will Congress approve the nuclear deal with Iran?

The answer is no – then nolo contendre. There will not be enough votes to approve it. The Republicans can’t vote for it, and there are enough Dems interested in keeping their Jewish constituents happy that it’s safer to oppose it. This is particularly true, as everybody knows Obama will veto anything that opposes the deal, and Congress can’t override the veto. That was an easy one. Come on…give me something hard!

QUESTION: What is the biggest concern about the Iran nuclear deal?

ANSWER: Something unexpected, to be sure. Everybody’s worried about Iran cheating or getting the bomb in fifteen years – pish posh. That’s stupid. There’s no incentive to cheat, as they’re just looking for sanction relief as a primary goal. At least for a good while, they won’t cheat because of the west’s itchy trigger finger for reimposing sanctions. Nope – the folk’ you gotta worry about are from ISRAEL. Yes, our allies and not such good friends from the little country on the Mediterranean with paranoid tendencies. As with the Korean deal, a series of misjudgments and delusions will inevitably lead to some kind of confrontation. And it’s likely we’ll see the introduction of the neutron bomb in our lifetime. The what, you say? The neutron bomb. The neocons wanted to play with it back in the 90’s – crazy bastards do crazy things, eh? But it destroys people without destroying real estate. What a neat thing, eh? So next time we’ll do a post about the neutron bomb. Stay tuned for that.

QUESTION: So what are you writing these days?

I’ve developed a scenario for the latest story called The Algorithmic Brain, subtitle: You Don’t Know Jack. It involves Jack the Ripper, cyborgs, Orlando, autism, the law, morals and the CIA. Sound interesting? You betcha!

Well, gentle readers, I’m back, talkin’ about next year’s Presidential election, which is 445 days away. A lot can happen in 445 days, but I’m still clear about a couple of things.

HILLARY CLINTON CANNOT WIN AND SHOULD NOT RUN

I have previously stated that Hillary cannot win the Presidency in 2016, and that Joe Biden should be the Democrat to lose the White House. It’s fitting and proper, and makes sense. Why suffer? In the latest Quinnipiac polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania – three key states in the presidential election – Joe Biden does well – particularly since he isn’t even a declared candidate in the race. Biden does very well in matchups against the Republican knucklehead du jour, Hairball Trump. But against Jeb in those three states, neither Joe nor Hillary beats Jeb. So unless Donald Trump runs as a third party candidate – which the Republican Party will pay him not to do – Jeb wins, as predicted.

TRUMP TOWERS TODAY BUT TANKS TOMORROW

It’s just a question of time before he’s a distant memory. I’ll give him another 60 days, maybe even 90, but then voters will begin to be a bit more serious. The interesting question will be: how much will it cost the Republican party to be rid of El Donaldo the Trumpeter? Gotta cost at least a cool mill – maybe two. It’ll be fun watching how they try to hide it. His ‘candidacy’ has been performance art all along, and he’ll expect to be paid for the performance. Eh?

THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE RACE WON’T BE WHAT YOU EXPECT

Yesterday’s issues: Obamacare, Bengazi and the IRS – won’t resurface since people have such short attention spans. Today’s issues: opening trade with Cuba, the nuclear deal with Iran and immigration – won’t be the key issues that will sway voters as we get closer to election time. What will be the key issue in the election? That varies according to the candidate. If it’s Hillary vs Jeb, for Hill there will be a plethora of issues regarding integrity, the Clinton Foundation and whether or not she’s a good grandmother. For Jeb it will be getting past his brother’s missteps and having to pledge not to repeat them. That shouldn’t be hard for Jeb. The devil will promise anything to get his way. And if I get my wish and it’s Joe Biden? Who cares? He’ll just be fun to watch.

You heard it here first.